What is the most reliable Poll?

[goclark]

Help me understand what Poll has been right on the money for all the states that have voted?

I am tired of reading Polls and not knowing which is best.

[MadBadger]

1. Survey USA is the best polling company this cycle.

[maseman]

11. Looking at one poll is not the way

Go to www.realclearpolitics.com and you must look at various polls and aggregate together for an average for the best result. It increases the sanmple sizes and reduces statistical bounce from poll to poll.

They are all done pretty well as long as they are legitimate.

[MadBadger]

14. I go to RCP all the time. Speaking purely though of which single poll is most reliable, its SUSA

Problem with RCP, is they dont include some good polling companies like PPP, but do include shittier ones like Insider Advantage, Mason-Dixon and ARG.

[maseman]

16. I'm not trying to pick a fight or anything

but why do you think SUSA is the best?

[MadBadger]

20. They were rated Number 1 Most Accurate Pollster on a Polling Report Card

Was on the money in California, absolutely nailing it. They were right on in Maryaland and Virginia.

[maseman]

21. I'll have to check that out.

I do surveys and research for a living. Not political but in essence all polling is done about the same way. Most companies don't do anything dramatically different vis a vis phone research, internet, etc.

[goclark]

17. I like real clear ~ thanks a lot

[Arkansas Granny]

19. I go to RCP every day. It's also important to look at who is being

polled by the different pollsters. Some poll all adults that will answer their questions, others only poll registered or likely voters.

[Lucinda]

15. I agree. I think SUSA has been most accurate.

[AtomicKitten]

2. The one that shows my candidate is winning.

:)

[goclark]

10. LOL ~ I really want to know

I went to the Survey USA website but I don't see a comparison.

I want to know it like this ---

California prediction --- final result

Texas Prediction ----- final result etc.

[1awake]

3. from what I can tell looking around here

recently.. the most reliable poll, seems to be the one that best supports you candidate of choice.

[annabanana]

4. One with a "Keith Number" attached!

He takes the % of "undecided" and adds it to the "+" or "-" figure that you see after the poll numbers..

That number will tell you how much you can count on the actual accuracy of the poll. It's a good number, and I'm glad he's adding it to his poll numbers

[goclark]

6. Do you mean Keith Olberman?

I don't have a clue because I see some saying Clinton is up 10 in Texas and the next saying Obama up 11 in Texas.

Who has the best track record for the Primaries?

[pinto]

5. Elections.

No snark here, I'm tired of polls, as well. I'll be fine with an election.

[no name no slogan]

9. It's the only one that counts, too

beat me to it

[DavidDvorkin]

7. The one that shows my candidate ahead

At least, that seems to be a popular standard on DU.

[NJSecularist]

8. SurveyUSA has been by far the most reliable.

[goclark]

12. What are they saying about Texas and Ohio today? nt

[NJSecularist]

13. Obama is up by 4 in Texas and down 5 in Ohio

Rasmussen, another reliable pollster, is saying the same thing.

[goclark]

18. Thanks ~ that is much better than the Blowout

that HC needs ~ right?
PS/ Not trying to pick a fight by any means.

[maseman]

22. If Obama wins by exactly these margins

I don't see how HC could come back. He would end up with the majority of Texas and a little less than the majority of Ohio's. But it would be a huge blow to Hillary.

[high density]

23. Who knows

Polls don't predict anything, they capture a snapshot in time. Most polls are still showing 10% undecideds, so nobody knows who is going to win until we see the exit poll results.

[NEDem]

24. Election Day.

[demosincebirth]

25. I go to Pollingreport.com, and get 'um all

[grantcart]

26. This one is the easiest to look at all of them

http://www.pollster.com/polls/

[goclark]

27. Thanks ~ this is my favorite so far

It gives a clear picture of where the truth may be someplace in the middle.

Thanks again

[Sir Jeffrey]

28. Survey USA is the best for state matchups...

Gallup Tracking is the best for looking at the national race.

Rasmussen is pretty good too. He was off a bit because of the turnout figures, but he seems to have corrected that problem.

American Research Group and Zobgy seem to be off significantly at times, so I would take them with a grain of salt.

Usually what I do is check the trends across polls for a specific contest. If three polls(for example, Gallup, SUSA and Research 2000) have Clinton ahead in OH by between 6-8 points, and Zogby has Obama up by 2, then it is pretty safe to assume Zogby is wrong.