PA preview: Demographic, polling, and geopolitical analysis

[usregimechange]

Pennsylvania has 188 delegates up for grabs. The state votes on April 22nd.

Initial demographic data indicates an overall Clinton advantage over Obama:

Pennsylvania (188 delegates)
Persons of Hispanic or Latino origin, percent, 2006: 4.2% Much less than national average (++Obama)
Black persons, percent, 2006: 10.7% Less than national average (+Clinton)
Persons 65 years old and over, percent, 2006: 15.2% More than national average (+Clinton)
Bachelor's degree or higher, pct of persons age 25+, 2000: 22.4% Less than national average (+Clinton)
(Overall advantage: Clinton)

However, the assumptions that these are based on have changed given Obama's pilfering from Clinton's base support. For example, Obama's support among working class democrats has improved in recent elections. In Wisconsin, for example, he won among voters with no college degree 56% - 43%.

Polls in 2008 indicate significant trending in favor of Obama:



Clinton's once strong lead in the state continues to fall:



Where are the people?



Where are the Democrats?

Put simply the Democrats in PA are in the cities. Primarily, they are in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh, population = 1,223,411), and mostly in Philadelphia (population = 1,479,339). Kerry won in PA largely because of the massive Philadelphia urban vote. Kerry won the city by 81% or by 412,106 votes, which was enough to win the state by 51%.

The 2004 Presidential PA results:




Philadelphia's African American population is at 43.2% according to the 2000 census:



Philadelphia's Latino population is at 8.5% according to the 2000 census:



Philadelphia is the 5th largest city in the United States:



Philadelphia is both the key to Obama's victory in April and this November... The cities mayor, Michael Nutter has endorsed Clinton but expect the cities population to not follow suit.



http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/Seth77

[Alhena]

1. It's 7 weeks from OH-TX to the PA primary. I don't think the party will wait

I expect Dean will make sure superdelegates start choosing sides in large numbers after Tuesday. We can't have 7 more weeks of sniping while McCain just raises money for the general election.

[usregimechange]

2. My guess is that Clinton will not quit this race easily.

[usregimechange]

3. and PA will be the last nail in the coffin

[grantcart]

11. very nice

I think it will be the last nail because when they see the polls tightening a lot of super delegates will not want to drag it out. Had it remained with a big Hillary lead they may have been tempted to wait.

[usregimechange]

14. I hope so but still think she would rip out her own eyes before quiting for the party

I hope I am wrong.

[grantcart]

15. These people are not stupid - I think that they have known for a long time

that it was Obama's to lose and they just stayed in the game to see if he might slip up. Now however with money streaming in there is no incentive to stop. They know they cannot win but they are bringing in a million dollars a day. My thesis is that they are not spending a lot on ad buys and just building up this huge war chest that she can use for future campaigns and also use to contribute to other dems so she can build support for a leadership position - Majority Leader for example.

The thing that made me think that is her flip answer, "Oh I'll release my tax records - but not yet". Maybe they can pull in another 10 million between now and Mar 4th. pay off their debt - get the loan back and she leaves on a high note and everyone thinks how gracious she is.

Just a guess.

[usregimechange]

19. Could be... hummm

[Exilednight]

24. She's running for HER party, not the Democratic party or the DNC.

[susankh4]

27. I believe Gov. Rendell would disagree with you

he is campaigning hot and heavy for Hillary.

Alot can happen in seven weeks. No telling what we'll know about our candidates by then that we don't know now.....

[JimGinPA]

4. I Live Here And Didn't Know A Lot Of These Things

Nice Job.


:toast:

[usregimechange]

5. Thank you

[scheming daemons]

6. I Live in PA...

Pittsburgh (Allegheny county) is the second-oldest county in the nation (behind Miami-Dade) as far as average age.

These old folks aren't as racially tolerant as younger folks, and this SHOULD be fertile Clinton area.


Philly is going to go for Obama in a MAJOR way, despite Gov. Rendell's Clinton endorsement (Rendell used to be Philly mayor).


The center "T" of the state, has more hunters-per-capita than any other region of the country. This is VERY VERY VERY anti-Clinton country. That area of PA may have more Clinton-haters than any other comparable section of the country.

Basically... Pittsburgh area usually goes 50-50 Dem/GOP.... and then it is just a question as to whether Philly turnout can offset all the rednecks in the center "T" of the state.


Someone once described PA as "Pittsburgh in the West, Philadelphia in the East, and Alabama in the middle". That was accurate.

[usregimechange]

7. Ha! Seems to be true. Thanks for your insight...

[goodgd_yall]

10. Didn't know this about PA

I was looking at the map in the OP and surprised there is so much GOP territory there. Didn't know about the hunters per capita thing either.

[usregimechange]

13. Much like MO really. KC 20% Dem lead, STLC dark blue, Jeff city light blue and then RED nothing but

[TheDonkey]

22. Central PA is extremely backwards and rethuglican. Philly and Pittsburgh are our only hope in GE

most of the burned on Philly.

[I Vote In Pittsburgh]

18. We've got a lot of old folks in pittsburgh, but also a lot of college students

I know first hand that many college students from CMU, upitt, and duquesne stayed home last election, which hopefully won't happen this time.

I'm amazed that there are so many people in Pittsburgh because of how "rural" it seems and how few dense commercial areas there are. I guess the city is more sprawling than I realize.

[usregimechange]

20. Maybe they will come out for Obama and or get registered for Nov

[NJSecularist]

8. Good post

Pennsylvania, by its demographics, is a state that should favor Hillary. In addition, since it is a closed primary, Obama won't have the luxury of being able to get the independent vote. That being said, he has shown the ability to eat into Clinton's base in states like Wisconsin, but this is an uphill battle for him.

[usregimechange]

9. True but the hill is getting smaller and smaller

[tabasco]

12. Hillary was wearing a black & gold outfit whe she was yelling about Obama.

That's probably worth a few votes in Pittsburgh.

I'm voting for Obama but she looked great in that black and gold suit.

[usregimechange]

16. She will be a Steelers fan for votes

[usregimechange]

17. Because in addition to a law suit against TX Dems, she would do anything to get elected

[blue neen]

21. Thanks for the demographics.

If this primary is still a contest in April, PA will be HUGH!!!!!

Actually, it will interesting, for a change. :)

[JPZenger]

23. Eastern PA has become much more Latino since 2000

The Latino population of eastern PA has increased greatly since the 2000 census, many of whom moved from New York and New Jersey. There have been some estimates prepared by the State, and I see it everyday from personal experience.

[Exilednight]

25. The Poconos have also seen a large influx in the African-American population. The ...

demographics have largely shifted in the rural parts of Pa. The 2000 census is not the best data to go by.

[Yael]

26. We had about 100 people show up during a bad ice/show storm

a few weeks ago for an Obama volunteer meeting.

Last night, it was clear, dry and 40 degrees. The Clinton meeting had about 20 (and was in a better location).

South-central PA just may surprise people. I heard the other day that our county is the most Republican (per capita) in the state.

Interestingly enough, we have had republicans (who HATE anything Clinton) ask for Obama information. They said that politics the "old way" wasn't working and they are willing to give Senator O a chance.

[susankh4]

28. I'll be working PA

if Hillary is still in the running for their primary.

And KY. And IN.

As long as I have a horse in this race I'll be in!