Ohio delegate/primary analysis ... link

[Alhena]

There has been a lot of discussion of Texas's delegate situation, which favors Obama, but not so much about Ohio's. These two links give a good idea of the situation there.

http://www.buckeyestateblog.com/ohio_primary_analysis

http://www.ohiodems.org/site/c.mhLRKZPCLmF/b.3909931/

It looks like the delegate situation is more evenly divided than Texas as far as benefits to the candidates. The main thing to watch out for is even numbered districts- if there are 4 delegates in a district, a candidate needs 62.5% of the vote to avoid a 2-2 split, and if there are 6 delegates in a district a candidate needs 58% of the vote to avoid a split.

So if you're Obama you don't want to see one of your better districts have an even number of delegates, and that's the case with some of his better districts such as CD-15, home to Ohio State, and CD-1, home to Cincinnati. On the other hand, Hillary has some strong even-numbered districts such as CD-14 with 6 delegates likely to split 3-3.

Obama has an 8-delegate majority black district which includes eastern Cleveland - CD 11. The best Hillary can hope for here is a 5-3 split and a 6-2 split may be more likely. So this district looks to be a strong Obama bulwark against Hillary getting a big delegate lead out of Ohio. Obama's overwhelming lead among black voters will make the even-numbered nature of the district irrelevant.

[caseycoon]

1. K&R Very informative. Thanks n/t

[Independent-Voter]

2. Thanks for the heads up. I love this kind of minutia.

[NJSecularist]

3. The number #1 key to me for Obama to win Ohio

is to rack up very large margin of victory in Cuyahoga County. That would be a good start. He needs a great showing in Franklin County too. Same thing in Hamilton and Montgomery. Basically, he needs to build a big enough lead in some of these urban counties to brunt the blow from losses in several moderately sized suburb counties like Wayne, Warren, Delaware, etc that Hillary should carry by decent margins. He needs to have a respectable showing in the Greater Cleveland area also.

But his chances to win the state start with a great showing (60-40, 65-35) in Cuyahoga County and go from there. If he can't get large margins in Cuyahoga, he has virtually no chance to win the state.

[ieoeja]

4. What happened to Obama's rural dominance?

In Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada most of Hillary's support came from the most densely populated districts. While Obama dominated the rest of those states.

I understand Hillary's falling support with African-Americans costing her city votes. But why is she now beating Obama in the countryside? Why did that turn around?

[NJSecularist]

5. Each state is different

And Ohio is very different from Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada.

If Obama wants to win Ohio, he needs to build his leads in urban counties like Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Montgomery, the 4 largest counties in Ohio.

[ieoeja]

6. I suspect it's about time.

He spent months running in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina (which I forgot to mention; but he won the rural areas there as well).

He's spent no more than a week or two running in all the states since then. So he is stuck going after the voter rich targets leaving her as the default/name-recognition candidate for the rural areas.

I had hoped that with two full weeks to campaign in Texas and Ohio, he'd have enough time to turn that around. And he might. The analysis in the OP's link was five primaries ago.

[NJSecularist]

7. I doubt it

Some of these rural areas would be firmly Clinton regardless of how much time Obama spent in Ohio.