I no longer think Clinton is going to win Ohio.

[Perky]

I am have been perusing the internal numbers and it is very clear that leate breakers are breaking for Obama. That is simply the way things happpen with late breakes. theare is still about 7% undecided and he is only 2% down.


The big number I have seen is that it looks like there s no substantial gender gap amnong women. That is the Clinton Firewall.and without it she may be in trouble.


I am not saying it is not going to be close....But the combination of AA voters and SEIU agains something less than 55% among white women speaks of considerable erosion making this one even, and if the Obama Groundgame is working she might loss 52% to 48% or something like that.



This was a completee do over post because I had not reaslized someone had already poster the Rockefeller news.



Oh btw.....OBama has nrtted 29 ne Super Delegaes in the past 15 days. that will offset any actual gain Hillary gets form winning Ohio or Rhode Island.

[Abacus]

1. This is so 30 minutes ago /nt

:)

[Perky]

2. Rats...Now I need a new topic fast. befor the edit period ends.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

8. I'm liking the English in the 100 Year War

I have the Earl of Richmond beating the point spread...

[flyarm]

19. before edit period expires, please hit spell check! eom

[Chipper Chat]

3. Yea. This is a biggie.

Thanks for the post. I dont care if it's 30 min old / I just got up.

[AtomicKitten]

4. That is a particularly important endorsement.

He apparently "gets" those red phone moments.

[Eurobabe]

20. Proud to know you

Atomic Hussein Kitten :hi:

- 48 Hussein Percenter

[AtomicKitten]

22. Back Hussein At Ya!!!

[donheld]

5. It's news to me

thanks

[loveangelc]

6. idk i think she can still win in ohio. tx will be harder for her.

[gasperc]

7. Rasmussen today, 47C-45O

her 14 point lead from less than 2 weeks ago, totally gone, telling

[Skip Intro]

9. Could you share some of those "internal numbers" with us?

maybe a link or something?

[NJSecularist]

10. Internal numbers... late breakers?

Could you give me an example of these?

Which specific polls are you referring to?

[Perky]

16. Two Sources

http://images.chron.com/content/news/photos/08/02/28/Reuters_2day_022808_OH_DEM.pdf

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary

[K Gardner]

11. There are 27% undecideds in Rhode Island. Also huge university/professional population and

above average income demographics. She'll carry it, but it could be closer than everyone thinks. Obama will be there on Saturday.

[Independent-Voter]

12. I still think she wins in a squeaker, but she's got plenty of time to piss away that remaining 2%

in the next few days. Her campaign has been one goatfuck after another.

[hogwyld]

14. The power of positive thinking at work.

I'm positive Hillary will find a way to fuck that goat.

[hogwyld]

13. Are you in one of the campaigns?

How do you get your hands on internal polling?

[Perky]

15. OOPS sorry....my Bad... When I say internals I mean breakouts

by race gender age, income, party etcerera. I do not have access to any internal polling from the campaigns... I do not work for any campaign.

[mohc]

17. Ahh crosstabs

I thought that might have been what you meant. The problem is only SurveyUSA gives the full cross tabs for free (does anyone have Rasmussen membership that could peek at their crosstabs?). Being able to see the demographic breakdowns of the undecided vote, as well as issue preferences, can at least give people an guess as to which way they are most likely to go.

[Perky]

18. Zogby has them to

pretty much the same design as surveyUSA. It is a BDF however.


I would love to see Rasmussens too.

[ORDem]

21. Join the club. n/t

[MadBadger]

23. I think the Clinton Internal numbers may be showing this

That is why they came out and said today that Obama has to win all four or else she wisn. I think they see something in their own numbers that they dont like, and know its going to be close.

[loveangelc]

24. I think if anything it's Texas that her internals show her losing.

Bill Clinton seemed very confident that she would win Ohio. They don't seem that way with TX.