Reality check: the popular vote stands at 50-46 (minus Florida and Michigan)

[jackson_dem]

Edwards has still amassed 3% of the vote and the remaining 1% is split among the rest. When you look at the vote totals of the top two candidates it is 52-48 for Obama. When Florida is included*, as it rightfully should be, Obama's popular vote advantage dwindles from 4.7% to 2.98% (51.49-48.51. It would be misleading to round these numbers, since they are so close to the traditional cut-off mark, to 51-49). For all the hype, for all the talk about how one candidate has a monopoly on inspiration and hope (wtf do you think the other 50% who voted for someone not named Obama are voting based on? Despair?), the talk about Hillary being rejected when the people have spoken it has essentially been a tie.

*Florida has a stronger case but it should not be forgotten that no one but Obama deserves blame for removing his name from the Michigan ballot in order to pander to Iowa. Hillary won over 300,000 votes in Michigan. Add that to her total and the tally for the top two candidates stands at 50.7-49.3%. If you give Obama 35% of the Michigan vote, which is what the exit poll showed he would have received had he been on the ballot (Edwards would have gotten 12%), it is 51.1-48.9 minus Edwards and the others.

None of this breaks down where the votes came from. The exit polls have clearly and consistently shown rethugs and "independents" are overwhelmingly voting for one candidate while a different candidate leads among Democratic votes cast. Four states have been flipped by "independents" and rethugs and one state, Missouri, was flipped by rethugs alone (rethugs voted 75-21 for Obama...).

[The Anti-Bush]

1. You can't change the rules half way through the game.

And when it comes down to it, if he has 1 more delegate than Hillary he still wins, doesn't he? Right now, he's got over 100 more delegates. He's won 11 straight primaries.

Those are the facts. That's the great thing about numbers.

[jackson_dem]

3. If Hillary has one more delegate she wins

Despite the lopsided Hillary hate on DU the real world has been split evenly between the two candidates.

You are putting on the Obama spin. "11 straight". Land doesn't vote, people do. The popular vote stands at 50-46 minus Florida and Michigan. Winning DC or Nebraska is not the same as winning California or New York. Obamites, taking a page from the rethug playbook from 2000 and 2004, suddenly believe each state's vote has equal weight as they now agree with the rethugs that land votes.

[The Anti-Bush]

7. Yes, that's called math. Right now Obama has more.

And he has won 11 straight states. That's not Obama math, that's just... regular math. And the PEOPLE in those states said they want Obama.

I know that only Hillary's states are supposed to count, but the vast majority of the country seems to think different. Will those states count if Hillary comes back and needs them to win the GE?

[jackson_dem]

12. Obama has 1,369 and Clinton has 1,267 with 2,025 needed to win

Let's have all the votes counted and see how things shake out. My earlier post was an allusion to superdelegates, which you missed. If your argument is the rules shouldn't be changed then you can't complain if Obama has a narrow lead in pledged delegates but loses the supers.

I know rethugs and Obamites (often one and the same) think land votes but people do. California has 36 million people; Wyoming has 600,000. Speaking of math, if you win 80% of the vote in Wyoming (for the sake of argument let's say everyone in the state votes) you get 480,000 votes. If you get 51% in California you get 18.4 million votes. Get it?

[The Anti-Bush]

15. That's if you count the supers, which will change.

Nice try though. Concrete... Pledged delegates give him a wider margin.

And FL and MI aren't going to count.

And when it comes down to it... a win is a win. And right now, Obama has WON more votes than Hillary. Deal with it.

[jackson_dem]

38. You have a crystal ball? They may switch to Hillary after OH, TX, PA, NC, IN, KY, etc.

FL and MI may count, especially FL. If they don't say hello to President McCain.

Where did anyone say Obama hasn't currently won slightly more votes than Clinton? Can you not read or are you "obligated" to parrot Axlerod's talking points? ;)

[The Anti-Bush]

42. If this and if that... Blah Blah Blah...

Yes, they may change... If Hillary wins them. However, unless she wins BIG it's not going to matter. Right now, she is literally clinging to an ever-shrinking lead in OH and Obama leads in TX.

Since you get to rely on "ifs" & "ands" so do I.

And right now, the polls say he is gonna win. Right now the FACT is that he IS winning.

And right NOW, MI & FL don't count. Now, if YOU have a crystal ball that can show me a different result, whip it out.

Otherwise, this is just empty rhetoric... You know, the stuff you guys FALSELY accuse Obama of.

[cali]

9. Yeah, yeah. 11 straight wins is just Obama spin.

The truth is that SDs are starting to flow strongly Obama's way. She now only has 45 or 46 more than he has. That should be a clue that the SDs are looking at things in a manner that doesn't jibe with your spin. She's downplaying expectations for next Tuesday in a ridiculous way. She's not going to get that 1 more than Obama has delegate.

[jackson_dem]

14. What spin? 50-46 is a fact in the reality-based community

Only in kool aid land do they think the vote tally is 80-18.

Yes, the sd's are shifting to Obama but in the real world that can easily change based on what happens on Tuesday and then in Pennsylvania.

[The Anti-Bush]

16. That's right! Obama WINNING 50-46.

Spin it how you want, but right now Obama is winning. I don't care what the margin is.

[jackson_dem]

21. Good for him. No on is saying he isn't winning heading into the fourth quarter

[The Anti-Bush]

25. Not only is he winning... He's pulling away!

Or did you miss that 61%-38% popular vote for him since Super Tuesday?

yeah, that's what I thought.

[jackson_dem]

27. Just like Jeff Gordon was in the NASCAR race last week!

And how the Patriots were leading the Giants with about 3 minutes left in the Super Bowl!

[The Anti-Bush]

31. Patriots weren't pulling away... and this isn't a game.

If you think it is, then maybe you are in the wrong place. Most of here think this is more important than a football game.

And in case you missed it... Hillary's 20%+ leads in TX & OH are gone.

[jackson_dem]

39. Oh. You mean like Obama was pulling away in NH when he was inevitable?

:rofl:

Your posting style is amazingly similar to a cat who posts here. ;)

[The Anti-Bush]

43. I'm sorry, but wasn't Hillary supposed to be the Inevitable candidate?

Didn't she say this would all be over on Super Tuesday? Hmmm.....

[billbuckhead]

58. Obama's been winning with Republican mischief votes is what's happening

That's why :tinfoilhat:bama fellated Reagans corpse to make it easier for Republicans to cross over and vote against this ultra scary woman candidate who had been in the White House before.

[populistdriven]

59. The OP conveniently overlooks the fact that Obama has One Million Contributors

Huge crowds at events

HC doesn't even come close

[jsamuel]

11. ironic

[jackson_dem]

17. Is it funny or sad?

The funny part is obvious but it is kind of sad some are mindlessly parroting talking points without rationally thinking about them. If you take that position then you can't honestly complain about superdelegates.

[The Anti-Bush]

22. What is sad is that you ignore anything you disagree with.

I don't are which numbers you use... They all say the same thing. Obama is winning.

[jackson_dem]

24. Who is saying he isn't winning heading into the 4th quarter?

[The Anti-Bush]

26. look up n/t

[shraby]

2. No one removed their names from the ballot

because they wanted to pander to anyone..they were asked to remove their names by the Democratic party. Obama and Edwards did, Hillary did not.

[The Anti-Bush]

4. In addition...

Hillary won MI because she was essentially uncontested. She won in FL because of name recognition. Plain and simple.

We have seen it time and time again. She has a big lead until Obama's campaign shows up in a state. We are seeing it in Ohio and Texas RIGHT NOW!

If you want to count FL & MI, then have a do-over. Let them campaign. Anything less is unethical.

[cali]

5. whatever. you're so caught up in minutia that you're oblivious

to the bigger picture: Barring a miracle, it's over. FL and MI are no longer a big deal. Whether she stays in after next Tuesday or doesn't, there's virtually no way she gets the nomination now.

[Zachstar]

60. And even if she somehow does.

It will be almost too late to defeat the republicans. They have their leader and are getting all sorts of free time and ammo to use against Clinton (And a little against Obama)

Clinton can no longer wave a wand and destroy the republican candidate. If she wins its going to be another 2004 in my view.

[Independent-Voter]

6. Seems like someone's got sand in their bathing suit. Your argument is for shit.

[jackson_dem]

8. The facts are "shit"?

There are the vote totals. I know Axlerod's kool aid makes folks believe the vote tally is 120% to 2% for the messiah but the real world total is 50-46.

[The Anti-Bush]

13. So what makes your numbers the final word and mine spin?

Just curious? Oh, yeah, those support your candidate... Kind of. Obama still wins by your numbers. So, hey, I like those too.

[jackson_dem]

19. Yours are made up, mine are based on actual vote tallies

[The Anti-Bush]

29. Made UP? Are you kidding me?

So, it's made up that in the last 11 primaries, Obama has won every single on... By an average of 20%.

It's made up that he leads overall delegates by 100+, and leads pledged delegates by 150+

It's made up that since Super Tuesday he has gotten 60%+ of popular vote?

Wow. Amazing. Absolutely Amazing.

Numbers don't lie. You can spin them all you want, but they still say the same thing. Obama is winning.

[Independent-Voter]

47. What sort of multiplier are you using for caucaus returns, if any?

[The Anti-Bush]

52. Multiplier? Just raw numbers. That's all that matters.

He is winning the popular vote.
He is winning the pledged delegates.
He has won 11 straight primaries.

That's all I got. And I think that's all I need. No spin. That's just how it is.

OP is saying that Hillary is really winning by losing. And she might pull it out if they count FL and if they count MI and if this and if that.

Yeah, if everything, and I do mean EVERYTHING falls right for Hillary, she will win. And if she does, then I will vote for her.

Right now, she is not winning, no matter what numbers you use.

[Perky]

10. Since Super Tuesday however it has been 61% to 38%

[The Anti-Bush]

18. Those don't count! They don't support Hillary's cause! n/t

[jackson_dem]

23. The votes before 2/9 still count and are far more numerous than the post-ST votes

The trend is with Obama but that could change. What if it is 61-38 the rest of the way after March 4?

[The Anti-Bush]

36. And as I recall, Hillary has NEVER had a lead in the pledged delegates.

NEVER! Not ONE time!

And... What if pigs fly? But if by some miracle there is a HUGE turnaround, and she somehow pulls it out, then she wins. Plain and simple. I'm not gonna try and spin the numbers to support Obama.

I never have. Although, I suppose I haven't had to either.

[Perky]

40. I think we would all kiss the November election away.

I would not blame Clinton for that at all but I think we would probably end up with a Delegate tie. A war over Florida and Michigan and no matter how it turned out vitriol so systemic that we could never put the party back together in time.

i have never said that I would be upset if HRC took it all the way to Denver. SH has earned the right to do that. But if she Drops both Oh and TX. I just do not see how she could recover..... with the reaming delegates that would ba available.... As a practical matter I think the Party Elders would need to step in and try and convince her to take a deal.

Majority leader, Keynote Address....Lead on Healthcare reform. If she will not take a deal like that I suspect the Super Delegates are going to move pretty quickly to Obama. I wouldn't fault he at all for continuing on because like I have said,she has earned the right, I just think it would hurt the party and she would not win.

[K Gardner]

20. Oh for god's sakes. Knock yourself out, you got four more days.

[jackson_dem]

28. Why are Obamites having such a visceral reaction to the truth, the vote count, being posted?

Is it because it contradicts Axlerod's doctrine that holds Obama is winning overwhelmingly because he is the greatest candidate ever?

[rodeodance]

30. Some many of them seem to be more agitated today than usual.

[jackson_dem]

41. They will never admit it but they are worried about Tuesday

They bought the Obama myth that when his feet touch the ground in a state, being the savior, he automatically gains 20 points a week. They ignored the other factors in his climbing numbers in the other states. Before Super Tuesday it was the momentum he got from swiftboating the Clintons on race and winning South Carolina on racial lines as well as Edwards dropping out and the vast majority of his support transferring to Obama. Then for 2/9 and 2/12 he got a boost from fighting to a draw on Super Tuesday. 2/9 helped fuel 2/12, which helped fuel him in Wisconsin. Guess what? There hasn't been anything since 2/19 to give him a special shot of turbocharged momentum. He has been on his own and has basically stalled in Ohio and Texas. He trails in the former and leads slightly in the latter with the possibility that the debate will shift things back to Hillary. It is now possible that he will lose both, along with Rhode Island. Obamites were expecting him to be up by 20-30 points right now because of the myth but it hasn't happened so it has created anger and bitterness. I can't wait to see them next Tuesday... :rofl:

[The Anti-Bush]

34. I don't think I said that. But thanks for putting words in my mouth.

It is truly sad that you cannot even accept facts. It is REALLY sad that your OWN numbers show Obama winning, and you still gotta try to spin it.

I guess when a candidate has great plans and a clean record you gotta use whatever you can get your hands on, but really, this is just sad.

[cali]

37. You're mistaking amused contempt for

a visceral reaction. You're missing the forest for the trees in the most classic of ways. It really is over. She has virtually no path to the nomination unless he implodes in spectacular manner. Whether he's the suckiest candidate or the greatest is irrelevant to that. And it's not so much that he's winning overwhelmingly as it is that she's losing resoundingly.

[jackson_dem]

46. Herman Edwards: "That's why they play the game"

If is critical for her to fight onto PA. Let's see what shape 0bama is in by then after the msm and rethugs finally start attacking him a bit like they have done to Hillary for 16 years...then there is the Rezko trial...

[The Anti-Bush]

49. Another football reference. You do know this isn't a game... right?

It is amazing how you continue to compare the two.

[jackson_dem]

50. It might not be a sport but it sure has resembled American Idol

[The Anti-Bush]

53. There is a big difference between the two.

The patriots losing, that only really affected one city. This, the primaries, they affect the ENTIRE COUNTRY... and really, the ENTIRE WORLD.

If you are a patriots fan, right now, you can't stand the Giants. So tell me something, If Hillary does lose, and Obama does win, where will you stand then. That will tell me everything I need to know about you.

[rodeodance]

32. You brighten the day JD--thanks and a REC

[elixir]

33. That's right, JD. Also, the MI/FL pledge did not require that candidates stay off the ballot..

the language is:
THEREFORE, I _______________, Democratic Candidate for President, in honor and in accordance with DNC rules, pledge to actively campaign in the pre-approved early states Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina. I pledge I shall not campaign or participate in any election contest occurring in any state not already authorized by the DNC to take place in the DNC approved pre-window (any date prior to February 5, 2008). Campaigning shall include but is not limited to purchasing media or campaign advocacy of any kind, attending or hosting events of more than 200 people to promote one’s candidacy for a preference primary and employing staff in the state in question. It does not include activities specifically related to raising campaign resources such as fundraising events or the hiring of fundraising staff.

This is very clear.

[jackson_dem]

48. Thanks for destroying another Axlerod myth

:thumbsup:

"Campaigning shall include but is not limited to purchasing media or campaign advocacy of any kind,"

Yet Obama still ran ads in Florida and despite cheating still lost Florida by 300,000 votes...

[GeorgeGist]

35. Since I haven't looked at the vote totals ...

of the top two candidates, and you haven't made an effort to provide them, I don't see squat.

[jackson_dem]

44. Here you go

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2008_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

Not including Florida

0 10.3 million (52%)
H 9.4 million 47%)

Including Florida

0 10.9 million (51.49%)
H 10.25 million (48.51%)

The same numbers can be found at http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html along with state by state breakdowns. I highlighted her big wins to show how, despite losing the vast majority of states, she is basically tied in the popular vote. Look at where her wins came and her raw vote margins there.

State Date % Vote In Obama Clinton
Popular Vote Total - - 10,305,403 9,379,822
Popular Vote (w/FL) - - 10,881,617 10,250,808
Popular Vote (w/FL & MI)* - - 10,881,617 10,579,117

Democrats Abroad 02/21 100% 14,937 7,439
Wisconsin 02/19 100% 646,007 452,795
Hawaii 02/19 100% 28,347 8,835
Virginia 02/12 99% 628,055 349,829
Maryland 02/12 99% 523,587 310,965
District of Columbia 02/12 100% 88,232 27,865
Louisiana 02/09 100% 220,632 136,925
Nebraska 02/09 100% 26,126 12,445
California 02/05 100% 2,007,934 2,432,459
New York 02/05 100% 697,914 1,003,623
Illinois 02/05 99% 1,301,954 662,845
New Jersey 02/05 100% 487,046 597,329
Massachusetts 02/05 100% 511,887 704,591
Georgia 02/05 100% 704,247 330,026
Minnesota 02/05 99% 142,088 68,980
Missouri 02/05 100% 405,466 395,013
Tennessee 02/05 100% 251,692 335,745
Colorado 02/05 99% 79,590 38,699
Arizona 02/05 100% 193,126 229,501
Alabama 02/05 100% 300,143 222,897
Connecticut 02/05 100% 179,720 165,406
Arkansas 02/05 100% 82,010 219,416
Oklahoma 02/05 100% 130,130 228,480
Kansas 02/05 100% 27,172 9,462
New Mexico 02/05 100% 71,396 73,105
Utah 02/05 99% 70,414 48,766
Delaware 02/05 100% 50,467 39,984
North Dakota 02/05 100% 11,625 6,948
Idaho 02/05 100% 16,880 3,655
Alaska 02/05 100% 6,674 2,194
Florida 01/29 100% 576,214 870,986
South Carolina 01/26 100% 294,898 140,990
Michigan* 01/15 100% - 328,309
New Hampshire 01/08 100% 105,007 112,610

Iowa, Nevada, Washington & Maine Have Not Released Popular Vote Totals)

Still, I commend you for having so much "faith" that you thought these numbers were made up despite being consistent with the real results so far.

[The Anti-Bush]

45. So, no matter how you spin it... Obama is winning. Thanks. n/t

[jackson_dem]

51. Why the constant need to reassure yourself that he retains the lead with 50%?

[The Anti-Bush]

54. I don't need to reassure myself of anything. The facts are facts.

Why do you feel the need to belittle all the states who didn't vote for hillary? I'm sorry, I thought we ALL counted. I guess I was wrong.

Furthermore, I find your gross misrepresentation of the facts to be both ill-conceived and ignorant.

You aren't able to give me anything new, and so I refuse to have a battle of whits with an unarmed opponent.

Have a nice day.

[The Anti-Bush]

55. And one more thing, before I go.

I will assume that since you didn't answer my question about whether or not you would support Obama if he holds his lead and wins, that you would not.

That being the case, I'm gonna wait a few minutes and wait for a response before I just add you to ignore.

[jackson_dem]

56. As I have said numerous times I will support the nominee--vigorously

It is laughable that my Democratic credentials (and those of others) are questioned by some here simply because we are critical of Obama. Nobody who knows me in the real world would doubt my Democratic credentials.

I have proven I can switch to another candidate as I am supporting Hillary almost as zealously as I supported Edwards.

[TAWS]

57. How are you counting the popular vote for caucus states? n/t

[Oilwellian]

62. Oh, c'mon TAWS

Shhhhh...don't look over there, looky here! :rofl:

[ProSense]

61. You're wrong

Popular Vote Total
Obama 10,305,403
Clinton 9,379,822

Popular Vote (w/FL)
Obama 10,881,617
Clinton 10,250,808

Popular Vote (w/FL & MI)*
Obama 10,881,617
Clinton 10,579,117

(*Obama Not on Michigan Ballot; Iowa, Nevada, Washington & Maine Have Not Released Popular Vote Totals)

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