Recent Polling Data Shows Serious Concerns About Senator Obama's "Electability" Over Senator McCain

[Reality Check]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lanny-davis/recent-polling-data-shows_b_89094.html

ARTICLE SAMPLE (click above for full text)

I know that Senator Obama is the front-runner. But I remain concerned about his electability. I find him inspirational, attractive, articulate and very intelligent. He has run an outstanding campaign. Close friends are ardently for him. I like him. But recent polling data confirms for me, despite all the horde of punditry proclaiming him a "phenom" with stronger general electorate appeal than Senator Clinton, that Senator Obama is very vulnerable in the general election and less likely to defeat Senator McCain than Senator Clinton. And so to all Democrats - especially those in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania - I offer these facts and these arguments to take another look before if you believe Senator Obama is the stronger general election candidate.

I still believe Senator Clinton can be the nominee - even if she wins Ohio and Pennsylvania but not Texas. Because she will have carried all the major states a Democrat must win, especially Ohio, and also such border and winnable red states and marginal states, such as Tennessee, Arkansas, New Mexico, Nevada and Arizona. And Senator Obama's victories in the small-turn out red states such as Kansas, Idaho, North Dakota and Utah, are not likely to be replicated in the general election.

If Senator Obama is the nominee I hope I am wrong about the following worry about his electability - but as of now I have it big time. I have this déjà vu sensation.

[geek tragedy]

1. Lieberdem Lanny Davis. Nice source.

I like the part where his concern is that Obama is only a few points better than Clinton in the polls.

[DJ13]

2. .......by Lanny Davis

:eyes:

[grantcart]

3. Lanny Davis lol why don't you just quote Bill Clinton lol

[ellacott]

4. Lanny Davis?

Funny

[The Anti-Bush]

5. Well, it's our job to make sure it doesn't happen then.

Just keep talking to people, making sure they know the truth. I do it every day... And am happy to say I have cleared up numerous false rumors.

[leftofcool]

6. Correct

I have seen some polling data that suggests the same thing. You can add Oklahoma, Kentucky, and Florida to this list.

Left of Cool

[GeorgeGist]

7. OMG

run for your lives, it's déjà vu again.

[earthlover]

8. "...But recent polling data confirms for me..." WHAT POLLING DATA, PRAY TELL?

According to pollingreport.com every poll under the general election has Obama doing better against McCain than Hillary does.

Obama already this week has demonstrated an advantage he has, a big one, against McCain. When McCain tries to go on the attack on Iraq, Obama can put him in his place by attacking McCain's support of Bush and the Iraq War. Since Hillary did not oppose the Iraq War, she would look like a flip flopper if she tried the same tack.

Obama's quickness in response to Hillary Campaigning Swift Boating is another reason we can be confident in Obama. He doesn't vaccillate and he strikes right back. We need a fighter in November who can withstand the inevitable SwiftBoating against our nominee. Don't think Hillary is immune to SwiftBoating! However, her campaign has been so sporatic I really don't have much confidence in just which Hillary will respond to it. Obama has not Swift Boatted her, which, btw, is another reason to support Obama.

[elixir]

9. I love it. Whenever a post goes against the reader's wishes, they question the author.

Since when is the Huffington Post a problem?

[Alexander]

10. And whenever someone endorses Obama, Shillbots throw them under the bus.

[WillParkinson]

12. Well, if that's how you see it.

After all, Mr. Obama has seen fit to throw gays and lesbians under the bus.

Let's just hope the bus is big enough for all of us. Would make it much easier on all concerned.

[juajen]

16. I certainly haven't seen that. Got a link?

It is not wise to do this no matter who you support.

[Barack_America]

15. Ummm.

Like this?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4823506

I don't think supporters of either candidate can necessarily claim the high-road on this one.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

11. If Obama can't beat McCain, then Hillary sure as hell can't.

After all, her supposed strength is her experience, and McCain has WAY more experience in every way than Hillary.

However, polling data for the general election is essentially meaningless until at least September, when the candidates really start going head-to-head.

[Barack_America]

13. His cherry-picked polls don't support his argument.

He concedes that, yes, Obama is beating McCain more than Hillary does in all of the head-to-head polls.

So his entire argument is based on the assumption that Dems not currently supporting Obama will continue to not support Obama, while Obama's Republican supporters will all eventually rally around McCain. This is a bit of a stretch and he provides no numbers to back it up. His argument is weak at best.

[ingac70]

14. Hillary definitely isn't electable.

If the voters like the direction this country is headed. They'll chose McCain over Obama.

Hillary will just cause disgruntled Repubs who would probably stay home to race to the polls to ensure she doesn't get elected. She has no appeal to moderates or potential cross over voters.