***SUPERDELEGATE/DELEGATE TOTAL UPDATE - (Campaign Neutral)***2/29

[grantcart]

Total Delegates Pledged . . . . . Super . . . . Total

Clinton , , , , , 1035 . . . . . 240 . . . . 1275
Obama . . . . . 1187 . . . . . 191 . . . .1378


By the way AP shows it as Obama 191/Clinton 241
needed 2024.5




Superdelegates from American Abroad 22 for 11 seats so each delegate is .5 (not quite super!)



List of superdelegates here http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-l ...

Breakdown of "Automatic Delegates" Govenors/Senators/Congressperson


. . . . . . Govenor . . . . Senator . . . Congressperson. . . . Total

Obama . . . . . .11 . . . . . 15 . . . . . . 69 . . . . . . . .95

Clinton. . . . . .10 . . . . . . 12 . . . . . . 72 . . . . . . . .94



Recent Changes

Friday 2/29
For Obama

DNC Melendez + DNC Cassutt (MN)http://www.mncampaignreport.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1138
DNC Young (TX)http://thepage.time.com/four-superdelegates-endorse-obama/
DNC Pfenning (ND)http://www.kxmc.com/News/214153.asp
Sen Rockefeller (WV)http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/gGgC25

Thursday 2/28

For Obama
DNC Jeffers (LA)http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/politics/15728047.html?index=18&c=y
Rep Barrow (GA)http://www.examiner.com/a-1247794~Georgia_Congressman_J...

For Clinton
DNC Gill-Pratt (LA)http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/politics/15728047.html?index=18&c=y

Wednesday

For Clinton

DNC Mehiel and Tokas (NY)http://www.buffalonews.com/home/story/278973.html

For Obama

Sen Dorgan (ND)http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g-5dmOWQP8Y8LtLPAm46...
Sen Lewis (GA)http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/stories/2008/02/27...
DNC Stevens (ME)http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgraham...

Changed from Clinton to Obama
DNC Thompson(TX)http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/tx/5576891.html

Monday/Tuesday

For Obama
DNC Mallory (OH)http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/gov/2008/02/obama -...
SEN Dodd (CT)http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gpX0l1Q8Tuizuh_axZJM ...
sSEN Strauss and Brown http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgraham ...
DNC Powell (IL)http://www.huffingtonpost.com/elaine-hopkins/il-superde...


Friday
For Obama
DNC Nardi (Ohio)http://www.buckeyestateblog.com/ohio_superdelegate_sonn ...
SEN Feingold (WI)http://www.madison.com/tct/news/273831
DNC Borde (DA)http://www.cnsnews.com/news/viewstory.asp?Page=/Foreign ...
DNC Lynch (PA)http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/valleyindependent/teens ...

For Clinton
DNC Biofore (WV)http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-Superdelegates.ht ...




Source http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-l ...
Total Delegates Pledged . . . . . Super . . . . Total

Clinton , , , , , 1035 . . . . . 240 . . . . 1275
Obama . . . . . 1187 . . . . . 191 . . . . .1378


By the way AP shows it as Obama 191/Clinton 241
needed 2024.5

Superdelegates from American Abroad 22 for 11 seats so each delegate is .5 (not quite super!)


List of superdelegates here http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-l ...


Names can be found in above link with links to the original source of the delegate

From now on I will add the changes in a daily update downthread and reissue thread when it makes sense

All credit to Democratic Convention Watch

[LSparkle]

1. Feingold for Obama! I hadn't heard about that endorsement!

[grantcart]

3. If you click on the statement it is in fact not an explicit formal endorsement

it is however very clear who Sen Feingold will be voting for. That is what makes Demonwatch so effective in being a neurtal evaluator in how they count super delegates.

[grantcart]

2. An interesting note:

If you hit on the links above or on demconwatch (which is the source for everything above) you will find the endorsement statements or in some cases a news link that outlines why they are supporting their candidate. In the statement by Melendez and Cassutt DNC delegates from Minnesota was this rather remarkable statement that was refreshingly honest about their own importance.


http://www.mncampaignreport.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1138
quote
We didn't ask to be superdelegates - we were elected three years ago in an election cycle without a Presidential race - and frankly, we both could do without the honor. There may be a role for superdelegates: Tad Devine wrote in an excellent piece in The New York Times that "the superdelegates were also created to provide unity at the nominating convention. They are a critical mass of uncommitted convention voters who can move in large numbers toward the candidate who receives the most votes in the party's primaries and caucuses. Their votes can provide a margin of comfort and even victory to a nominee who wins a narrow race." But we doubt that the Party needs so many superdelegates and, if the number is cut, state-party leaders should be among the first to go. If a reform is proposed to that effect, we will support it. Meanwhile, our votes belong to the people that we serve, and we will cast those votes according to their wishes
unquote

And the irony is of course is that these are just the kind of people you would want to be super delegates. You have to love these guys.

[grantcart]

4. kick

[FrenchieCat]

5. k&r

[grantcart]

8. tks

[adoraz]

6. I'm loving the chart

[grantcart]

14. yeah every day it gets better

[thevoiceofreason]

7. Now that's a graph I like to see going down!

Kick & reck

[grantcart]

15. its been pretty steady

[hogwyld]

9. Here's a count from MSNBC for reference.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Sen. Jay Rockefeller has thrown his support behind Obama. Rockefeller is the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee.

SUPERDELEGATE COUNT (as of 3:40 pm ET, Feb. 29)
Clinton 254
Obama 208

NOTE: Obama has picked up 38 delegates since Super Tuesday, Feb. 5. Clinton has lost a net of 6.

Super delegate numbers reflect totals gathered by the NBC News Political Unit from the campaigns and public endorsements.

The NBC News Hard Count stands at Obama leading Clinton 1,194-1,037.

GRAND TOTAL
Obama 1,402
Clinton 1,291

[grantcart]

10. interesting thanks

[hogwyld]

12. Recommended

Oh yeah, and a big :kick:

[grantcart]

30. tks

[LibertyorDeath]

11. Thanks for all the great info & the links

Cheers...

Rec!

[grantcart]

13. tks

[grantcart]

16. DNC Wineke (WI) for Obama

http://www.madison.com/tct/news//index.php?ntid=275115

[RiverStone]

17. Thanks for the very informative posts!

Keep em coming --- appreciate it! :hi:

[grantcart]

19. tks

[grantcart]

18. Burkhalter (AL) for Obama

[grantcart]

20. Found this about Texas

[davidpdx]

21. Delegate calculator

For anyone that hasn't seen it, here is a delegate calculator from Forbes. You can plug in amounts and it will tell you roughly what the delegate count would be:

http://www.forbes.com/2008/02/27/obama-clinton-election-oped-cx_jb_0227delegates.html

[grantcart]

22. Thank your for that. Slate also has one and I emailed them the problems I thought

they would encounter. I was rather surprised tht they actually emailed back.

My arguement was
1) Delegates are choesen by Congrssional District and not States so that it can skew the results especially in Texas
2) Texas is also a caucus

His response was that so far the deviation was surprisingly small.

I was just surprised that they bothered to respond.

Here is the email and his link to Slate's methodology.


Craig,
Thanks for the note. We understand that delegates aren't awarded by overall state vote, but the numbers we crunched showed only a 1.6 percent deviation in previous primaries between the overall delegates allocated and the overall vote. You can see more of our methodology at http://www.slate.com/id/2185278#methodology

Chad


On Fri, Feb 29, 2008 at 6:23 PM, <[e-mail]> wrote:

Your calculator is based on the mistaken premise that delegates are distributed by states and they are not. They are appropriated by congressional district. As even Sen. Schumer admits here

http://www.observer.com/2008/schumer-avoiding-self-destructive-end-clinton-vs-obama

Schumer also suggested that the current system of awarding pledged delegates is flawed. "The delegate counts are so close, and you can win a state by quite a lot and you still don't win the delegates by quite a lot," he said. "Maybe that's a flawed system. But that will be for the next election, not this one.

"I think if you win a district 55 to 45," he said. "The delegates shouldn't be three to three. Yes, I think proportional representation makes some sense but they sort of overdid it."


With Obama leading by 100 delegates Sen Clinton will need at least 50 districts that have 6 delegates where she wins by 65% or more - to simply make up where she is today. Today she lost 5 super delegates so she needs 5 more districts. Everytime Obama wins another delegate she needs to win CD.

It also doesn't take into account other factors like:

Texas is 1/3 caucus

CD are awarded delegates based on 2004 votes and that means that in Texas for example districts with large Black votes will have much more impact than those with Hispanic.

It is quite possible that if Obama loses narrowly in Texas he could still win 20 delegates.

Those details are discussed here http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4600962&mesg_id=4600962

Craig Grant

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

23. Clitnon doesn't want TX caucus results released

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4834528&mesg_id=4837589

[grantcart]

24. This could be over very quickly

Texas early voting tallied almost 900,000 votes. Presumably these results will be announced within a few minutes of the primary being over. If Obama has a big lead there it could take the wind out of anything Hillary plans.

[Johnny__Motown]

25. I love these posts, thanks for doing them. But you need a new SD lead graph

you have the numbers at 240-191


Unless my math is as bad as my typing then that lead is only 49. your graph stops at 50.

[grantcart]

27. Its a shame you can't go back and update for more recent info

and there really isn't enough of a change to warrant a new post today


like everything else I am basically borrowing from Demconwatch

Here is the Super Delegate Breakdown

Super Delegate . . Clinton . . . Obama

Govenors . . . . . . .10 . . . . .11

Senators . . . . . . 12 . . . . .15

Congress. . . . . . .72 . . . . .69

DNC . . . . . . . . .146. . . . . 98


Total . . . . . . . . .240 . . . . 193

Clinton advantage +47


Historical Tracking of Clinton Super Delegate Lead

1/13 +96

1/20 +94

1/27 +96

2/3 +93

2/10 +97

2/17 +77

2/24 +64

2/28 +54

3/1 +47

[Johnny__Motown]

28. Thanks, but my point was your chart/graph bottoms out at 50 and we are below that already

[grantcart]

29. i know but I am cutting and pasting from DemconWatch and they

haven't updated the graph yet.

[Johnny__Motown]

31. K thanks

This is just a kick, cleverly disguised as a response,

[grantcart]

32. well i am grateful for that and this lol

[grantcart]

33. Maybe Oreo who visits in here saw your complaint

they also have a new page here

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/ultimate-delegate-summary.html

[Johnny__Motown]

39. wow nice, I feel special now. Didn't mean to complain though, just an observation

[Johnny__Motown]

40. There are rumors that Obama is sitting on 50 SD to announce all at once after 3/4, Oreo is gonna

need a bigger graph if this is true

[conservdem]

26. kick

[grantcart]

34. Delegates Needed for Nomination

Obama 644

Clinton 749

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/ultimate-delegate-summary.html

[grantcart]

35. no changes 3/2

[grantcart]

36. no changes 3/3

[grantcart]

37. DNC Carol Fowler (SC) for Obama

[grantcart]

38. add DNC Mary Long (GA) for Obama