If you're sure Obama cannot win the general,

[damonm]

explain THIS:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

I am prepared to laugh at you.

[Bucky]

1. And I am prepared to take your course on internet etiquette

(Psssst, Obama's the candidate of hope, not the candidate of small minded snarkery)

[damonm]

10. As well you should be...

Since I've seen no one able to refute this seriously.

[Bucky]

13. I'm not trying to dispute your facts. I'm disputing your boorish behavior

I'm drawing a contrast between a great and honorable candidate and you, one of his obnoxious supporters.

[damonm]

17. Hmmm...you haven't seen many of my other post around here, have you?

My snark is directed solely at those who have claimed, repeatedly, and without evidence other than ad hominem attacks on the candidate, that Obama cannot win the general. Most of those have exhibited behavior that would make me look like the pinnacle of civility.

And, BTW, let the records show it was YOU who began the name-calling. I'll let others judge what is and is not "boorish behavior"

I said I was prepared to laugh at those who claim Obama cannot win the general in spite of clear evidence to the contrary, not Hillary supporters, as most of them are too rational to make such claims; any different reading is YOUR creation, not mine.

[KAZ]

18. I know, but we're trying to be nice. You know, T-4 days and all.

[damonm]

20. Fair enough - my tone COULD have been better,

but, by God, some of those people were REALLY cheesing me off...

[KAZ]

27. Yeah, me too. It's always this way on DU around the primaries.

(Most) everyone makes up afterward. Keep up the good work Damonm!

[Skip Intro]

2. Welcome to DU. Your link does not back up your assertion.

:rofl:

[damonm]

9. Reread - fixed link.

[stellanoir]

3. yes he can

no frigging contest

[Thepricebreaker]

4. Those are Obama vs Clinton Polls.. newest polls McCain is beating both Clinton and Obama...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[Bucky]

7. Reality check

In five recent polls Obama is beating McCain in three and losing in two.

Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll: McCain wins by 2
Associated Press-Ipsos poll: Obama wins by 10
USA Today/Gallup Poll: McCain wins by 1
CBS News/New York Times Poll: Obama wins by 12
Pew Research Center survey: Obama wins by 7

In every single poll, including you one point victory for McCain poll from Rasmussen, Obama does better against McCain than Clinton. Every single one.

[Thepricebreaker]

34. Rasmussen is always the most accurate. they got both elections by less the 1/2 of 1% spot on...

[damonm]

14. You mean newest POLL, singular...

as you only quote Rasmussen. And, FYI, McCain's lead in that Rasmussen has never been greater than 3%, and has fallen over the past 2 days.

RCP's average (of 8 polls) shows Obama leading by 4.3%.

Of those 8, 5 show Obama ahead, and he's closing in the Rasmussen.

You have been refuted.

[Bicoastal]

5. Wow...44% of the GOP is supporting the guys who can't POSSIBLY win?

Sucks to be McCain.

[Liquorice]

6. Well Dukakis was 17 points ahead

coming out of the democratic convention in 1988. And we all know how that turned out.

[ronnykmarshall]

8. Snap!

[Forkboy]

12. hey you!

Where ya been? I missed you! :)

[ronnykmarshall]

22. Kidnapped by the Key-Locks!

But I got away.

[Forkboy]

23. LOL

They weren't very bright, were they? :)

[ronnykmarshall]

26. Dingy as the day is long.

And those monotone voices: You can not stop us. Godzilla is under ... our power!

Pluuuuuuuze Miss Thangs!

[Forkboy]

29. So get this.

You were surprised they used the word bitch in Invasion Of The Astro Monster, but the DVD for Terror Of MechaGodzilla has this....



I don't know about you, but I see breasts on that 3rd pic down on the right.

My innocence is lost. :cry:

[damonm]

11. two words...

Willie Horton.

Dukakis IGNORED that smear while it gained more and more traction. Demonstrate how Obama has similarly ignored attacks.

Also, Dukakis was running against an incumbent VP of a still VERY popular Republican President. Name the similar handicap faced by Obama.

Otherwise, you're apples v. asparagus.

[Liquorice]

16. Obama has not reached the GE yet.

Nobody can truly predict the level of vitriol the attacks by the repubs will reach should Obama get the nomination. The Dukakis fiasco does show one thing for certain however: National polls months away from the GE are meaningless.

[damonm]

19. Not quite meaningless, but I take your point...

And thank you for making a serious, non-ad hominem effort at it.

Dukakis had a clean shot at the WH, but like Gore and Kerry, made the critical error of ignoring smears, and this cost him. Bill Clinton did NOT ignore attacks & allow them to fester in the public mind, and he thus won against an incumbent POTUS.

My counter to the "Kerry/Dukakis was ahead at this point" meme is that (a)Obama has shown himself to be swift and facile at responding to negative campaigning (as neither Kerry nor Dukakis were), which is necessary to a winning GE campaign, (b)he has shown organizing skills superior to either Clinton or McCain - witness McCain's near-death financial experience, and Clinton's severe stumbles after Super Tuesday - which puts him in good position to continue his surge, and (c) Obama's unprecedented (since RFK, at least)ability to inspire and engage those previously disengaged. He has the potential to be a Progressive version of Reagan (love or hate Reagan, there's no question how much of a boost he gave the GOP).

[Liquorice]

25. Should Obama get the nomination

I hope he will be able to fight off the RW attack machine better than Dukakis or Kerry, but many republicans and some independents will be swayed by these attacks. The RW is very good at what it does--I guess because they have done it for so long. If Obama is counting on indies and moderate reps to win, there could be trouble. Obama's negatives will go up among these groups due to these attacks. That doesn't mean he will lose, but it will be a hard fight.

I prefer Hillary for many, many reasons--not least among them is that the Clintons, as you mentioned, know how to fight the machine.

[damonm]

28. Trends to date...

indicate he can. He's successfully pushed back against McCain, and just about everything the Clinton Camp has thrown, and his popularity keeps growing.

Moreover, Obama's a different breed of cat. With the kind of message he's using (no more "politics as usual"), negative attacks of almost ANY stripe can be spun to show that the opposition is "more of the same". I think this is why the RW fears him. I know - I lurk over @ Hannity's forum sometimes, and they're peeing their pants over there about Obama, and salivating at the thought of running against Clinton.

[rufus dog]

35. I remember that well

there were millions giving him money, the country was abuzz with Dukakis fever! Oh wait.

[The_Casual_Observer]

15. It's a long way till November. You'd have to be Miss Cleo to make

a solid prediction at this point.

[damonm]

21. True. Just pointing that out to those

who have claimed he can't possibly win. Current data (all we have to go on, really) contradicts them, so I was challenging that.

[NMMatt]

24. Good point

But of course people with sour grapes tend to be the most unreasonable around. They'll get over it soon enough.

[Toallwhoshallsee]

30. Good Topic

Great read all in all. Either democrat is much more acceptable than McCain.....I shudder to think of that man with his temper tantrums and the end all nuclear button within his touch. At least with Duba’ you only have to worry about him pulling the string on his speak and spell, or reading a children’s book upside down.

[Nexus7]

31. Obstacles for Obama in the general

Polls this far out don't mean much, and furthermore the pollsters are complete gas bags. They tweak their models to suit whichever way their weather-vane is blowing. And McCain's got a lot more imploding to do.

However, there are reasons why Obama's performance in the primaries isn't indicative of his potential in the general.

1. He won many delegates and built his lead in southern states, and states which don't normally go dem in the general. In the general, the southern strategy will be deployed by the repubs. Count on it. Count on much worse, in fact.

2. The "movement" thing may not last. It may, but a movement of giddy adults lasting well over a year is unlikely. The question is how much will bleed off.

3. In many states which Obama won, McCain was already leading by so much on that race, that it wasn't of much interest. So those repubs voted in the dem primary; and lots of repubs get up in the morning and remember how BillC completely raped them when he was President; so they always vote anti-Clinton.

4. The caucus nonsense, with its crowd, peer, and other pressures, doesn't exist in the general.

In other words, any dem better have top support in the biggies - CA, NY, NJ, IL, OH, and other industrial states. So far, Obama won over Hillary in 1 of those.

[damonm]

32. Not much.

The states you mention, (CA, NY, NJ, IL, OH, and other industrial states) are not good indicators. CA, NY, and NJ will go blue for almost any Democrat. Ohio's VERY much in play, as McCain is pro-NAFTA. I suggest you take a look at an Electoral map (someone here posted it), and it shows a pretty commanding lead for Obama at this point.

Moreover, I look for the south to be more competitive than usual, as Obama's mobilized the African-American bloc like nobody's business. VA is VERY much in play, and NC is nowhere near as red as it was. Even GA is teetering.

Throw in the fact that Obama's demonstrated ability to engage and energize new and formerly disengaged voters is bringing record turnouts everywhere, and this spells bad news for the GOP - high turnout is almost always bad for them.

[Nexus7]

33. All my points hold

CA will not go blue for any democrat. CA went to Reagan. And CA went to Schwarzenegger. CA went overwhelmingly for Clinton; to annoy those voters is to introduce a huge risk.

As for NAFTA, all three candidates are for NAFTA. The most any one will do is renegotiate it. NAFTA is here to stay; let's not dream of a closed and state-controlled economy.

Any statement about the south being competitive based upon polls such a long way out; and based upon turnouts in a weird primary situation with already a clear repub front-runner, is complete speculation. In the past, dems could not count on the south in the general. To assume otherwise is to introduce more risk.

Energizing voters is great. This summer, as people lose homes, face mounting debt and gas prices, people will be working more hours than ever, and a lot of hope, enthusiasm, whatever, is there now, may evaporate fast. To count on that, is again, more risk.

At this time, with a million dead in Iraq, credit markets' crisis due to lack of regulation, with our image in the world being what it is; I am in no mood for risk.