Clinton leads Ohio 46-38, within the margin of error in Texas (48-45 for Obama)

[jackson_dem]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/02/29/fox_news_poll_obama_leads_in_texas_clinton_ahead_in_ohio.html

Gomama! :bounce:

[JackORoses]

1. Fox News, the Last Hope of Hillarism!

ahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!

[jackson_dem]

3. Is there any evidence Opinion Dynamics is a fraud?

Hillary has led in every Ohio poll and Obama has stalled in Ohio. In Texas it is usually within the margin of error with Obama, again, stalled. The predictions that Obama would gain 20 points a week have proven to be well off the mark.

[jackson_dem]

5. Here is the evidence. Opinion Dynamics (Fox's pollster) is among the most accurate

[cali]

7. no one has predicted that Obama would gain 20 pts a week

simply that he would make up his deficits of a month ago. And it looks like that's precisely what he's done. Those OH numbers could be right, or wrong, but the poll is an outlier. None of the other recent OH polls show the gap as being that big. In any case, he has a much better ground game in TX. If she wins OH by ten points and loses TX by 5 she's still in big trouble, and she still will come out of Tuesday even more behind in delegates. Vermont has a wierd delegate allocation system, and Obama will take almost all of the delegates here if he wins as projected. She won't win RI by more than 10. Do the math. She'll still be behind.

Does she stay in if she loses TX and VT but wins OH and RI? I think the pressure on her to drop out becomes intense at that point and that the SDs will make their will known by endorsing Obama in greater and greater numbers. The Clinton campaign has moved the goalposts as far as they can go.

[jackson_dem]

9. Of course no one did. I didn't mean that literally

he made up his deficit on the back of momentum generating by Super Tuesday, 2/9, 2/12, and 2/19 (Wisconsin). As I said when it was chic to predict his gains would continue unabated, because they were attributed to him having super campaigning skills, he would not have anything to give him a momentum boost after Wisconsin unless he had a monster debate or something freakish happened. If Wisconsin were on 2/26 Obama may very well have used that to surge to victories in both states but the calendar which favored him earlier (NH being 5 days after Iowa and SC, not Nevada, being about a week before Super Tuesday) hurt him this time.

I think she should stay if that happens, unless she loses Texas by 20 or more and that is unlikely. The pressure will be on but it makes no sense to quit. There is no way to know if the opponent will throw a late interception if you walk off the field. She should at least fight onto Pennsylvania, a state similar to Ohio in many ways. There are 6 weeks until then and the msm is finally giving Obama some negative press every now and then and the rethug machine is jabbing happen as well on occasion. Obama is where he is today as a pristine candidate with a pristine, carefully scripted image and narrative. If he was up 50-46 in the popular vote under these ideal conditions what will his strength be in six weeks if he gets some blood on his nose (don't forget that the Rezko trial begins on Monday. It doesn't matter if nothing new comes out from the trial. Just having it in the news and getting more folks exposed to it will hurt Obama's clean/reform image)? Who knows, maybe after that Hillary can produce a 60-40 or 65-35 win in PA and if that happened all bets would be off for the May primaries, which include North Carolina. This is unlikely, of course. Her best bet is to win Ohio and Texas along with Rhode Island and hopefully keep it close in Vermont (did you see the poll that has her down 14 in VT? If she can cut that down to single digits and win the other three it will be a great night for her). Still, if this does not happen the only way to know if the PA/May scenario I laid out will happen is if she is on the field to leap up and get the ball if Obama throws an errant pass. How bad would it be if she dropped out and then Obama got weak by April 22...

[cali]

16. First of all, there is no way that she'll only lose by single digits here

I've lived here for a long time- almost my entire adult life. I've been involved in VT politics for 20 years. And virtually everyone in state is predicting a very big win for him. I don't think you get Vermont. I live in the Kingdom, the most conservative part of the state, and even here there is virtually no support for Hillary.

If she loses TX and wins OH and RI by less than 10, as seems likely, I can see her staying in, but it's essentially pointless. PA is now close. Obama will win handily in WY and MS. More SDs will endorse him, and we know where Dean stands- he wants to wrap it up.

If she wins OH, TX and RI, even if she only wins them narrowly, I can see her staying in. Absolutely. But I don't think Rezco is going to damage Obama. And I don't see anything else on the horizon that could take him out.

If she wins three out of four on Tuesday, I think that shows she still has a fairly strong position on which to move forward.

[jackson_dem]

19. Yeah, I went to pollster.com and the 2 latest have her down 24-26 there

She is up 15 and 12 in the last two Rhode Island polls (ARG is the 12...). She could conceivably win there by even 20 if things break her way over the next few days. I am at least looking for a solid double digit win there for her.

PA is now close. The keyword is now. It closed because of Obama's momentum. If momentum swings back to Hillary his gains are likely to be reversed. More than momentum, there will be six weeks of campaigning there. That will ultimately decide PA. If she can win Ohio and win Rhode Island comfortably I see no incentive for her to get out and not continue at least to PA. If she loses both Ohio and Texas then she should quit.

Rezko should at least chink his armor a bit since many folks have not heard of it yet. The thing is Obama--the Obama most people know, not the political junkie Obama, is very pristine. There is that radical Muslim smear BS but even that is not a serious thing among most folks. For the vast majority they know nothing bad about Obama. He has never been truly scrutinized by the msm and the rethugs are only now beginning to attack him after doing it to Hill aggressively for a year, not to mention the 15 years prior! This is what scares me about Obama. If he as a pristine candidate whose public image is what Axlerod has crafted he only beats McCain by 4-5 how weak will he be when the rethug machine is through with him? People forget what happened to Kerry 04' (went from +8 to -3 from now to November), Bush 00' (went from +11 to -a few tenths from now to Nov), and even Dukakis 88' (+17 in August, -7 in November) after all three were attacked by the opposing party.

[cali]

22. Obama has a true political killer instinct

why people don't get that now, is beyond me. And he's clearly adept at the organization and strategy piece of it. The MSM has scrutinized Obama on Rezco. There have been hundreds of prominent stories on it. It's been talked about widely by the talking heads.

I don't think "pristine" is nearly as big a part of Obama's draw as you think it is. And I think comparing him to Dukakis and Kerry is kind of pointless. He's way better a campaigner and a more effective fighter. He's pretty obviously learned from the past mistakes of other dem candidates.

Clinton runs the risk of becoming a punch line if she loses TX and VT and wins by under 10 in RI and OH.

And one thing, you seem to omit in your analysis is ground game and TV advertising. They're more important than momentum. Obama has it over Clinton in both departments.

[jackson_dem]

23. Probably--I certainly hope so if he is the nominee!

Still I believe he will inevitably dip in the polls as his image (even if you don't believe it is pristine you have to concede it is very favorable, especially compared to what Hillary, Edwards had, and even all the major rethugs except for McCain) gets bloodied. The question for me is whether he can get off the mat successfully, unlike Dukakis and unlike Kerry. If he is the nominee I hope he does!

it depends on how the media runs with it. Hill was declared dead not too long ago. If she can win anywhere, including a big state, it could easily be spun as the "comeback kid" part III (NH 08' was II).

I believe Hill is even with Obama in advertising right now in OH and TX, although this was not the case earlier in the year but she has gotten a lot of cash this month and has enough to compete now. Ground game is always a guessing game so I have never put too much stock into perceptions about ground strength. Look at Iowa. Some observers claimed Edwards had the best ground game, which was hard to believe given his financial disadvantage and the much larger staffs Obama and Clinton had in the state. On election day he underperformed his poll numbers in Iowa. He was saved by the second round of voting but he lost the first round by something like 32-31-23 after running a very close second in almost every Iowa poll right before IA. Then look at Romney not making anything up over Huckabee's poll numbers despite having what was viewed by all as the best ground game on the rethug side thanks to his dough. It should have put him over the top in Florida as well given how close the polls were there but he did about as well on election day as he was doing in the polls.

As far as momentum goes I believe, at least in OH and TX, Obama's has stalled.

[JTFrog]

15. Let's see what Mr. Rupert says about shaping public opinions and fraud, shall we?

You don't really think FOX and News Corp. actually try to deceive and shape public opinion or distort information now do you?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JF9HpuZm6-g

Or do they?

*edit link

[jackson_dem]

18. See post 5. Fox doesn't do the polling anyway

[TAWS]

2. 16% undecided? That's kind of high n/t

[jackson_dem]

4. And good news for Hillary if accurate. It is likely because folks are having buyer's remorse

If folks want a choice, not a coronation, they need to keep Hillary alive. Then we can have six weeks worth of examination of Obama. It would be a shame if Obama is the nominee and then we learn things about him that will cause us to regret the choice of him over the coming weeks when the msm will do some journalism on him and the rethugs will launch some attacks on him. Why not vet him? Too bad we didn't vet Kerry. We blindly coronated him after one state and look at where that took us...

[Sensitivity]

6. Congratulations to Clinton Supporters! Good job if you can hold Ohio

[jackson_dem]

8. Ohio is looking great for Hill. Texas is a nail biter. However, a big caveat:

the polls have been off before. Obama was supposed to win by double digits in New Hampshire and look at what happened. In Wisconsin most polls had the gap at only 4-5 points but Obama won by 17. These are just the two biggest examples of the polls being off. Anything can happen but thus far, given the available data, I think every Hillary supporter has to be happy where she stands now. It was widely expected that Obama would swamp her in both states and he had momentum in both. It looks like as soon as folks got to see Hillary campaign she was able to stop the bleeding and some evidence even suggests she is reversing the tide slightly. One factor that is different in both states is that Hillary is now matching Obama's ad blitzes. In previous states she was massively outspent on advertising in lead-up to the vote in places like Iowa (Obama actually outspent second place Edwards 6:1 in his neighboring state) and Wisconsin.

[Egnever]

14. It was widely expected that Obama would swamp her in both states ?

By who?

[jackson_dem]

20. By many here and for a while it looked liked it would happen

Look at how fast he was closing the gap in both states until about a week ago. Had that continued, as expected by at least Obamites and some in the msm who constantly pointed out how Obama allegedly gains a zillion points when he begins to campaign (ignoring the momentum boosts he kept getting since SC before the next round of voting), he would be ahead solidly right now in both states.

[GoreVidalIsGod]

10. Awesome news! Hillary needs to win both states plus PA by 65% to break even!

[jackson_dem]

11. Yes, if the primaries ended in April

There are a few left in May and I think 2-3 in June. May includes the 10th largest state. It is a myth that PA is the last big state. North Carolina is. There are also states like Kentucky and Indiana up in May.

[GoreVidalIsGod]

12. Awesome news for Obama yet again!

The latest Survey USA poll from North Carolina had him with 60% of the vote. The only states with larger black populations are South Carolina and Louisinia.

Latest Indiana poll posted here a couple days ago had him with a 15% lead over Clinton. So much for that Bayh endorsement.

He's also likely to win Montana, South Dakota (where he is supported by Tim Johnson and the lone rep), Oregon -- full of Latte liberals, and Wyoming/Mississippi this week.

[jackson_dem]

13. Why does this thread even exist in the first place?

It exists because momentum can stall or even shift. If momentum was like bullet that doesn't stop until it reaches its destination you would be right and Obama would be up by 20+ in both Texas and Ohio right now. If Hillary can win both that will radically change the momentum. If she follows that up with a win in Pennsylvania, a state similar to Ohio in many ways, her momentum will further snowball. Look at how Obama's snowballed from SC to Super Tuesday to 2/9, 2/12, and from Wisconsin until about a week ago.

Do you have a link for that North Carolina poll? The only SUSA poll listed at pollster.com has it 50-40 Obama. The last two have him up by 14. NC polling shows momentum matters. Before Super Tuesday Obama and Clinton were in dead heats with each other in NC almost continuously since Obama's campaign began a year ago. Briefly Clinton pulled ahead of him but then Obama came back and ran even with her consistently after Iowa. The moral of the story is with momentum things can swing back to where they once were and Clinton could pull ahead again, especially if Edwards, who was strong and often leading in NC, endorses her. In much of the South there has been racial voting.

You're wrong about North Carolina's demographics. Its demographics as far as the black/white ratio are closer to Tennessee than South Carolina, Georgia, Louisana, and Alabama. Clinton won Tennessee with overwhelming white support.

I haven't seen anything about Indiana but polls this far out mean little. Let's see who has the momentum after March 4 and PA and then look at polling for the May primaries.

Wyoming and Mississippi can be predicted since they are next week. Still even they will be influenced by March 4 just like the Beltway states were influenced by Super Tuesday and Wisconsin by the Beltway trimary the previous week. Besides, they will have little impact as far as momentum goes.

[adoraz]

17. once again picking her best poll of the day

[Tarheel_Dem]

21. i know...cherry pick until you come up with one you like...

she'll probably win OH, and she'll tout that as some sort of moral victory, but the numbers still don't add up.

[rodeodance]

24. Gomama!

[Demagitator]

25. kick

:kick: