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Cleveland Plain Dealer Poll: Clinton leads Obama in Ohio - barely: 47% to 43%

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RamboLiberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 07:12 PM
Original message
Cleveland Plain Dealer Poll: Clinton leads Obama in Ohio - barely: 47% to 43%
Edited on Sat Mar-01-08 07:16 PM by RamboLiberal
Ohio Democratic voters are nearly split over their choice for president, according to new Plain Dealer poll that shows Hillary Clinton clinging to a 4 percentage point lead over Barack Obama in Ohio, 47 percent to 43 percent.

-----

Clinton's lead among Democratic voters is from women, who favor her over Obama, 53 percentage to 38 percent. Men favor Obama by nearly the same margin.

Obama, who is the first black presidential front-runner in history, is crushing Clinton among black voters, 83 percent to 8 percent, according the survey.

Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., conducted the poll February 27-29. It is based on phone interviews with 625 registered Democratic voters who said they plan to vote in the March 4 primary. The poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage points, meaning that either candidate's support could be 4 percentage points higher or lower.

http://blog.cleveland.com/openers/2008/03/clinton_leads_obama_in_ohio_ba.html

Zogby has them dead even - if you check the link Clinton had some better news in Texas:

In Ohio, the two Democrats have drawn dead-even to the tenth of a percent (44.8% each), as Clinton continued to show strength in northern Ohio outside Cleveland, but trailed Obama badly in northeast Ohio and in burgeoning central Ohio, where the capital city of Columbus is home to many state government workers. Clinton leads in the more sparsely-populated, less affluent southern Ohio region. She also retains a small lead among Catholics, an important voting bloc in this Rust Belt state.

Pollster John Zogby: "Hillary Clinton may be making a connection with Democratic voters in Texas, especially among those in key demographic groups that have supported her all year. Among those age 65 and older, she has made strong gains in the last 24 hours of polling. She also retains a big lead among Hispanic voters in Texas, and has made small gains among white voters.

"However, it is important to note that Barack Obama continues to hold big leads among voters in Dallas and in Houston, where there is a heavy concentration of congressional districts and, therefore, delegates to the Democratic National Convention. By most accounts, Clinton needs to win big in both Texas and Ohio to make significant inroads in Obama's delegate lead, and our polling shows that is going to be difficult for her to accomplish.

"In Ohio, Obama continued his march to catch Clinton in the race there, erasing her two-point lead in yesterday's tracking poll. The two are now tied - down to the tenth of a percent. As is the case in Texas, Obama leads in the big Democratic cities – Ohio’s Cleveland and Columbus, now the biggest city in Ohio where thousands of unionized state government employees live. Clinton's strength remains in the more rural areas, and among Catholics, an important demographic group in Ohio.

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1458


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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 07:14 PM
Response to Original message
1. Good news
Edited on Sat Mar-01-08 07:15 PM by NJSecularist
Hillary isn't gaining support in Ohio, she is losing support in Ohio. This race will be decided on the ground in the next few days by which campaign has a better GOTV operation. I really expect this race to go down to the wire and for whomever wins to win by only 1-2%. Barack can still win this state.
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Upton Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 07:19 PM
Response to Reply #1
4.  Close win for Clinton does her no good
she needs to win big, doesn't look like she's going to do it. Without big wins in Texas and Ohio how can she possibly hope to make up the ground in pledged delegates?
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RUMMYisFROSTED Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 07:14 PM
Response to Original message
2. He must get 80% of the vote or he's out.
:I
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gabeana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 07:18 PM
Response to Original message
3. Was there a prior poll
to see where the trend is going
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 07:21 PM
Response to Original message
5. Note the undecideds - about 10%
Edited on Sat Mar-01-08 07:21 PM by NJSecularist
They could tilt the election towards Obama if they break his way.

BTW, this is a Mason Dixon poll.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 07:22 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. Awful track record.
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 07:24 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Yes, they certainly don't have the best track record
Edited on Sat Mar-01-08 07:25 PM by NJSecularist
... as evidenced by the below chart. But it's consistent from what I've seen, that Hillary's lead is within the margin of error.

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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 07:26 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. I think they are right though too.
I think everything will go right down the wire. I have no clue who will win in any state besides VT.
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gabeana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 07:28 PM
Response to Original message
9. prior polls for the last month
from Real Clear Politics end of Jan to last week
The Ohio Poll 02/21 - 02/24 529 LV 47 39 Clinton +8.0
Quinnipiac 02/18 - 02/23 741 LV 51 40 Clinton +11.0
Rasmussen 02/21 - 02/21 902 LV 48 40 Clinton +8.0
ABC/Wash Post 02/16 - 02/20 611 LV 50 43 Clinton +7.0
SurveyUSA 02/17 - 02/18 733 LV 52 43 Clinton +9.0
Rasmussen 02/13 - 02/13 754 LV 51 37 Clinton +14.0
Quinnipiac 02/06 - 02/12 564 LV 55 34 Clinton +21.0
SurveyUSA 02/10 - 02/11 720 LV 56 39 Clinton +17.0
Columbus Dispatch 01/23 - 01/31 2156 LV 42 19 Clinton +23

different polls but Obama caught up and in a position to win, look at the trends

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ZinZen Donating Member (599 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 07:47 PM
Response to Original message
10. With a MOE of 4 that is a tie.
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Scurrilous Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 07:54 PM
Response to Original message
11. Kick
:kick:
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