Hillary surges in 4th consecutive Texas poll, ARG is now on the bandwagon with zogby, IA, bello

[Herman Munster]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

[MoonRiver]

1. Cool. Obamination seems to be tanking!

:D

[Sensitivity]

89. SLIME WORKS. Ask John Kerry. Proven to push doubts and reduce popularity by a point or 2

[rodeodance]

107. Twas Obama whining all week. Have fun.

[Tellurian]

2. And the Truth Shall Set Us FREE!

I hope Voters in Texas and Ohio are reading here. Obama's House of Cards is crumbling fast!

[MoonRiver]

5. Yep. And Rezko cometh Monday.

[Johnny__Motown]

3. Even if it were true it is to little to late, She can never win enough delegates to catch up

[JorgeTheGood]

7. she doesn't have to ...

all she needs to do is stick it out as long as possible and BO will self-destruct.

REZKO -- count on it.

[Tellurian]

12. Yup, and the delegates aren't going to line up behind a corrupt politician

would be "bad" for the Democratic Party..

[kwenu]

31. So Hillary is out for sure.

[Zhade]

61. Well, delegates won't line behind a CHEATER, right?

So yeah, she's toast. I can't wait to rub that in the face of certain assholes here.

[Blondiegrrl]

Then she can shed some tears and whine about how hard it is

to be a woman running for president.

[rodeodance]

108. BORING.

[NJSecularist]

4. It's ARG.

[AtomicKitten]

6. Losing her once 30-point lead isn't surging, it's tanking. (nt)

[Window]

11. Only in Hillaryland. LOL!

[Yael]

13. Shhhhhhh

If she only loses by 10% she really won. Don't you see? :D

[Exilednight]

34. Expectations are so low for Hillary that the high bar is easily mistaken for a limbo stick

[kwenu]

37. LOL!!! That's funny.

[rodeodance]

56. you people are a broken record. that is BORING

[Zhade]

64. Pithy and timely. Well said!

NT!

[Hepburn]

119. Come on, Yael....

...remember: If nothing else works, then Texas does not matter.

:hi:

[Teaser]

8. I'd take ARG off the table

ARG has disgraced itself this season.

[Yael]

14. ARG counts!

The others, not so much.

[kwenu]

17. There's no surge for Hillary in Texas....

but her folks are giving off a distinct air of desperation.

[Omega3]

94. there was a surge in Iraq and it worked, McCain will use this against the passifist BHO to his advan

[Demagitator]

9. Kick

:kick:

[Gloria]

10. Fingers crossed....am not a HIllary supporter...but I know that Obama

is all about Obama...his ambition and arrogance combined with his lack of experience and hard work, his phony rhetoric, his repeated screwing of progressive causes as he trumpets his lovefest with "bipartisanship" ....god, he reminds me more and more of BUSH!

[Tellurian]

16. yeah, we Want Change..

but that Change doesn't include Obama. One of the most corrupt politicians to come down the pike since Bush.

[GarbagemanLB]

19. I heard Murdoch supports Hillary..wonder why?

[Tellurian]

22. You heard wrong. He's supporting Obama..

Invest in a "Hearing Aide"!

[Exilednight]

36. Murdoch held a fundraiser for Hillary, not Obama!! Before you ask, the link is below.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12762092/

[Tellurian]

65. Murdock held a gratuitous fundraiser..on May 16th 2006..

His newspaper endorsed Obama:

Click the pic for story..

[Zhade]

66. Oh, you and your FACTS.

Hillary "Cheater" Clinton's supporters don't like those.

[Lucinda]

68. Who owns the NY Post? And who did they endorse?

I'll give you a clue....it wasn't Hillary. :)

[Exilednight]

71. Giving an endorsement to Obama in her home state isn't exactly the same thing as giving Hillary $$$$

I'm pretty sure the NYP knew what they were doing.

If you're Rupert and want to help Hillary, and you know that liberals hate you, what could you do to help Hillary?

That's right - endorse Obama.

[Lucinda]

75. Doubtful. The headlines were "Another paper, and this one in NY, endorses Obama!!"

Not very helpful to Hillary in her backyard, and very bad nationally when Obama got national press for getting a big NY endorsement.

[Exilednight]

81. I live in NY and only neocons consider it must read. most of us consider it on par with the enquirer

[Lucinda]

85. Then how would an Obama endorsement benefit Hillary ?

[Exilednight]

95. The national attention.

[Lucinda]

97. Which, as I mentioned, was along the line of "Obama gets NY paper endorsement."

Which wasn't good for Hillary.

[Exilednight]

101. Nationally it is good for Hillary. Rupert supporting a Democrat getting national exposure? How ...

is that good? Here in NY we dismiss it. Politics as usual, but to outside NY it's a big deal. I was flooded with e-mails about this asking why Obama. The fact is, Bill and Rupert are pretty close buddies.

Money speaks louder than words.

Just follow where Rupert is putting his money. If he really supported Obama, he would have written him a check.

[Lucinda]

111. Because Murdoch's name doesn't mean much to most of the country. But a NY paper

endorsement of Obama, in Hillary's back yard, does register.

[Exilednight]

112. Rupert registers with anyone who has cable. NY doesn't pay much attention to Rupert. He's an ...

after-thought around here. We have Rudy, Bloomberg, Schumer and a host of others to occupy our time. To be honest, the Clinton name doesn't even register that much around here. NYC is not like the rest of the country. We live in our own little world. Most of the newstands around here don't even carry the NYP.

To be honest, I've seen the Post held up on MSNBC more than I have seen it any where else. Once you start getting out of the city, West Chester, Putnam, and Orange counties, you start seeing the NYP, but no where east of those counties.

[Yael]

47. Link?

Last I heard, it was all about Hillary

[kwenu]

30. And when will Hillary be turning over her financials?????

Since she's the "honest" politician why don't we have her financials yet??? Everyone I know who has a CPA could get their records produced in a hot minute. Are you telling me that with all her money (she loaned her own campaign 5 million) she doesn't have a CPA?

[rodeodance]

58. hey you are wondering. Stay focused on the OP-or go stard your own thread please

[MonkeyFunk]

86. Her "financials" have been made public

she has to file a financial disclosure form annually in her role as Senator. What you haven't seen yet are her tax returns. You'll see them when she gets the nomination, which is how it's always been done.

[kwenu]

87. That's not what she lied about ---OOPS!--- I mean said in the

OHIO debate.

[MonkeyFunk]

102. What are you talking about?

[greguganus]

18. is that you Ms. Steinhem? n/t

[rodeodance]

106. ~YES SHE WILL~~`

[kwenu]

26. And you know this

based on what?

[Gloria]

29. Extensive reading and years of watching this sort of stuff....

He also has the "neediness" emotionally of Bill Clinton. To be entirely accurate, he is Bill Clinton and George Bush rolled into one....

[rodeodance]

41. :-)

[sendero]

57. Funny..

.... I think those EXACT same things about HRC. In fact, on the votes that matter to me, IWR, PATRIOT, Kyl-Lieberman, and others, HRC voted with the Repukes.

Sorry, that dog won't hunt.

[adoraz]

15. not good news for us (obama supporters). I don't know whats causing this mini surge for her

[Tellurian]

20. Maybe the Truth is surfacing and pointing out Obama's Lies is working..

in our favor!

[adoraz]

25. well he hasn't been campaigning much the last few days in Texas

so thats probably a more likely reason. I think he needs to make a return Monday.

[kwenu]

33. Not true. He had a town meeting just yesterday here in Austin.

[adoraz]

45. yeah but I think that was it, wasn't it? not even a big rally or anything

[kwenu]

90. WHAT?!!!!! THAT MAKES NO SENSE!!!!

[Tellurian]

48. I think he's run out of road..

and the Lies Hillary spoke about Obama have had enough time to register on the polling scale!

[NJSecularist]

21. There has been no "surge" from Hillary

It's random flunctuation. The two most reliable pollsters, Survey USA and Rasmussen, show that Obama has be gaining support, not losing it.

Then we have second-rate pollsters like ARG and Insider Advantage who Hillary supporters try to use as a way to paint as a surge when it is simply not true. You can't "surge" after throwing away a 20 point lead. What we are seeing is random flunctations in a poll.

[Tellurian]

24. ARG has been the most reliable poll to date!

But you have my permission to spin that fact any way you want!

Your spin won't have any effect either way.

[adoraz]

27. lol are you being serious?

it obviously isn't, but it has always had Obama favored. I want to see the cross tabs for this (if anything has changed).

[Drunken Irishman]

28. They have? Care to back that up?

They had Clinton winning Iowa by double digits.
They had Obama only winning South Carolina by 3.

The only state they've called right was Wisconsin and even then, they had Clinton up 7 at one point -- when every poll showed her losing.

So, try again. :)

[Tellurian]

38. Where's your proof?

Why should I take the word of a rabid Obama supporter?

[apocalypsehow]

60. You are the one that made the claim, therefore it is incumbent upon you to provide the proof.

You really aren't very good with this whole logic and evidence thing, are you?

[Drunken Irishman]

77. Eh, I showed her anyway...it's fun making those fanatical Clinton fans out to be fools.

[Drunken Irishman]

74. Aight.

Iowa:

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/iadem8-717.html

Clinton: 34
Obama: 21

Obama won by 8.

New Hampshire:

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/nhdem8-718.html

Obama: 40
Clinton: 31

Clinton won by 3

South Carolina:

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/scdem8-714.html

Obama: 39
Clinton: 36

Obama won by 30

California:

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/cadem8-705.html

Clinton: 49
Obama: 45

Clinton won by 10

Delaware:

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/dedem8-701.html

Clinton: 44
Obama: 42

Obama won, but I can't remember by how much.

Connecticut:

Clinton: 48
Obama: 35

Obama won, but I can't remember by how much.

And the only poll they seem to have gotten right, Wisconsin:

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/widem8-703.html

Obama 52
Clinton 42

And even then, they were 7 points off.

There's your proof, enjoy.

[DUyellow]

32. prove it

[Renew Deal]

50. Even the clinton people will argue with you about that.

[Melinda]

62. Buzzz, wrong answer - Gallup claims that prize. Proof that you are wrong posted below:

ARG POLL:

State Date Poll (HC, BO) Primary Date Results (HC, BO) Offset (HC, BO) Gross Error
Wisconsin 2/17-18 (42, 52) 2/19 (41, 58) -1, 6 7
Virginia 2/10-11 (40, 57) 2/12 (35, 64) -5, 7 12
Tennessee 2/3-4 (59, 37) 2/5 (54, 41) -5, 4 9
South Carolina 1/24-25 (36, 39) 1/26 (27, 55) -9, 16 25
New Hampshire 1/6-7 (31, 40) 1/8 (39, 37) +8, -3 11
Missouri 1/31-2/1 (42, 44) 2/5 (48, 49) +6, 5 1
Maryland 2/10-11 (38, 55) 2/12 (37, 60) -1, 5 6
Illinois 1/30-31 (40, 51) 2/5 (33, 65) -7, 14 21
Delaware 1/31-2/1 (44, 42) 2/5 (43, 53) -1, 11 12
Connecticut 1/30-31 (48, 35) 2/5 (47, 51) -1, 16 17
California 2/3-4 (49, 45) 2/5 (52, 43) +3, -2 5
AVERAGE 11.5

American Research Group is, on average, 11.5 points off the actual results with their polls. A lot of that has to do with the fact that they have continuously under-represented the support that Barack Obama draws. In South Carolina, they predicted that Obama was up by 3 when he won by 28%. In Delaware they predicted a race that was within the margin of error when Obama won by 10 points.

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/articles/american-research-group-2008-primary-grade-022308001.html

RASMUSSEN:

State Date Poll (HC, BO) Primary Date Results (HC, BO) Offset (HC, BO) Gross Error
Wisconsin 2/13 (43, 47) 2/19 (41, 58) -2, +11 13
Virginia 2/6-7 (37, 55) 2/12 (35, 64) -2, +9 11
Tennessee 1/30 (49, 35) 2/5 (54, 41) +5, +6 1
South Carolina 1/21 (28, 43) 1/26 (27, 55) -1, +12 13
New Hampshire 1/5-6 (28, 38) 1/8 (39, 37) +11, -1 12
Maryland 2/6 (31, 57) 2/12 (37, 60) +6, +3 3
Connecticut 1/27 (40, 40) 2/5 (47, 51) +7, +11 4
New York 1/31-2/1 (52, 34) 2/5 (57, 40) +5, +6 1
New Jersey 1/30 (49, 37) 2/5 (54, 44) +5, +7 3
Georgia 1/22 (35, 41) 2/5 (31, 67) -4, +26 30
Florida 1/27 (47, 25) 1/29 (50, 33, 14) +3, +8 5
Arizona 1/31 (45, 39) 2/5 (51, 42) +6, +3 3
Alabama 1/31 (46, 41) 2/5 (42, 56) -4, +15 19
California 1/29 (43, 40) 2/5 (52, 43) +9, +3 6
AVERAGE 8.9%

The problem with dissecting these results is that Rasmussen Reports tends to release its latest polls about a week before the actual primary. For example the latest Wisconsin poll was surveyed on February 13th when the primary was held on February 19th. And the Super Tuesday state polls were surveyed at the end of January. So it is tough to say how accurate of a pollster they are when their results are a week old but we can look at this data to find patterns.

First of all, despite having a gross error of 30% in Georgia, their average error is just a shade under 9% which is better than American Research Group and Mason Dixon -- who have generally had polls taken just before the primaries. So we'll give more credibility to Rasmussen Reports polls when we see them.

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/articles/rasmussen-reports-2008-primary-grade-022808003.html

And Gallup:

Democratic Polls
USA Today/Gallup Poll
Date: 2/22-23
Added: 2/24/08
Est. MoE = 2.7%

Barack Obama 47%
Hillary Clinton 46%
Mike Gravel 1%
Unsure 5%
Other 1%
Source

In history, the Gallup polls have been accurate as far as predicting many of the outcomes of the elections, most notably the Presidential elections. Most of the time, they predict the correct winner, even if the rest of the polls predict someone else. This is one of the most historically accurate methods of poll taking.

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/gallup-national-polls.html

Read that one, and then read all other national poll histrical results by navigating the usaelectionpolls.com site.

*Edited to add: One only need compare ARG's prediction/polling data with the primary result margins to see how wrong they have been all primary season long. It's all there in the first paragraph I posted.

[RBInMaine]

23. And Obama has SURGED in Ohio which is now tied.

Gee, you mean she's gaining some votes again after having been ahead by 20 points in both TX and Ohio three weeks ago???

[rodeodance]

35. ******In Texas, Clinton Gets Girl Power*****---this is IT:-)

Forum Name General Discussion: Primaries
Topic subject In Texas, Clinton Gets Girl Power
Topic URL http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4837131#4837131
4837131, In Texas, Clinton Gets Girl Power
Posted by sueragingroz on Sat Mar-01-08 05:39 PM

Amy Chozick reports on the presidential race from Dallas.

Sen. Hillary Clinton is hoping some good old-fashioned girl power can help her in the pivotal contests in Ohio and Texas on Tuesday.

Today in San Antonio Clinton stopped by a downtown hotel for a quick fund-raiser before traveling to Fort Worth and Dallas for rallies. The donors, who contributed an average of $250 and brought in roughly $200,000, got a surprise visit from feminist icon Gloria Steinem.

The activist and founder of Ms. magazine gave a nod to the few men in the audience promising to give them protection from the “upcoming revolution.” She said there are more women who identify as feminists than as Republicans.

She defended Clinton’s vote to authorize the war in Iraq, saying both former presidential nominees John Edwards and Sen. Joseph Biden voted the same way and were not attacked for it. Steinem said the storm of criticism Clinton has received from Sen. Barack Obama and others over her vote is a “double standard.”

Steinem recounted the history of South Texas and the fighting between the Spanish and the Native Americans. “Peace came in the form of a woman,” she said, implying that it can come again with Clinton.

It was a “you-go-girl” kind of day for Clinton, who also picked up the endorsement of “Desperate Housewives” star and native Texan Eva Longoria Parker and “Working Girl” star Melanie Griffith. The two actresses will be joining Clinton in Texas on Monday as she holds a live interactive “town hall” during which voters across Texas can ask questions via satellite.


From

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/03/01/in-texas-clinton-gets-girl-power/?mod=googlenews_wsj

[Tellurian]

43. haha! The Feminine overtakes the abysmal corrupt Obama..

Obama shrinks and shrivels after truthful water is thrown on his campaign... woo-hoo!

[kwenu]

49. No. That only happens to witches. I'll stop here.

[rodeodance]

54. good stop. that is a wise move. thank you

[Tellurian]

73. Good thinking on your part..

you haven't been here long enough to become an irrational Obama supporter, YET!

[Drunken Irishman]

118. Pot meet kettle. You're the most blatantly irrational person on this board.

If I knew they allowed 24 hour internet access at the nut ward, I'd almost be certain that's where you're from.

Larry Sinclair, is that you?

[rodeodance]

53. thats the power of GIRL POWER:-)

[Tellurian]

72. Yep, Look at the pic in the msnbc headline before it changes..

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/

[kwenu]

78. Are you sure you're for Hillary?

because that headline doesn't help your side.

[rodeodance]

82. you are jealous---it was a huge lovely pic of Hillary.

[rodeodance]

79. just did---HUGE PIC OF HER WITH THE CROWD---and BO has little pic. te he

[kwenu]

83. O-I-C. You react to pictures instead of reading words.

That's nice.

[rodeodance]

88. lovely

[anonymous171]

120. What;'s "the Feminine"?

[kwenu]

46. What!?

Okay. You win. We Texans will all vote for Hillary now because Eva Longoria Parker and Melanie Griffith said so.

NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[rodeodance]

52. love it.

[rodeodance]

39. REC

[sueragingroz]

40. the last mo is the killer mo

she is peaking at exactly the right time

[rodeodance]

42. luv it

[UALRBSofL]

44. Herman, what happened to Vermont?

This is terrible. He leads 2 to 1. :(

[RememberWellstone]

51. The balloon is dropping

on Obama..reality bites and it taste like shit to the Obamanites.:evilgrin:

[kwenu]

55. The only reality....

that Hillary has to deal with is wondering what excuse she can come up with to justify maintaining a campaign after Tuesday.

[Name removed]

59. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[mckeown1128]

63. I know there was another poll showing gains for Hillary but...

I missed the other two.. Can anyone link whatever post has the other surges??? I am a poll junkie... and I need my fix.

[meow mix]

67. the extreme turnout makes these polls even more unreliable

but im glad you have something to make you feel better =)

[ExtraGriz]

69. hes leading with the republican and independent votes

and she's leading with the democrats votes..........wtf???

[DemGa]

70. I knew it!: The Democratic Base is waking up!! -----NT

[CyberPieHole]

76. Kick and rec for Hillary Clinton 44th President of the United States...

Let's hope she can pull this off and let's hope she has succeeded in getting her message across.

:kick:

[rodeodance]

91. everything is crossed

[CyberPieHole]

99. "Eyes" too?

*with apologies to anyone on DU who suffers from crossed~eyed~itis.

[kwenu]

103. You'd need to have crossed-eyes to think Hillary has a "surge."

[Name removed]

104. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Hoof Hearted]

80. Wooo Hooo! Great news for the LADY!

Go Hillary!

:bounce:

[rodeodance]

93. Look at the pic in the msnbc headline before it changes..

Yep, Look at the pic in the msnbc headline before it changes..

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/
[

[kwenu]

98. She looks great when airbrushed!!!!!

[rodeodance]

117. hey sweetie---she can take your little smart talk on anyday.

[ProSense]

84. Here's what it looks like:

[mythyc]

92. quote-unquote "Surges" ... you Hillbots crack me up

up 3%, ... um yeah, a surge. a "surge"

must pang to be this desperate eh, spinning every mediocre headline you can to create this facade of hillarated omniscience & inevitability. worked really well for her last time. this kind of spin is like a dog chasing it's own tale.

"surges" = :puke:

.

:rofl:

[Obamaniac]

96. YAWN!

Isn't this typical of Clinton supporters: getting all excited about polls leading up to a primary only to suffer a crushing defeat on primary day. Then trying to explain that the primary didn't matter at all.

Good luck with that.

Personally I like our chances come Tuesday.

[kwenu]

100. You'd think the HILLBOTS would be used to it by now!!!!!

[rodeodance]

105. ~ ALL-FIRED UP FOR THE LADY~ YES SHE WILL~~~~~~~~~~~

[Obamaniac]

110. Obama will win...

Get used to that.

This race is over next Thursday.

[rodeodance]

115. still got that cracked crystal ball you read from?

[avrdream]

109. Wow, those are good numbers to see this late in the game.

Could something actually be getting through?

Interesting how low the undecideds are now.

[Manifestor_of_Light]

113. Verrry interesting.

And to the people who accuse her of "being a phony crier, just to get sympathy":

If you were that worn out and exhausted by running for President, or any public office, you'd start crying if somebody said "boo" to you!!!

It's grueling. Ever think about that? I think she's held it together amazingly well. She's admitted she doesn't have as much energy as Bill does.

[Hepburn]

114. Wha????

A "SURGE" is tying with Obama??? What is this??? George Bush speak???

Unreal...:eyes:

[rodeodance]

116. at least it is not Obamaspek; "I agree with Hillary"

[Political Heretic]

121. None of it matters, though he's still going to win Texas - he's already got the nomination.

The only way he won't have the nomination is if superdegates subvert the process and go against the person with the most pledged delegates - if they do that, they will cut democratic turn out in half, disenfranchise the voters, and lose the general and they know it.

The only reason I want Obama to win both TX and OH Tuesday is so that we don't have to continue delaying the inevitable with the clintuckabee campaign.