I hope Obama fans here are ready for the possibility that Hillary will pull it out in TX and OH

[More Than A Feeling]

Texas Tracking Polls Show Clinton Gaining

by Todd Beeton, Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 07:07:23 PM EST

This is very interesting, both the Reuters/Zogby and the WFAA/Belo tracking polls show Hillary Clinton gaining on Barack Obama in their most recent batches of polling.

Candidate Reuters/Zogby 2/27-29 (2/26-28) WFAA/Belo 2/26-28 (2/25-27) RCP 5-poll Ave.
Obama 45 (48) 45 (46) 45.8
Clinton 43 (42) 46 (45) 45

Which is really to say that it's all tied up, but Clinton will no doubt take it over "Obama's running away with this thing," which seemed to be the case just a day ago. Since yesterday, the RCP average has gone from Obama up by more than 2% to Obama up by less than 1%.

So, what's responsible for Clinton's renewed strength?

John Zogby's analysis:

Hillary Clinton may be making a connection with Democratic voters in Texas, especially among those in key demographic groups that have supported her all year. Among those age 65 and older, she has made strong gains in the last 24 hours of polling. She also retains a big lead among Hispanic voters in Texas, and has made small gains among white voters.

In other words, Hillary's base is coming home, just as they did, you'll recall, in New Hampshire.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/3/1/18110/63554

Hillary's not going down easy.

[gateley]

1. Define "pull it out". nt

[More Than A Feeling]

4. Do enough to keep the party from publicly/privately pressuring her to concede.

In other words, winning a pass to Pennsylvania.

[dchill]

9. The Clinton Campaign will find a way...

to spin a pass to Pennsylvania. Not win, spin.

[gateley]

34. It could happen --

I'm not going to be surprised by anything that occurs during this campaign, after all the twists and turns it's gone through.

[Kittycat]

2. I fully expect it to be close in both states.

But I do not expect Clinton to get the margins she needs to continue on with any bit of grace or dignity.

[stop the bleeding]

3. God I can not wait until Tuesday,

the suspense is killing me

[NightWatcher]

5. it may be close, but not the 65% that she needs to make up from 11 losses in a row

close will be fine, an Obama win will be great

[rug]

13. I thought she had to get 97% and lose 25 pounds to be considered viable.

[NashVegas]

20. LOL

That's hilarious. Thanks.

[smiley_glad_hands]

43. Uncalled for. eom

[JAbuchan08]

52. it certainly couldn't hurt.

[Yael]

6. Are Hillary fans preparing that she may not pull it off?

I am not being a snark. John dropping out like he did was a real bomb that I wasn't mentally prepared for.

I don't relish the thought of anyone else going through that.

[LisaL]

10. I plan to vote for her.

I realize she might not pull it off. Whatever will be, will be.

[stop the bleeding]

22. That is completely American

:patriot::applause::kick:

I am a supporter of Obama, but I live in FL :(, however I love the the fact that you're sticking to your vote, it is very democratic

[Political Heretic]

44. I agree.

[Zhade]

64. Of course not. They think she's OWED the nomination.

It'll be great when she loses.

[quantass]

7. God help Hillary if it ends up being CLOSE -- Remember: She must win Big to Survive

Obama doesn't have to win...he just needs to keep it close....its all in the math...So to think Obama has to win is incorrect. If Hilary doesnt win by nearly 20 points in each state she is mathematically finished a la Huckabee.

[LostInAnomie]

8. I hope Hillary fans are ready to uproot the goal posts again....

... and again... and again.

[dchill]

11. The firewall is now Guam. n/t

[Indenturedebtor]

18. Lol

Soon it will be "If she can broker in the convention she'll be teh winnar"

There's no way she'll get the margins she needs and NO WAY theyll broker the convention in her favor if he's 200 votes up.

[IDemo]

33. I don't know. Have they voted yet at the Antarctic base station?

[quantass]

12. LOL....so true...

[greguganus]

The goal posts have been sited in Rhode Island. n/t

[Pirate Smile]

14. She needs to win with at least 65% in both places.

[RBInMaine]

15. She was ahead in both states by around 20 points 3 weeks ago.

So if she wins by a few points that's big news??? The real story, if that happens, is how much ground Obama made up. If she doesn't win BIG, she only gains a few more delegates and can not catch up. That's a "victory"???

[More Than A Feeling]

25. I think at this point, she'll take what she can get and be grateful

for small favors.

[dailykoff]

16. Yes, we may well witness another New Hampshire "miracle"

thanks to the voting machines used in Texas. That would be unfortunate. However, I am confident that Obama would recover, like he recovered from NH, and win the nomination -- barring tragedy, which is really Clinton's only hope.

[DUyellow]

32. What was the delegate totals for NH?

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

17. these are two states easiest to rig the elections in, so its possible

lets hope it doesn't happen.

[dailykoff]

21. Yes, exactly.

nt

[mtnester]

48. Look, in 2006 Ohio threw those effing bums out

and our new SOS has declared Diebold machines to be a security nightmare and is desparately trying to get an entire new system working, while fighting a Repub senate and house majority at the statehouse level at every turn.

So before you start with rigging the vote in Ohio, do some research. And Texans should be pissed about your slur on their voting process as well. Especially if you are insinuating that voting will be rigged in favor of a certain Dem candidate...you were not really trying to say Dems are vote riggers as opposed to Repubs were you?

And I am in the undecided camp before you start anything down that road. I will make up my mind in the ballot box Tuesday. Also, I was part of the on the ground Election Protection activities in Ohio in 2004 and 2006, and will be in 2008. Also gave sworn rtestimony for the Ohio recount, of which I was part of and witnessed, in 2004. So you don't want to go down that road either.

As an Ohioan, I am a bit insulted, thanks.

[Zhade]

65. Clinton's already trying to cheat via MI/FL/TX.

Her being an unethical scumbag doesn't mean the voters are - most probably don't even know she's trying to cheat her way out of defeat.

[sandnsea]

19. This is the same poll that came out yesterday

She's only up 1% with women, she's done.

[More Than A Feeling]

23. If you say so.

I've got no dog in this fight. I'm just waiting for this thing to be settled so I can start backing the nominee.

[blogslut]

24. We'll see.

Two days.

[Mojambo]

26. Narrow wins just give her cover to take it to the convention even though numerically she can't win.

Doesn't seem like a healthy development to me.

[splat]

29. Momentum shift.

[Zhade]

66. You wish.

See ya Tuesday!

[Teaser]

27. Why should I care either way

Either Obama ends it this week, or in a few weeks. Doesn't matter to me.

[Barack_America]

28. I spent my entire Saturday organizing for Obama in PA.

And am doing so again tomorrow.

We're taking this possibility very seriously.

[DUyellow]

30. LOOK at this trend....

GOBAMA!!!!!!

[FrenchieCat]

31. Considering that Hillary was ahead in Texas by a soo much after Wisconsin.....

only tells me that if it is close, it is more of a testament as to Obama being strong than it does to Hillary Clinton being strong.

But you knew that. ;)

[book_worm]

35. I think that is a possibility, but both states will be close so will the delegates

and so Obama will still be ahead and will still have won more primaries and caucuses than she has and then it's on to the convention.

[stillcool]

36. I expect Obama to do well...

better than was expected a short time ago. Anyone hear anything about that lawsuit?

[johnnydrama]

37. all 4 states

On Tuesday look to be a total wash, within 10 delegates either way. Obama is up by 150 pledged delegates. 10 either way won't change anything.

[Beregond2]

38. Pull

After the disgusting tactics she has employed lately, anything she achieves will be so tainted, it will do her no good.

[grantcart]

39. I just went thru 30 articles of local newspapers to see if there was

any hint that might indicate a surprise. I found none two key things

1) Early voting in Texas was astronomiclly high

2) Obama has organized over 40,000 volunteers in Texas.

3) There seemed to be alot more openly Hispanic support in Texas than I had seen before. George Lopez in El Paso could be decisive, it turns out he has been going there for years and is extremely popular. He was pulling crowds the same size as Bill Clinton


But anything can happen

Also Rhode Island could be a shock for Hillary

[Joe the Revelator]

40. Unless she wins with margins in the 60's, she lost

nt

[LadyVT]

41. WHOO HOOO!!!!!!!! Thanks for posting.

[Honeycombe8]

42. I expect her to get single digit wins in both OH & TX. But that won't help her. nt

[Political Heretic]

45. I am sticking with my TX: Obama +6 Ohio: Clinton +1 prediction

[mattclearing]

46. Three more days. n/t

[cali]

47. Even if she wins narrowly in OH and TX,; it's not enough.

But here's why, she's unlikely to pull it out in TX: Obama has an established ground game there, while Hillary only put together a ground game within the last 3 or 4 weeks. It's partially a caucus. He's outspending her 2:1 on TV advertising. Districts are weighted in a way that favors Obama. So the likelihood of her pulling out a win in TX is not that great.

If she loses either OH or TX, she's done. Oh, she can keep going but she'll just continue to lose ground and become a curiosity rather than a viable candidate.

[From The Left]

49. Even if Hill Wins in TX & OH

She won't win by 65%. So her delegate net will be meaningless.

[Kahuna]

50. I am. I consider myself a "realist." She would gain "bragging rights."..

But she still will not have enough delegates to "wheedle" the super delegates into up-ending the will of the voters and select her. You have to be a realist too. ;)

[More Than A Feeling]

61. You mean her supporters will have to be realists, too.

I do not support Hillary, or Obama. I was an Edwards supporter, and now I am just waiting for the nominee.

[Vinca]

51. She needs to pull it out with foolish numbers to take the lead and

that's definitely not going to happen.

[mudesi]

53. Gaining? She was ahead by 20 points a couple of weeks ago! (nm)

[rug]

54. They'll go from denial to anger to psychosis in a nanosecond.

[Drunken Irishman]

55. Why not quote the new Zogby poll that has Obama +2 over the old poll?

[More Than A Feeling]

58. Didn't know there was one.

I thought the one I posted was the latest, because it was the top post on MyDD at the time I orginally made this thread.

[Drunken Irishman]

62. Oh, well the new Zogby poll has Obama up again.

www.zogby.com

[rodeodance]

59. you are not too smart are you?---or else you can see op posted last evening.

[Faygo Kid]

56. I'm ready. Was Hillary ready to go 0-11 with the closest loss by 17 points?

Can't believe this is still going on. Looking forward to March 5.

[More Than A Feeling]

60. Clearly not.

I was quite amused when her elitist strategy failed miserably, in the sense that she failed to use inevitability, D.C. connections, and the Clinton name to run away with it. That is what she gets for enmeshing herself in stagnant D.C. consultants.

[rodeodance]

57. You are doing good work Hillary--keep it up

[Johnny__Motown]

63. we are ready, are Clinton supporters ready for it to not help? To Little To Late

[still_one]

67. Pull what out? A few weeks ago she was ahead by double digits

Not only has she run a terrible campaign, but based on all the trouble she is having against Obama, what make anyone believe she won't screw up against mccain if she gets the nomination?

[Robbins]

68. Tuesday

As a Obama supporter I am fully prepared for him to narrowly lose Ohio Inless there are new polls out Monday that show him moving ahead.I am not writing him out In Ohio just being prepared for the possibilty that Hillary will win In Ohio.However virtually every poll has him ahead In Texas.Yes they are small leads but still leads.If I had to predict right now I would say he wins texas and she wins Ohio.

[still_one]

69. I am not arguing that it is close, I am arguing that if this is the way she runs a campaign

that was suppossed to be the extrodinary Clinton machine, I have my doubts she will be that great if she gets the nomination in the general election

Just my view. Yes, I will vote for her if she gets the nomination, but based on the tough time she has had against Obama, and the lack of differentiation between mccain and her from 2002 to 2006, I think those independents that are flocking to Obama, will not be so anxious to flock to her

[theboss]

70. The only real risk to Obama is Clinton getting 60 percent of the vote

If she hits that number, it's a very bad day.

A 51-49 Hillary win in each state would not be ideal, but it still keeps him as the front-runner and presumptive nominee.