Breaking Reuters/Cspan/HC/Zogby poll: Obama leads in TX by 4/Clinton leads in Ohio by 1

[Tropics_Dude83]

New Reuters poll:

(TX)
Obama-47%
Clinton-43%

(OH)

Clinton-47%
Obama-46%

[MadBadger]

1. CONFUSION

[Drunken Irishman]

27. Confused why?

[MadBadger]

49. Confused by what the trend is. Different polls give different trends

[MadBadger]

2. Who to trust? ARG or Zogby?

[Renew Deal]

7. Jesus

http://www.freewebs.com/rakovski/Jesus%20Christ,%20The%20Great.jpg

[quantass]

38. Lol!

[Drunken Irishman]

41. Either way, the results favor Obama. If they're tied, he gets the edge regardless.

[MadBadger]

53. He needs to just win one of them, and its over

[Drunken Irishman]

58. Yup, or even tie Clinton like Missouri and it's over.

[MadBadger]

60. No, I think we need to hear either in Ohio or TX that hes the projected winner

Otherwise this thing goes on.

[Drunken Irishman]

61. It'll go on, but it'll be over, know what I mean?

She'll become the Mike Huckabee of the Democrats.

[MadBadger]

63. If Obama wins one, I think the major endorsers come out of the shed

Pelosi, Edwards, Biden, Maybe Gore, in order to unite the party.

[Renew Deal]

3. That means Hillary's big day in Texas was matched by a day for Obama.

And Ohio is tight!

[jezebel]

13. Zogby quote inside

But Zogby said Obama had bounced back with a strong day of polling on Saturday after a strong day for Clinton on Friday.

"He seems to have responded pretty well to the Clinton attacks and neutralized that," he said.

[writes3000]

30. Clinton's strong day on Friday wasn't so strong after all.

According to Tropic's post below, Zogby made a mistake re: the Friday numbers.

[BearSquirrel2]

51. Either that or ...

Either that or he is just taking a different sample and getting a different estimate of the true parameter, both of which are within the margin of error.

[Pirate Smile]

4. So this includes tonight's polling? Link?

[gabeana]

5. So I guess with other post about clinton's surge

I guess we can say this is an Obama Surge? fair is fair?

[ORDem]

22. Stop using that word "surge". Clearly sexist. n/t

:crazy:

[gabeana]

25. Gotcha

:toast:

[quantass]

40. He did Getcha there..

[writes3000]

6. Tropics_Dude83, you are going to make yourself sick

with worry over each of these polls.

My advice is relax, volunteer, have a glass of wine, read a book.

I appreciate the info but I'm worried about your stress levels, LOL.

[Tropics_Dude83]

10. LOL I know

LOL yeah, it's stressful but I so love politcs and this is like the mother of super bowls for us so it's all cool.

I can relax now.......until the next poll that is:)

[MadBadger]

11. Well it appears the belo tracking poll wont be out tonight. So you can relax

[Tropics_Dude83]

12. I am a Zogby member-yes

Here's part of their article which should appear soon:

Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle Poll: Democratic Races in Ohio and Texas Remain Tight in Closing Days Before Tuesday's Elections
Republican John McCain remains well ahead of Mike Huckabee, but the Arkansan gains a little ground
UTICA, New York – The Democratic Party presidential primaries in Texas and Ohio have settled into a deadlock between Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois, with Clinton holding a scant one-point lead in Ohio and Obama leading by just four points in Texas, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle two-day telephone tracking poll shows.

The two delegate-rich states with elections on Tuesday are among the last of the big states left in the primary election season, and both candidates stand to split the delegates under the partys proportional delegate apportionment scheme.

The surveys, conducted by Zogby International, also show Republican front-runner John McCain, the senator from Arizona, retaining a sizable lead over closest challenger Mike Huckabee of Arkansas. But Huckabee made modest gains over the last 24 hours of polling.

Texas - Democrats
2-28/3-1
2-27/29
2-26/28

Clinton
43%
43%
42%

Obama
47%
45%
48%

Gravel
1%
<1%
<1%

Someone else
2%
3%
3%

Not sure
7%
8%
7%


In the Democratic race in Texas, Clinton and Obama saw stability set in among the key demographic groups. Obama leads slightly among men, and the two are essentially tied among women. Clinton continues to enjoy a sizable lead among Hispanic voters, and also leads by 7% among white voters there.

Ohio - Democrats
2-28/3-1
2-27/29
2-26/28

Clinton
47%
45%
44%

Obama
46%
45%
42%

Gravel
1%
1%
1%

Someone else
1%
3%
5%

Not sure
5%
6%
9%


Obama holds a two-to-one lead among voters under age 30, while Clinton leads 56% to 31% among voters age 65 and older. Obama continues to lead in the Dallas and Houston areas, while Clinton leads in more rural areas, including southern Texas.

In Ohio, the Democratic candidates have solidified their support among those groups that have come to be familiar supporters of each. Obama leads Clinton among men by a 52% to 41% margin, while Clinton leads Obama among women by an identical 52% to 41% edge.

Obama leads among Ohio voters under age 50, while Clinton leads among voters over age 50. Clinton leads in the rural areas of Ohio and in Cincinnati, while Obama leads in the Democratic bastion of Cleveland and the state capital of Columbus.

[Tropics_Dude83]

15. Remember that double digit Clinton lead yesterday?

ROFL at this:
NOTE: Yesterdays release incorrectly mentioned that Clinton led Obama by double-digits in Texas in the one-day of polling completed on Friday, Feb. 29. Her one-day advantage was actually one point.

[Pirate Smile]

16. Oh, geez. Thanks for posting the information.

:thumbsup:

[dkf]

24. That nearly gave me a heart attack yesterday. Now we find out it was wrong.

Whew.

[writes3000]

28. LOL! Oh man.

I didn't believe it yesterday. I'm glad to see them correct themselves.

[Drunken Irishman]

43. Bwahaha, that's great.

And that's the numbers Clinton supporters were pointing to as evidence of her "surge".

:evilgrin:

[closeupready]

8. TX doesn't count, so if Obama wins, it won't matter.

But meanwhile, we have to count the delegates in FL and MI at ALL COSTS!!!!!!!

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

32. Clinton campaign doesn't want TX caucus results released

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4834528&mesg_id=4837589

[lapfog_1]

39. That's because Clinton's stormtroop... er, make that

precinct captains have instructions on how to "take control" of the caucuses...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4840304

probably as a way to try to influence who is let in the buildings to caucus.

Say anything, do anything.

[MadBadger]

9. I'm guessing your a Zogby member, cuz I havent seen the poll appear yet on the web

[jezebel]

14. link to poll results

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN2964115720080302

[thewiseguy]

17. Good news for Obama...

However I am not too concerned about these polls anymore. They seem to be changing by 1-2 points on a daily basis and essentialy this race will be close.
As an Obama supporter, I would have taken that given how far behind he was two weeks ago. I dont see any realistic chance for Hillary to catch Obama in the pledged delegate category.

[Tarheel_Dem]

18. k&r.......n/t

[cliffordu]

19. INTRADE??

Obama: 85.9

Hillary: 13.6

Looks like a horse race from here.... :crazy:

:rofl:

[Political Heretic]

50. I LOVE Intrade!

[gabeana]

20. get it right after California

I was actually concerned last night because, after Zogby's embarrassment in California I'm thinking that this polling operation is under major pressure not to get it wrong this time, We are not talking some little fly by polling operation. So hopefully these are right after Zogby is tightening up their methods

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

update on LA County, tens of thousands of ballots might not EVER be counted

See the post in Election Reform Forum
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x498191

[Drunken Irishman]

21. To quote Clinton backers: OBAMA IS SURGING!!!!!!!1111111111111ONE

:D

[DUyellow]

29. LOL, best post of the night

[Political Heretic]

52. I AM FRIGHTEN !!!1111!!1

[MadBadger]

23. Do you have cross tabs for the poll? I'm interested in the numbers for blacks, latninos, etc

[bigdarryl]

26. If there both tied in TX among women thats not good news for Hillary

that means Obama is cutting into a part of her base BUT and I say BUT its ZOGBY and you know in the past how hes fucked up other polls

[LadyVT]

31. All within the margin of error. The outcome is unknown.

[thewiseguy]

34. Thats good for Obama

How is she going to make up her pledged delegate deficit?

[Drunken Irishman]

37. So was Wisconsin prior to the vote.

[lapfog_1]

42. But, without a decisive win in both Ohio and Texas

there just isn't anyway for Hillary to catch up...

There isn't any way that this isn't a huge victory for Obama, because all he had to do was make it close.

Which he has done.

[TwilightGardener]

33. Glad to see this before I go to bed--thanks!!

[bigdarryl]

35. either way you look at this its not good news for Clinton she was leading by DOUBLE digit in ....

both state less than a month ago. the trend is continuing everywhere Obama campaigns he catches up with her

[BeatleBoot]

44. Republicans filling the void.

GOBAMA!

http://republicansforobama.org/?q=node/359


E-mail to send to Texas Republicans


Attention All Texas Republicans and Independents!!

On March 4th, Texas Republicans and Independents will have an opportunity to end Hillary Clinton's (and Bill's) presidential ambitions once and for all!

Since Texas has on open primary, Republicans and Independents should sign in at their polling place and request a Democratic ballot. They should then vote for Barack Obama. Even James Carville admits that if Hillary loses Texas, "she's done!" Republicans can help make this a reality!!! Just think, no more Clintons in the White House!

Voting Democratic this one time will have NO effect on your ability to vote in the next Republican primary or obviously on your vote in November. Since John McCain has the Republican nomination locked up, voting for McCain or Huckabee at this point will have no effect on the outcome on the Republican side.

After you vote during early voting or on March 4th, you ARE NOT done! Report back to your regular polling place at 7PM on March 4th to sign the Barack Obama list for caucus delegates. In a little known Texas voting quirk, 67 delegates to the Democratic convention will be seated because of these caucuses. This is a full one-third of the total number of Texas delegates. For Hillary to lose, she has to lose the primary votes AND the caucus votes.

I urge you to vote against Hillary Clinton by voting for Barack Obama. Please forward this e-mail to all your Texas Republican and Independent friends so that we can help ensure the Clinton's defeat on March 4th!!!

[Drunken Irishman]

47. When was the last time Clinton won the Democratic vote against Obama?

Wasn't Wisconsin.
Wasn't Hawaii
Wasn't Maryland.
Wasn't DC.
Wasn't Virginia.
Wasn't Maine.
Wasn't Washington.
Wasn't Nebraska.
Wasn't Louisiana.

You have to go all the way back to Super Tuesday to find a state where Clinton won more Democratic votes than Obama.

Your argument is getting more and more pathetic as this election goes on.

[BeatleBoot]

59. Kind of Coincides with McCain Wrapping up the Republican Primary

Pretty much....

[Drunken Irishman]

62. You fail.

When was the last time Clinton won more Democratic votes than Obama?

You have to go back to Super Tuesday. Every exit poll since Super Tuesday has shown Obama won the Democratic vote.

So give up this outdated, petty argument. It just makes you look ridiculous.

[barack the house]

36. One step beyond....link...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0sVcWbqpug

[Name removed]

45. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Forkboy]

46. then you're blind.

There's been new posters every single night all spewing the same nonsense for both sides. You, naturally, only see one side.

And hey...are you EVER going to have the courage to answer my question about triangulation? What's the skinny?

[LadyVT]

48. Latest polls as of 3/1: Go Hillary!

OHIO
Pollster Dates N/Pop Clinton Obama Undecided
ARG 2/29-3/1/08 600 LV 51 44 4
Zogby 2/27-29/08 701 LV 45 45 6
Mason-Dixon 2/27-29/08 625 LV 47 43 9
Rasmussen 2/28/08 851 LV 47 45 9
ARG 2/27-28/08 600 LV 50 45 3

TEXAS
Pollster Dates N/Pop Clinton Obama Undecided
ARG 2/29-3/1/08 600 LV 47 47 4
Zogby 2/27-29/08 708 LV 43 45 8
ARG 2/27-28/08 600 LV 44 51 3
Fox 2/26-28/08 600 LV 45 48 5

RHODE ISLAND
Pollster Dates N/Pop Clinton Obama Undecided
Fleming & Associates 2/24-27/08 401 LV 49 40 11

from pollster.com

[thewiseguy]

54. and Vermont already does not matter!

Obama is making it close in Ohio and keeping his edge in Texas.

[DUyellow]

56. WOW, LOL, BEST post of the night.... by far, the best......

[DUyellow]

57. I have to replay to my own post... LOL LOL LOL

[DUyellow]

55. what was it 2 weeks ago? LOL