McClatchy/MSNBC/Mason Dixon: Texas Obama 46 Clinton 45 Ohio Clinton 47 Obama 43

[Herman Munster]

http://www.newsobserver.com/politics/story/976633.html

In Ohio, Clinton had the support of 47 percent of likely voters, compared with 43 percent for Obama. In Texas, Obama came in at 46 percent and Clinton at 45 percent. Those standings are both within the polls' 4-percentage-point margin of error -- meaning the candidates are about even. Nearly one in 10 likely voters remains undecided in each state, more than enough to swing Tuesday's results in either direction.

[Drunken Irishman]

1. If this holds, looks like Clinton's campaign ends on March 5th!

[book_worm]

2. that's my birthday

It would be a nice present, but I expect she will still try to go until Pennsylvania.

[Herman Munster]

6. doubtful

she's going to win ohio by 7-8 and Texas by 3-4. All the polls have hispanic turnout at 28-32%. The Hillary turnout model is 35-40% hispanic turnout.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. And every poll, except one, has her losing.

So I don't know where you're getting these numbers she'll win Texas by 3-4 points.

[book_worm]

10. but most of the polls indicate that among early voters

Obama and Clinton are split or Obama is slightly ahead in Texas. I think a lot of Obama voters, particularly younger voters will vote on election day.

[lapfog_1]

12. That's enough to sink her campaign

She has to win by something like 15 points in both states to "win".

That's just to pull even with Obama in pledged delegates AFTER she wins a number of other races by the same margin (PA for one) and keeps the races she doesn't win to "draws".

The delegate math just doesn't work for her.

But not to worry, she isn't going to win Texas after all.

[Herman Munster]

13. that's the obama viewpoint

reality is if hillary wins both states, the media will ask why can't obama close the deal having all the momentum of 11 wins and outspending hillary 2 or 3 to 1. And then the Rezko trial begins on Monday.

Then it's a long 2 months to Pennsylvania where anything can happen.

[Drunken Irishman]

14. You do realize there are two states between PA , right?

And both Obama should win.

But it's all moot, Clinton isn't going to win Texas.

[lapfog_1]

16. No, that is the math.

She is behind 150 to 160 pledged delegates right now.

To catch up, she not only has to win everywhere, but she has to win big in the bigger states.

Personally, I don't think she is going to win either, but I think Ohio is too close to call.

I want this all over because I'm tired of the crap being flung around here (like that Rezko thing) for another 2 months. Does the name Norman Hsu ring a bell for you? He's already convicted. And it isn't an old Clinton scandal like White Water or the Marc Rich pardon, it's a handy dandy Hillary scandal.

So go ahead and fling the monkey poo about Rezko. It won't help your candidate one little bit.

[loveangelc]

15. how do you know what her turnout model is?

[cali]

20. I doubt she wins TX, but even if she wins precisely as you predict

she's likely to win FEWER pledged delegates than Obama on Tuesday. Eking out wins may enable her to go forward, but watch the SDs continue flocking to Obama. She needs big wins in both states and she won't get them- as even you admit.

[Herman Munster]

9. another thing

they are fighting like hell for Texas.

Between Bill and Hillary, they will have 15 events between them on Sunday and Monday all over Texas.

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/hq/texas/

03/02: Join President Clinton for a "Solutions for America" Rally in Houston!
03/02: Join President Clinton for a "Solutions for America" Rally in College Station!
03/02: Join President Clinton for a "Solutions for America" Rally in Marshall!
03/02: Join President Clinton for a "Solutions for America" Rally in Wichita Falls!
03/02: Join President Clinton for a "Solutions for America" Rally in Abilene!
03/03: Join President Clinton for a "Solutions for America" Rally in Corpus Christi!
03/03: Join President Clinton for a "Solutions for America" Rally in Edinburg!
03/03: Join Hillary for a "Solutions for America" Rally in Beaumont!
03/03: Join President Clinton for a "Solutions for America" Rally in Brownsville!
03/03: Join President Clinton for a "Solutions for America" Rally in Laredo!
03/03: Join Hillary for "The Stories of Texas: A Texas Sized Town Hall" in Austin!
03/03: Join President Clinton for a "Solutions for America" Rally in Eagle Pass!
03/03: Join Hillary for a "Solutions for America" Rally in Austin!
03/03: Join President Clinton for a "Solutions for America" Rally in Del Rio!
03/03: Join President Clinton for a "Solutions for America" Rally in El Paso!

[emilyg]

11. Fight on Hillary.!!!!!

[MadBadger]

3. Attack of the Shitty Polling COmpanies!

ARG, Zogby, Insider Advantage, Mason-Dixon. Oh Where oh Where is SurveyUSA

[book_worm]

5. My guess is they will release final polls for TX and OH on Monday.

[bluestateguy]

4. These polls have to stop

Legislation needs to be enacted.

[quantass]

7. Hmmm...Not good for Clinton..

[jlake]

17. Looks tight.....but I think Tuesday will stun many.

Yes She Can!

[JackORoses]

18. She can't win with 65% of the delegates, so in the end, No She Can't. Sorry.

[jlake]

19. She can shift the momentum. Yes She Can!

[rodeodance]

21. ~YES SHE WILL~ YES WE WILL~

[JackORoses]

29. Math isn't your strong suit, is it?

Hillary needs delegates, she can't win on the wishes of her supporters alone.

[jlake]

30. Hillary will win this thing! Math is on her side from now on out to the convention.

[JackORoses]

31. tell me more.

I really would like to see your mathematic theory on this.

How does she catch up and surpass him in pledged delegates without winning all the large States by 20 point margins?

[jlake]

32. After her victorious day on 3/4 - the mo will rally her to HUGE wins in NC & PA - and

superdelegates will surge to her..... this will be locked up for her before long.

Hill Yes! Yes She can! Hilly! Hilly! Hilly!

[RBInMaine]

23. Here's your reality check.

Here is what the Hillary people refuse to understand: She was 15-30 points ahead across TX, OH, and RI just a few weeks ago. Now it's essentially a tie in the polls. She has had HUGE demographic and establishment Dem advantages in these states. Even if, and I say IF she is able to pull it out slightly in these states, that is not much of a victory. Obama will have nearly beaten someone with huge advantages from the start, and will essentially have split the delegates. If Clinton does not win all the rest of the primaries by around 60%, she can't catch him in delegates. So we'll just see what happens. Obama has a strong GOTV operation. Let's just wait and see.

[skipos]

24. Here is your reality check. Penn & Hillary Inc. move the goalposts so every election is a victory

11 straight losses? Those states don't matter! The real battle is in Texas? Look at our 30% lead!
Texas looking close? I guess Obama can't close the deal! What a defeat for him!
Hillary loses Texas? That is because (choose one or more)
blacks
the youth
Democratic party activists
independents
Republicans
voted for him and they don't count!

She will play this game in every state.

[rodeodance]

25. Keeps you all on your toes.

[skipos]

27. Nah, when she lies about her goals it doesn't keep me on my toes

it just embarasses me. I like leaders who can admit problems, admit when they were wrong, and admit defeat. It is one of the many reasons I think Bush is awful. I am not sure that Hillary is totally to blame for her dreadful campaign (going from double digit leads in most polls in most states to a 100+ pledged delegate defecit) but she should have been smart enough to ignore Mark Penn.

[lapfog_1]

28. ignore him... hell she should have fired him long ago

and saved her campaign millions of dollars!

[davidpdx]

22. The problem for her is the delegate count

Even if best case she won both Ohio and Texas by 8% (assuming Vermont and RI cancel each other out) she only picks up 26 more delegates then Obama.

As someone else pointed out, there are also races in Mississippi and Wyoming within the next few weeks. That is another 36 delegates. Let's continue to take the very generous route and split them (I honest don't think this will happen since Clinton has pretty much decided not to compete in red states).

At that point, using RCP delegate count on 3/11 it would be:

Obama 1548
Clinton 1476

Run the numbers:
http://www.forbes.com/2008/02/27/obama-clinton-election-oped-cx_jb_0227delegates.html

[Demagitator]

26. Clinton Leads Obama in Ohio, Even in Texas, Poll Says -- Bloomberg

March 2 (Bloomberg) -- Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are in a close battle for support among likely Texas primary voters, while Clinton leads Obama in Ohio, an American Research Group Inc. poll shows.

Clinton, a New York senator, and Obama, an Illinois senator, are tied with 47 percent support each among Texas voters, the poll conducted Feb. 29-March 1 found. A similar poll taken Feb. 27-28 had Obama leading 51-44 percent.

In Ohio, Clinton is ahead 51-44 percent among the state's likely Democratic primary voters...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aTI5uR3NTGv4&refer=home