NJ Ras Poll : McCain 45%, Obama 43%. Let me tell you why I kinda like it.

[skipos]

Every election season, Republicans think NJ is in play. In 2004 they spent a bunch of money there, and Kerry easily won. In 2005, they spent a bunch of money there and Corzine won easily. In 2006 they spent a bunch of money there and Menedez easily won. When it comes to NJ, there always seem to be some pre-election polls that are unflattering to Dems, the Repubs throw a bunch of money at it, and then the Dem ends up winning easily.

Sure, I wish Obama and Clinton had double digit leads in every state, but that won't ever happen. State by state polls show them being competitive enough that I don't think either is in risk of losing the traditional blue states. But if there is any blue state that I like to see polls close in, it is NJ.

Do any NJ residents have any insight into the close pre-election polls/ not so close election results phenomenon?

[jakem]

1. being born and raised in nj, my best guess is:

there are a lot of assholes there, but they dont all vote?


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hoagie haven ROCKS!

[jlake]

2. In NJ? That is downright scary. But thanks for the spin.

[skipos]

4. I would hate for you to wet your pants

New Jersey (Quinnipiac) 2/13-18.

McCain 41%
Clinton 47%

McCain 39%
Obama 46%

Hopefully that makes you less scared. Have you ever followed NJ elections? What do you think about the difference in pre-election polls and actual results?

[jlake]

5. Spending half of my life on the NJ border, why yes I have.

I just think that Obama's polling is scary for someone who is supposedly uniting the country and going to win in a landslide.

[skipos]

6. So does the Quin poll make you less scared?

What do you think about the fact that Hillary's numbers are generally weaker than Obama's against McCain?
RCP average: Obama vs. McCain Obama 47.5 McCain 43.6
RCP average: Clinton vs. McCain Clinton 45.5 McCain 46.3
What do you think about the consistent underperformance of Dems in NJ pre-election polls vs. the actual results?
It would be great if you could answer these three questions.

[NJSecularist]

3. New Jersey residents are typically unhappy with their politicians (on both sides)..

but they re-elect them anyways. :)

It was pretty close in 2004 (too close for comfort), but I expect for a 10+ point win this year. Certain counties that Bush carried in 2004 McCain won't carry in 2008.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. Yup, I remember 2004 where New Jersey was "in play".

In fact, a few polls had Bush beating Kerry.

Didn't happen.

[karynnj]

8. I'm a NJ resident - and it is what you say

It is less true of the Eagleton polls that the Star Ledger usually has that the other ones. The internal Democratic polls that I know of only nth hand (where is large!) never were as shaky as those favorable to Republicans polls are.

Here what is likely at play is that McCain does have a lot of undeserved crediblity as a maverick, honest(!) and clean(!)politician. The media has lionized him for years. A campaign will likely expose some of those things as lies. (Yesterday someone posted an article on the "Kerry precedent" that I, a proud member of the DU JK group, never heard of. What it referred to was that Kerry in April 2004 released details on every meeting he had with lobbyists since 1989! He did this with a statement that he could defend everyone of them. http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/politics/5583891.html - skip to last heading in article. Obama should follow this precedent and demand McCain follow suit.

Also few in NJ likely know McCain is pro-life.