Columbus Dispatch OH Poll: Hillary 56 Obama 40

[Herman Munster]

http://www.dispatchpolitics.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/03/02/POLL02.ART_ART_03-02-08_A1_599GNRO.html?adsec=politics&sid=101

A new Dispatch Poll shows that the New York senator would lead in Ohio by as much as 16 percentage points under the usual turnout scenario dominated by loyal, older party voters -- especially if women show up in force, as they have in earlier primary states.

Even if you presume an unusual influx of young and black poll-goers, Clinton still would hold a healthy single-digit lead, the poll indicates.

So Tuesday's election likely comes down to how many independent voters decide to grab a Democratic ballot and vote for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner's prediction of a record 52 percent turnout means that well more than a quarter of Ohio's 5 million-plus nonpartisan voters will vote.

[skipos]

1. I think she will win Ohio, but I doubt it will be by that margin

The funny thing is, she NEEDS that kind of margin in both Ohio AND Texas to even come close to making a dent in Obama's delegate lead.

[Kahuna]

2. I gave her Ohio from the get go. No surprise there. nt

[NJSecularist]

3. This is a joke of a poll

In fact, it even says so.

Take 1996 turnout models, eliminate the fact that Ohio is a semi-open primary, and then VOILA! You have the results of this poll.

[MadBadger]

11. There poll is flawed even further when factoring in the dates

I mean a couple days of polling were before BOTH debates and six of the days are before the Ohio one.

[MadBadger]

4. This poll was done Feb 21-29. Call me doubtful

[CalGator]

5. Odd that you didn't post the name of the artice or the rest of its contents

"Ohioans like Clinton but see Obama as president"

Curious result

Even good news can be bad news for Hillary Clinton. Under the most optimistic, traditional Democratic primary turnout scenario, she is winning big in Ohio. But even under that scenario, Democrats think Barack Obama will win in November.
Whom will you vote for?

Clinton: 56%
Obama: 40%
Other: 4%

Who will win in November?

Obama: 52%
Clinton: 30%
Other: 18%

[bowens43]

6. No doubt HIllary will win the white women over 70 vote.....

but recent primaries have shown us that past scenarios and patterns are no longer relevant. Hillary might win Ohio but it's going to be very close and she needs an overwhelming win.

[Botany]

7. Garbage poll

mail in poll done a while ago.

The Dispatch is a repug rag.

[Kittycat]

8. Nice subliminal post there Hermie.

"dominated by loyal, older party voters -- especially.. women"

"unusual influx of young and black poll-goers"

The hangover you're going to have on Wednesday is going to be a duzy :)

ETA: Having lived in Columbus - that paper is a piece of shit. Thank you. :hi:

[VolcanoJen]

9. No way will her margin be that large.

It's intense here in Ohio and you would underestimate the Obama ground game at your own peril.

I think it'll be a nailbiter Tuesday night.

[Botany]

13. Columbus here

It is Not going to be a nailbiter .... Obama by at least 5.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4846785

BTW thanx for your work.

[VolcanoJen]

14. Obama's supposedly very strong in Columbus

What are you guys doing up there? We're rockin' and rollin' down here, but I sense it's tight.

That other thread was cool, by the way. :-)

I am so completely exhausted from canvassing! But it feels amazing to have been a part of the historic "One Million For Change In Ohio" effort. I sure do hope you're right about Tuesday... I think we're closing the gap rapidly, and our ground game? UNSTOPPABLE.

GOBAMA! Yes We Can, Ohio!

[texas_indy]

10. Interesting that 1/3 of Hillary supporters there believe Obama will be president.

from link in OP:

But there's one undeniable fact among Democrats: They overwhelmingly think that Obama will win the November election, regardless of whom they support in the primary. Even nearly a third of Clinton supporters in the poll expect Obama to be the next president.


Texas is Obama country! VIVA OBAMA!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fd-MVU4vtU

[DemGa]

12. The fad is about to get trounced ---NT