Predictions for Tuesday here.

[Colobo]

-Hillary will win Ohio (53% to 47%) and RI (54% to 46%)
-Obama will win TX (51% to 49%) and VT (65% to 35%)

That's about it. What do you think?

[NightWatcher]

1. I dont think that RI will be that big of a victory. I'd guess 3 points for Hillary

I'd also give Obama 4 more in Texas

[ulysses]

2. I think DU will take half an hour to load.

[uppityperson]

24. There will be lots of predictions, accusations, woohooing, whining, excitement, nastiness, predictio

[Lefty-Taylor]

25. U, I'm chuckling. And, my thoughts exactly. Tuesday will see a traffic jam here.

[NanceGreggs]

33. Ain't THAT the truth! n/t

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

3. I Think Hillary Won't Drop Out, And We'll Be Flooded Here By Obamite Tears.

And I only used obamite because it seemed to flow well, even though I hate the term lol.

[Kittycat]

7. If she loses (AKA Fails to make big gains), it won't matter if she drops out.

The SDs will shut her out.

[skipos]

12. I agree. She is going join Huckabee on the campaign of futility.

They majored in the same thing, and it ain't math.

[John Q. Citizen]

34. She won't drop out. She will be forced out by people in the party who have had enough of her ego.

When 15 and 25 undeclared super delegates a day start going to Obama and 6 to 10 of her declared supers a day switch to Obama, the public at large will see she is being repudiated by her entire party.

It will mean the end of any kind of influence in the party for Hillary.

We won't have to worry about her running for President of the Senate or of a future run for POTUS.

If a decent primary candidate emerges she might even lose her next NY Senate primary.

It will be bad for Hill, but very good for the party as a whole. She can become a corporate lobbyist and work to try to defeat single payer.

[Kittycat]

4. Only change I have will be TX - I say 53-47 for Obama

[Yael]

5. Unsure about Ohio. Obama takes Vermont and possibly RI

But Texas will be an Obama rout.

Edit to add Texas prediction for Obama (I left out a candidate when I said it would be a rout).

[loveangelc]

15. for who?

[Yael]

18. Sorry -- Obama

[loveangelc]

26. are you just being optimistic? Im worried about both states..

[Yael]

27. Yes -- I am being optimistic

Right now, he is the underdog and that is the last polling data I want to see before the results come out. :D

[Gore1FL]

30. It will likley be a delegate rout for Obama in TX

no matter the primary outcome. He could lose by a few points and still lead in TX delegates, because he is stronger in areas with more delegates.

[MindMatter]

32. Exactly. I don't think most people are getting this.

A 4% popular vote win by Obama could easily be a +20 in delegates because of the non-uniform distribution of delegates.

And unless Clinton succeeds at shenanigans, Obama should get a +15 from the caucuses.

[loveangelc]

36. I want him to win the state though :/

[blonndee]

17. For Obama or Clinton?

I'm starting to have major doubts about Texas.

[Yael]

19. Obama.

I will edit my posts.

Major doubt is a GOOD thing. Always better to be on the underdog side.

[skipos]

6. My only prediction is that Hillary Inc will claim it is a victory no matter what

and any state they lose will be irrelevant because
blacks
youth
party activists
independents
republicans
caucuses
red states
small states
gave Obama his victory and that doesn't count.

[FrenchieCat]

11. I'm thinking that Hillary and Bill should move to Tonga.

That's what I'm thinking!

[JohnnyLib2]

8. I agree with Sen. ____ oops, with you, in general.

And think the battle will rage on beyond Tuesday's results.

[TAWS]

9. Delegate Predictions

I have

Rhode Island - +2 delegates for Clinton
Vermont - +6 delegates for Obama
Texas - +10 delegates for Obama
Ohio - +4 delegates for Clinton

Net Result: +10 delegates for Obama

[VolcanoJen]

10. I predict I'll be half in the bag by the time Ohio results are final.

:toast:

[adoraz]

13. sounds extremely likely...

I'd be happy with it. I would really like Texas (and Ohio close).

[lapfog_1]

14. Pretty close to my estimation...

Ohio might be a bit closer, say 52 - 48
Texas might be bit bigger, say 53 - 47

but the delegate counts will be nearly the same for both, maybe Obama +4 because of the Texas caucus rules and the districts that get more delegates.

RI and Vermont are spot on... which should give Obama another 2

So for the night, Obama +6

[MindMatter]

29. It will be Obama at least +20 in delegates in TX

Probably +30 or more. He will clean up on the caucuses. That will be a +15 right there. And he should get a +15 or a +20 from the ballots because the representation is non-uniform. The districts that get "more than their share" are strong for Obama.

[Dbdmjs1022]

16. I'm thinking...

Hillary takes RI (54-46)

Obama takes VT (62-38), OH (51-49), TX (53-47)

[Colobo]

22. I hope you're right.

[jlake]

20. Hillry: Ohio by 8. Texas by 4 & RI by 16. Obama: VT by 24

[DrFunkenstein]

21. Your Prediction is Fairly Close to Mine

I was thinking Ohio might be 52% to 48%, but otherwise the same.

[Zachstar]

23. Clinton will win far less than the 100 net delegate increase to warrant a continued run.

And will exit the race that night.

OR

She will not exit that night leading to the supers and the other bigs going to Obama followed EITHER by her exiting OR she runs a bankrupt (morally and funds) race for another week or 2 before everyone just moves on and tries to get the GE process started and destroys what is left of her political future by the convention.

[dansolo]

39. I don't think Clinton will get any net delegate gain

[angelstower]

28. Obama inTx. and Ohio

Obama wins by 10% in tx, 6% in OH and 4% in RI.

[adoraz]

37. as much as I'd love for that to happen...

I would be pretty shocked if it actually did happen. I think he will only win 1 of those (you listed).

[JVS]

31. Hillary will not do well enough to avoid elimination

Hopefully she'll realize this and quit.

[adoraz]

35. ok heres mine, hope I am not overestimating Obama

but he always seems to do better than the expectations so...


Texas: Obama plus 4%
Ohio: Clinton plus 2%
Rhode Island: Clinton plus 8%
Vermont: Obama plus 30%

Overall: Obama gets about 5 more delegates for the day.

[MadBadger]

38. I would have agreed with you a week ago, not now. I think OH will be closer

Ohio: Hillary wins Ohio (51-49) and RI(52-48)
Obama wins TX (52-47) and VT (70-29)

[quantass]

40. O/C --> TX:51/49 OH:51/49 RI:45/55 VT:64/36

[meow mix]

41. every state will go 60 percent for Obama. Hillary:Godess of Peace, will vow to fight on.

thats mine..

[malik flavors]

42. I'll say:

Clinton: OH +9, RI +17
Obama: VT +18

Texas = Toss up

[NDambi]

43. Hillary won't and can't catch up..that's the prediction. She's going down.

[grantcart]

44. pain

[Colobo]

45. Kick.

[book_worm]

46. Obama by 7 in Texas, Hillary by 5 in Ohio, VT in a landslide for Obama

RI narrower win for Hillary.

[Colobo]

47. I hope you're right!

[TheDoorbellRang]

48. The eternal optimist here

TX 60-40% for Obama
OH 51-49% for Obama
RI 49-51% for Clinton
VT 65-35% for Obama

If one of us is right, do we get that pony? :D