Suffolk University Poll (3/1-3/2): Clinton (52) Obama (40)

[malik flavors]

Couldn't tell you much about this poll. Seems to be a pretty big difference in comparison to most other polls, but here it is, for what it's worth.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/FinalOHIOMarginalsMarch22008.html

[quantass]

1. Check out Suffolk's Poll record -- Most results were completely wrong.

This is why you need to use multiple results from other sources and look for a pattern...this University's record has been weak over this election...google them up

[sandnsea]

2. 16% are under 45

That pretty much sums up that poll.

[NJSecularist]

13. 40-45 is the average

It was 44% below 45 in New Hampshire. 40% in South Carolina. 40% in California. You get my point.

Also, they only sampled 8% African Americans, when turnout is expected to be doubled that.

[NJSecularist]

15. Hell, even Michigan, an uncontested primary, got 43%

I think Michigan is the best comparison for what will happen in Ohio, although those in Ohio will surely object to that. :)

[Johnny__Motown]

21. Maybe northern Ohio, southern Ohio is almost a southern state.The state is nothing if not diverse

[ORDem]

17. Polls are weighted by categories, so this is not a valid argument

against their methodology. You can't get a perfect sampling of all age groups, so you weight the results accordingly. Anyway, it does look like an outlier in any case. There's no dynamic in the last couple of days that would account for such a large swing.

:dem:

[Alhena]

3. 38% of those polled were over 65 - did they call a retirement home?

an additional 25% were 56-65. So 63% of their poll was over age 56- great poll, guys.

[adoraz]

5. LOL!

[DUyellow]

4. check this out...

Q11. Of the following categories, which comes closest to your age?
N= 400 100%
18-25 .......................................... 1 ( 1/305) 6 2%
26-35 .......................................... 2 16 4%
36-45 .......................................... 3 40 10%
46-55 .......................................... 4 86 22%
56-65 .......................................... 5 98 25%
Over 65 ........................................ 6 152 38%
Refused (DO NOT READ) .......................... 7 2 1%

[MadBadger]

6. 18-45 is 16%? Bull fuckin shit

[skipos]

7. And what would be a realistic estimate of the breakdown of the ages that will turn out to vote?

I have never really looked at the numbers.

[skipos]

12. I'll answer my own question. In Wisconsin it was

18-34 = 16%
34-44 = 22%
45-59 = 34%
60+ = 29%

[Drunken Irishman]

14. Well going by the 2004 primary, those numbers are way off.

18-29 (9%)
30-44 (23%)
45-64 (46%)
65 and Older (22%)

18-64 (78%)
65 and Older (22%)

[thewiseguy]

8. wow what a shitty poll

Why would they even publish this poll on RCP?

[Renew Deal]

9. They have severely undersampled Independents

Indies were 24% in 2004. This poll says 9%. That's wrong.

[Renew Deal]

10. And blacks

14% in 2004, 8% in this poll.

[MadBadger]

11. They severely underpolled 18-45, which in every other state is from 30-45 percent of the vote

[NJSecularist]

16. All you need to know about Suffolk is this poll from Massachusetts

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/02/tossup_between.html

[shiestyelbow]

18. I'm beginning to worry about Ohio

Hopefully he comes through in Texas.

[MadBadger]

19. Dont worry about Ohio. He may lose, but this poll is worthless

[adoraz]

20. this poll really means nothing

simply put, they way over sampled the group heavily favoring Clinton and way under sampled the group heavily supporting Obama. This would basically be like way over sampling whites and way under sampling blacks in a deep south state.

[milkyway]

22. Don't. Obama will net a lot more delegates in Vermont than Hillary will in Ohio. Even if Hillary

wins a close popular vote in Ohio, she might win fewer delegates than Barack. Even a win of 8% will not net here more than about 5 delegates.