This TWO WEEKS has been killing me....Who will win?

[PretzelWarrior]

I take it Hillary is the one who has benefited the most from such a long stretch between primaries. Yes, Obama has his ground game and a chance to overcome people's unfamiliarity with him, but Clinton has had a lot of time to try bringing the corporate media to heel and force them into covering things to make her look better.

I am for Obama. I just don't want to imagine a devisive ugly mess of a general election with Hillary in. Even if she does what we want and get a Dem in the White House.....it will be a corporatist hawkish Dem in the White House and it will be at least 4 more years of MORE drama and sick political culture.

I just hope and pray Obama has been able to convince a few more people in Texas and Ohio. My guess is still that he narrowly beats her in Texas and she wins by a slim margin in Ohio. If that happens, I think it becomes likely MANY more party elders will be making calls to get her to step aside.

If she somehow narrowly wins BOTH Texas and Ohio I think we are in for a tough fight stretching beyond Pennsylvania. That will be just too much as McCain will get tanned, rested, and ready and be able to frame a great attack argument while Hillary and Obama continue to wage war.

TUESDAY CANNOT GET HERE FAST ENOUGH.

[babylonsister]

1. No.

Obama has benefited because he's been able to bring it to the people. I am not predicting anything, but I'm hopeful.

[PretzelWarrior]

2. I'm noping you're right. I can't stand the number of "undecided"s..

I understand them, I guess. If there are people out there not very in tune to what's happening day by day in politics, they could find it hard to differentiate and think voting for either Dem would be fine.

But to have 9 or so percent of people in Texas and Ohio who still don't know who they'll vote for just days ahead???

WOW.

[babylonsister]

5. That could happen, but judging from the early voters,

that still could happen. Ugh. My own husband said tonight, just hit the switch for Dems. But that won't work when there are choices. I hope that's not an option. I'll find out Tuesday.
It shouldn't be because there are other races in TX that have more than one Dem in contention. :shrug:

But then there's my precinct 22, formerly Tom DeLay's. The Dem voted in last year, Nick Lampson, is running against "10" rethugs. :scared:

[lapfog_1]

3. That's not the correct question

It really doesn't matter who "wins" in any of the remaining contests.

What matters is delegates. There are no "winner takes all" contests so it matters about how many and what the gap is.

Why does this matter? If, after Puerto Rico, Obama has more pledged delegates, it will be difficult for the party (via Super delegates) to overturn the will of the people. Same is true for Hillary, if she has more pledged delegates (not including MI and FL) then she will likely win the nomination.

Right now, Obama has about a 150 to 160 pledged delegate lead. Hillary needs to close this to at least under 30 by the convention if she is even to have a shot at it.

So she needs to win on Tuesday, and win big, and then keep on winning big to overcome the delegate gap.

For Obama, this round he is looking for a "knock out" (winning big would be it, winning more delegates than Hillary on Tuesday, even if only a few, should be it as well).

What the spin folks have done is set up this that IF Obama doesn't "knock out" Hillary on Tuesday, it's a "win" for Hillary (even if the delegate gap remains essentially unchanged).

And yet it isn't. What it means is that there are now very few contests left where Hillary would need to win by huge margins, all just to close the gap.

I am hoping for the knockout. I'm tired of the negative attacks from her campaign and from Hillary herself. I'm tired of the constant nattering nabobs of negativism here on DU. The ones that tell me (and all Obama supporters) that we are members of some mysterious cult, that we are not real Democrats, etc.

But I am not counting on it. When the dust clears on Wednesday, the delegate math is all that matters, and if Hillary hasn't closed to within 100 delegates (that's a 50 delegate pickup on Tuesday), then she should bow out. Both of those are unlikely.

Anyway, I share your desire for Tuesday to be here AND be over!

[PretzelWarrior]

4. yes. I meant narrowly win the delegate margin race in each state

my point is...if Hillary net ADDS delegates inTexas and Ohio and RI and loses quite a few delegate margin in Vermont, I think she will still stay in--EVEN if she loses ground when counting delegates won in all four contests.

This is a perception game a little bit....YES OBAMA is in the driver's seat, but it is not a good idea to let her hang around. We NEED a knockout punch to move forward and do some good in uniting as Democrats.

[ORDem]

6. I don't know how you figure Hillary benefited from the stretch, given that

she was in the lead by double digits in TX and OH 2 weeks ago and both those leads have evaporated.

Anyway, stop worrying. Hillary will not get a net gain in delegates, leaving Obama with a secure lead and fewer states left to vote. Just keeps getting better and better!

:dem:

[PretzelWarrior]

7. I'm hoping so. I believe Oregon would go 70% to Obama.

but that's just the feeling I get on the streets of Portland. Not sure how statewide Dems feel.

[emilyg]

8. Relax

No matter who wins - our lives will go on.