Reuters/Cspan/Zogby Shocker: Obama pulls ahead in Ohio

[Tropics_Dude83]

Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle Poll: Too Close To Call! Obama Barely Overtakes Clinton in Ohio and Retains Small Edge in Texas
Republican McCain remains well ahead of Huckabee, but still faces some intra-party opposition
UTICA, New York – The Democratic Party presidential primaries in Texas and Ohio remain too close to call between Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois, with momentum sloshing back and forth, a new Zogby International poll for Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle two-day telephone tracking poll shows. As voters in these two big states prepare to wrap up their voting tomorrow, neither candidate has been able to break away from the other.

The two delegate-rich states with elections on Tuesday are among the last of the big states left in the primary election season, and both candidates stand to split the delegates under the partys proportional delegate apportionment scheme.

Texas - Democrats
2-29/3-2
2-28/3-1
2-27/29
2-26/28

Clinton
44%
43%
43%
42%

Obama
47%
47%
45%
48%

Gravel
2%
1%
<1%
<1%

Someone else
1%
2%
3%
3%

Not sure
6%
7%
8%
7%


The telephone surveys also show Republican front-runner John McCain, the senator from Arizona, moving two steps closer to sealing the GOP nomination, as he continues to enjoy a sizable lead over closest challenger Mike Huckabee of Arkansas.

Ohio - Democrats
2-29/3-2
2-28/3-1
2-27/29
2-26/28

Clinton
45%
47%
45%
44%

Obama
47%
46%
45%
42%

Gravel
1%
1%
1%
1%

Someone else
2%
1%
3%
5%

Not sure
6%
5%
6%
9%


In the Democratic race in Texas, Clinton and Obama saw stability set in among the key demographic groups. Obama leads among men, and the two are essentially tied among women. Clinton continues to enjoy a sizable lead among Hispanic voters, but Obama has made gains in the last day among white voters, where the two are now tied.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

1. Am I the only one who heard this in a horse-racing announcer's voice?

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

12. Yes.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

13. And Obama will win by a nose.

[bklyncowgirl]

38. ...AND DOWN THE STRETCH THEY COME!

First Lady is in front but Chicago Kid is flying up on the outside.

Chigago Kid draws even running like a smooth flowing machine but First Lady is not giving up.

They're head and head, neck and neck pounding down the stretch nose to nose, eyeball to eyeball!

Chicago Kid gets a nose in front.

First Lady is digging in hard.

One furlong to go AND....

To be finished Tuesday night.

[AtomicKitten]

2. The polls are all over the place.

Hey it's Ohio. It was never going to be more than a crapshoot. We have no evidence to believe it will go down any different than 2004. I remain absolutely amazed that virtually nothing has been done about election fraud.

[Zhade]

34. I hear that.

It's almost funny, in a tragic way.

[Independent-Voter]

43. It's Ohio, no need to be surprised by their incompetence.

The one's that are left there are wondering why people are leaving that damn state in droves.

[Alter Ego]

45. Why do I see an absolute shitfest in Ohio's future?

I have a feeling that the contest there will not be decided until Wednesday.

[adoraz]

3. HERE IT COMES........

The flame war is going to be insane Tuesday, and now Hillary supporters really need to be worried.

edit: I realize it is just 1 poll, but it is the newest poll and for Hillary supporters, 1 poll too many.

[MadBadger]

4. I actually expected him to take the lead in Zogby's Poll yesterday

[thewiseguy]

5. YESSSSSSS!

You would have thought Ohio was safe. This is just going to make it that much more difficult for the Clinton camp. I hope Obama campaigns some more in Ohio tomorrow morning.

[malik flavors]

6. wow, i think this is the first poll to ever show Obama in the lead in Ohio.

I still think Hillary's going to win it, but this was interesting to see.

[grantcart]

7. There is one shocker in Ohio

As close as the election is Ohio Democrats think that Obama is going to be the nominee - even Hillary's supporters
http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/AB/20080302/NEWS01/303020032

But there's one undeniable fact among Democrats: They overwhelmingly think that Obama will win the November election, regardless of whom they support in the primary. Even nearly a third of Clinton supporters in the poll expect Obama to be the next president.

One of them is Diana Brenner, a 54-year-old psychologist from Columbus, who said she likes Clinton's experience and the way she can specifically explain her positions on health care and the economy.


snip
Political analyst Michael Barone, writing in his blog at www.usnews.com earlier this week, took a Washington Post-ABC Poll showing Clinton with a seven-point lead in Ohio and tried to figure out what that would mean in terms of the delegate breakdown. He concluded that, if Clinton won Ohio by seven percentage points, she’d probably end up with only nine more delegates here than Obama – not enough to cut significantly into Obama’s lead in the delegate count.

Green, though, said that while a Clinton win by a small margin might not do her much good in the race for delegates, it could make it possible for her to carry on her struggling campaign.

[Robbins]

19. Poll

This Is In Texas Inline with other polls.I think with the way the primarys have gone Obama will take Texas.The question Is by how much.With Ohio It has been going In Obama's direction with him earing Hillary's lead.This suggests Obama could narrowly take Ohio and end this race.While Zogby
was so wrong with California he has been right In other states.Zogby was the one that had New Hampshsere the closest.Was very right with Iowa,and Nevada.And was about the only polling that had Obama winning Missouri,and was right on New Jersey(Obama keep Hillary's victory In Single digets)
so while I am not willing to call Ohio yet for Obama.He does have a chance to win the popular vote.
And remember Obama has the reverse bradley effect getting more votes than the polls suggest.

[grantcart]

22. But it is all irrelevent

She had to make up a huge number of delegates and that will not happen. she is down 20 points in PA. It is a charade and the only reason that they are keeping it going is to continue to raise money for their warchest in the future.

[Jawja]

40. If Obama wins Texas, and

I believe he will and if he wins Ohio, then it really is the END for the Clinton campaign. However, if he wins Texas and SHE wins Ohio by even a small margin, she will see that as a reason to fight on.

The truth of the matter is, if Obama wins ONE - either Ohio or Texas, it's over for Clinton. But the Clinton camp is trying to spin it as a defeat for Obama if he doesn't win all four.

Would be great to see him pull out both on Tuesday and then we can end this ruthless campaign once and for all.

[saltpoint]

36. Good insight.

[Common Sense Party]

8. Mike Gravel DOUBLED his support!

ROCK ON, GRAVEL!!!

[anigbrowl]

20. Yes, it's time for the other candidates to face reality and quit.

I have this new theory that Gravel is just trying to outlast Clinton in some obscure personal vendetta.

[sandnsea]

9. She can't do well if they're tied with women

She's going to get destroyed in TX and that's all that matters. Even if she wins OH, it won't be by enough to matter.

[DUyellow]

23. something made me laugh. GOBAMA

[NJSecularist]

10. So much for Obama's polls collapsing, Tropics..

;)

What did I tell you? :)

These one day tracking polls are notoriously unreliable. I'd like to see what they say tommorow.

[Tropics_Dude83]

14. LOL

Yes no jumping off of the bridge quite yet for me:)

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

11. Here's the link that goes with the Zogby poll

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1460

[George_Bonanza]

15. Polls mean nothing

[bluestateguy]

16. It's one poll among many

And some little Hillary supporter will be back within minutes to shop a poll showing the exact opposite.

I'd like for the US to be one of the countries that bans polling the week before an election. Polls are not speech.

[thewiseguy]

17. Wintery weather in Ohio on Tuesday

That would be an advantage for Obama I assume? Given the candidate with more enthusiastic supporters benefits?

[Johnny__Motown]

31. That and the assumption older people tend to go out less in that type of weather

[Radical Activist]

18. Not much of a surprise if you've been paying attention.

Obama always climbs in the polls over time. He has also been finishing ahead of them.

[Tropics_Dude83]

21. This poll explains why Obama went to OH

It was rumored that he would only go to OH if his internals had him up or very very very close.

[dkf]

24. Where did you hear this?

Interesting.

[Tropics_Dude83]

25. Buckeye State blog and also...

His original schedule was to be in TX for the remainder of the 3/4 campaign apparently.

[loveangelc]

27. BOOOOO! He should have been in TX anyway. TX is more critical than OH imo.

oh well we'll see....

[MadBadger]

30. Both are equally as important. Just win one.

[democrattotheend]

42. No way, OH is more important

If he loses Ohio by more than a few points, it will raise questions about whether he can carry it in the general. Losing big in Ohio would undermine his electability argument. He doesn't have to win (and I don't expect him to - Zogby polls have tended to be overly optimistic for Obama), but he has to keep it close.

[Drunken Irishman]

26. Oh man, I don't care if he wins by .1%, I'll take it!

[adoraz]

29. lol I'd take those margins in all 4 states

[loveangelc]

28. watch for them to be "tied" tomorrow in TX so that zogby can claim there was a swing

in support for one or the other that he only caught after his last night of polling...

[FrenchieCat]

37. Wouldn't be suprised......

I'm starting to believe they make the shit up as they go.

[quantass]

32. Exciting stuff

[BringBigDogBack]

33. outstanding.

I cannot wait for Tuesday. :thumbsup:

[babylonsister]

35. Thank you! Bound to annoy some people, but not moi! GOBAMA! nt

[Avalux]

39. This is good news....

....Obama has been outperforming in polls thanks to young voters and undecideds. After listening to the news shows this morning, I hope we can put this thing to rest tomorrow. It's giving me an ulcer. :hi:

[democrattotheend]

41. I don't trust Zogby

They had Obama up 13 in California. The trend is encouraging but until another pollster (preferably SurveyUSA) shows him ahead I'm not getting my hopes up. I think Ohio will be close, but I still think she has the edge.

[Vinca]

44. Please, please, please let Obama win Texas and Ohio so this

will be over. I know he doesn't have to win to stay ahead in delegates, but we've got to start going after Grandpa McBush.

[EmilyAnne]

46. I can hardly stand it! Tuesday can't come soon enough. n/t

[workinclasszero]

47. Lookin good for Obama!

But please don't get confident at all! If you live in Ohio, Texas, RI, or Vermont..GOTV!!:bounce:

Bring video cameras tomorrow to the Texas caucuses to document any Hillbot attempts at controlling the outcome as well.

Help people get to the polls if possible. GOBAMA!!!!:applause: