OK, I'm ready to predict: TX for Obama

[cali]

After everything I've read and heard, and the fact that the Obama campaign has publically said that they're confident about TX, I'm predicting Obama takes more pledged delegates and wins the popular vote. In areas that favor him, a vote is worth twice as much as a vote from areas that favor her.

I think Hillary will edge out Obama in OH by 5 pts or so.

In RI, I predict an upset. Obama by 3.

In VT, which oddly could be important, Obama will win by 28, and due to the vagaries of the Vermont delegate distribution rules, pick up 10 of the 15 pledged delegates.


And then what? Who the hell knows whether Hillary will try and stick it out or not.

[Dawgs]

1. I agree with Texas and VT. I disagree that she will lose RI. I think she wins, but not by much.

I also disagree about Ohio. I do think she will win, and I think it will be more like 8-12 points.

[cali]

2. Why do you think she'll win OH by so much?

He has an excellent ground game there, and most of the polls show him within 4 pts or so.

[Dawgs]

16. No reason really. It's just a gut feeling I have about Ohio.

It feels a lot like California and Massachusetts did before their primaries.

[leftofcool]

3. The problem is

Texas is a red state. This does not help Obama for the GE.

Left of Cool

[cali]

4. actually, that completely misses the point.

Everyone is aware that TX is a red state, but their primary is still a very big deal. And that's where we are now. And RI and VT are very blue states. OH is a purple state. The point right now is to win the nomination. After that we can address winning the general.

[leftofcool]

14. Texas is a moot point

Neither Dem candidate can take Texas in the GE. And that is my point.

[cali]

15. It's NOT a moot point in the primary. And that is where we're at

This is not the general election. It's the primary. And that is the only thing that counts at the moment.

[EmilyAnne]

5. So Texas doesn't matter? n/t

[book_worm]

25. Bill Clinton said that Hillary had to win both Ohio and Texas.

[democrattotheend]

6. I don't think so

I was feeling good about Texas until I read this:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/03/us/politics/03texas.html

It looks like the Clinton people have the better ground game in TX, due to support from state party officials and state/local politicians, particularly in the Latino community.

[psychopomp]

10. The offices may be small and makeshift

...but the Obama campaigners had Samuel Jackson on their side!

It will be a tough race to the finish with lots of volunteer workers active on both sides. That being the case, it looks like democracy wins!

Off-topic, but I just love the hat on that lady in the photo!

[cali]

11. I don't know why that article should have convinced you that Obama

is at a disadvantage. In any case, his ground game is far more established in TX than hers.

[Kittycat]

13. Obama has at least 100K volunteers on the ground in TX to her 41K.

He has 20 offices to her 18.

[zarath]

19. In Austin, Obama's operation is much more visible

Here in far north Austin (just south of Round Rock), Obama's ground operation is far more visible.

I've gotten about 4 phone calls for Obama, 0 for Clinton. I've got 2 visits from obama canvassers on the ground, none for clinton. I've seen many many ads for Obama on TV and only a handful for Clinton.

[WolverineDG]

28. um, live from south texas

:spray: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

what ground game?

No office, no access to voting records, no block walking, no in person, f2f anything, robocalls & mailers. That's it.

dg

[K Gardner]

7. Obama takes TX, RI and VT. Hillary may edge him out in Ohio. Certainly not

enough to keep gas in her tank of desperation.

The party will insist she pull over to the side of the road.

[Arugula Latte]

23. We might have to shoot out her tires

She'll be like an escaped 7-11 robber weaving in and out of traffic on the LA freeway

[Dogmudgeon]

26. So many shooting metaphors!

And all of them are AIMED at Hillary.

--p!
Remember 1968? Well, it ain't over yet!
(http://berurevue.us/index.cfm">Bob Beru, ``Paranoia'', 1985)

[Arugula Latte]

27. I was just riffing off of the "pull over to the side of the road" metaphor

[loveangelc]

8. they said they are confident about texas?

howard wolfson is on saying he's extremely confident they will be successful in tx and oh and will be successful tuesday.

[NJSecularist]

9. I'm not ready to predict anything

Hillary and Bill are making a stand in East Texas today.

That is the swing region of Texas.

It's really too close to call, and the winner of the state will be the campaign that is most proficient at GOTV.

[yourguide]

12. My money is on

Obama TX by 8 points, OH by 3 points, VT vermont by 25 points

HRC RI by 9 points

[TwilightGardener]

17. Now all of RW radio is calling on Repubs to vote Hillary to keep the Dem race going--

so, we'll see how much people actually listen--Laura Ingraham and Rush are now spending 90% of their time bashing Obama--Ingraham is spending about a half-hour on Rezko today. I sincerely hope there's enough Obama voters to cancel this shit out.

[bdamomma]

18. I hope RI goes for Obama

there are many undecideds out there to determine who will win.

[Name removed]

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[Name removed]

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[rox63]

22. Here are my predictions

Obama takes TX by 8%, and VT by 25%. Clinton takes OH by 2% and RI by 9%. Overall, Obama takes more delegates than Clinton.

[thevoiceofreason]

24. I think we'll do fine in Houston, cali

The obama team is ready. Tired, but ready.

[Forkboy]

29. What's your thinking on R.I. and why he'll pull an upset?

I have my doubts on that one.