If Hillary Decides To "Keep Fighting" After Tuesday...

[JimGinPA]

How many of these contests can she realistically win?

March
9
Wyoming
11
Mississippi

April
22
Pennsylvania

May
3
Guam
6
Indiana
North Carolina
13
Nebraska
West Virginia
20
Kentucky
Oregon

June
3
Montana
South Dakota
7
Puerto Rico

[Skinner]

1. Hard to say. My best guess:

Pennsylvania
West Virginia
Kentucky
Puerto Rico

Not saying she would win. Just saying that she could.

[SteppingRazor]

14. Agreed -- especially PA and KY.

Kentucky and Pennsylvania both have closed primaries, and both have large populations of the voting blocs that have tended to go Hillary in the past.

[K Gardner]

20. Obama's camp agrees with your projections! (post 19)

[harun]

27. I think if the PA election were today Hillary would take it, however

I have received a number of notices from the Obama camp on all the groups they are organizing here. I think by the time we vote in PA (April, 22nd) Obama will have had enough time to do in PA what he has done in the other states, and that is win it.

[saltpoint]

2. Don't know, but likely not enough for a first-ballot victory in Denver

and likely not enough to change the perception that her time has passed.

[gateley]

3. I don't know,

but I bet the MSM is loving this and would like to see her take it to the convention.

I'm guessing money will have a factor in how long she decides to continue. On the other hand, she MIGHT begin to turn things around tomorrow - we've seen such strange "unthinkable" things throughout this campaign -- Dems and Reps.

What do you think?

[Independent-Voter]

4. Kentucky, Indiana, and Puerto Rico at best. She wouldn't win for 1.5 months

There's no way in hell she can run her campaign for that long on only 3-4 wins. It just ain't going to happen. At this point, she's just milking older feminist's money for her warchest. She'll need it for that next Senate run, because you damn well know that seat is getting warm.

[Renew Deal]

8. Obama was polling like 20 points ahead in Indiana

A couple weeks ago.

[Independent-Voter]

10. Scratch that one then - my bad!

[JimGinPA]

5. Latest Poll In PA Has Hillary Up By 4 Points...

With 7 weeks to go, by which time she will have lost MS & WY. I think the super delegates are going to keep moving to Obama also.

[RoadRage]

6. FYI: Nebraska on May 13th doesn't count...

We had a Caucus on Feb. 9th that Obama already won handidly... so, similar to Washington, people can cast votes for whomever they want - but they will not count.

This is because the state sets the primary schedule (run by republicans). They did not want to change the state law that sets May for our primary date. The Nebraska Democratic Party elected to have a caucus for the first time ever, and move it up to February to be "relevant", because this can be done without Republican approval or a law being changed.

So - even though Obama will likely win the primary here, it won't give him any more delegates.

[havocmom]

7. Don't think she will do well in Montana. Pretty funny if she has to actually come here.

She wrote off the heartland long ago. People don't like being written off. She may just see the error of her strategy of dissing the rural states when it gets down to needing every little delegate. Suddenly the heartland (and Dr. Dean's 50 state strategy) matters and HRC's campaign advisers may well have screwed the pooch by maintaining the attitude that only the coasts matter.

Gonna laugh my ass off if she is forced to actually come to Montana and beg for our few delegates. May drive into town to see her if she comes. I'll bring a nice lunch of crow for her. If you think she's been in a foul humor recently.... ;)

[ChairmanAgnostic]

9. GUAM - the new firewall.

[mcctatas]

12. Damn...

beat me to it :toast:

[Renew Deal]

11. If things go the way they are polling now, Hillary would need to win 63% of delegates after 3/4

And that assumes a small win for Hillary in Ohio 52-48 and a small win for Obama in Texas 51-49. Then if you include Wyoming and MS, Hillary would need to win 65% of remaining delegates.

Let's say Hillary wins Pennsylvania 55-45, she would need to win 69% of remaining delegates. It looks really bad for Hillary if Obama keeps it close this week.

[totodeinhere]

13. Obama has been on such a roll...

that I don't see why he can't continue and sweep almost every one of the remaining contests. The possible exception might be Puerto Rico but they don't have enough delegates to really make any difference.

[Zachstar]

15. I dont want to think about it.

If she stays in EVERYTHING changes and I may give this a rest for a few weeks because any more of this shit and we will likely have a Republican president going into the 2010s.

[greguganus]

16. Don't see her winning North Carolina. Nothing but Obama stickers and signs here. n/t

[MethuenProgressive]

17. If she does well enough to stay in after Tuesday? Then she can keep winning.

The primaries are milestones, the race is fluid. If she does *great* tomorrow then it might show that the voters are snapping out of the trance. Then it's a ball game again.

[K Gardner]

18. Here's a very interesting scenario that shows her "drop out" date March 12

Unless she, like Huckabee, intends on "majoring in miracles," the mathematical reality has to become a factor at some point, doesn't it? Without large delegate margins in the big states on Tuesday, there is simply no realistic way she can get anywhere near Obama's pledged-delegate total by the end of this thing, barring a total sea change in the dynamics of the race (e.g., Mississippi and North Carolina suddenly becoming Clinton country). That's going to become the storyline eventually, whether on Wednesday or Thursday or Friday.

Also, let's not forget that the two races immediately after Tuesday are the Wyoming caucuses (March 8) and the Mississippi primary (March 11). Neither of those are Clinton-friendly at all. So even if she manages to successfully delay the media's recognition of a March 4 failure, the most likely result is simply a slow bleed -- much like what happened after Super Tuesday, actually, when the media slowly woke up to Hillary's dire straights, helped along by one loss after another in the week that followed. Anyway, I could see the post-Teaxs/Ohio news cycles going something like this:

TUESDAY NIGHT - Inconclusive results, but clearly not a Hillary sweep on her "firewall" day.
WEDNESDAY - Texas caucuses still in doubt, but it looks likely Obama will maintain or increase his delegate lead overall. Rumblings of possible mass superdelegate movement to Obama begin.
THURSDAY - It's now increasingly clear that Obama's Tuesday performance boosted his delegate lead. A bunch of superdelegates join his side.
FRIDAY - More superdelegates and other endorsements for Obama. Pressure mounts on Hillary to bow out. She vows to fight on. MSM analysts increasingly roll their eyes at this.
SATURDAY, MARCH 8 - Obama wins by a landslide in the Wyoming cacuses.
SUNDAY, MARCH 9 - Updated delegate count shows nomination increasingly out of reach for Hillary; primary in Obama-friendly Mississippi looms. Media tone now unabashedly that of a coronation.
MONDAY, MARCH 10 - Last-ditch flailing by Clinton camp, amid more defections and a sense of impending doom.
TUESDAY, MARCH 11 - Obama rolls in Mississippi, gives what looks for all the world like the nominee-presumptive's "I just clinched victory" speech. MSM on-air analysts now openly saying Hillary cannot win, treating her basically like Huckabee.
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 12 - Hillary finally drops out.

http://blog.brendanloy.com/2008/03/hillarys-plan-t.html

[Colobo]

21. I hate to think she'll make us wait another week.

[Tom Rinaldo]

22. If Clinton does well Tuesday, all eyes move to PA

For example, if Clinton wins the popular vote in Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island, there is nothing about the Wyoming Caucus or Mississippi Primary results that could stop the contest before PA. No one would be "tricked" into thinking that Obama had regained his momentum in a mountain state caucus or a deep south primary - those have been the types of contests that Obama has always done very well in. They are like Rhode Island is for Hillary - where it is presumed she can do well. Rhode Island only becomes real news if Hillary loses it, and Wyoming and Mississippi only become real news if Obama loses one or both of them.

Everyone understands that Texas Ohio and Pennsylvania are more important States to win then Vermont, Rhode Island, Wyoming and Mississippi.

If Hillary does well on Tuesday, after losing that string of contests in February, it just underscores that this has become a see saw type of race. Two minor states coming in for Obama that he was long strongly favored in prior to that PA vote won't change that perception. Clinton would then need to win PA, and following that do better than expected in some subsequent contests like North Carolina or Oregon while winning the places like West Virginia and Puerto Rico where she is expected to do well.

[K Gardner]

19. Here are Obama Camp Predictions for Remaining States..

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=ayraBSSaVF_w&refer=home

Obama's Projections

The Obama campaign's projection assumes Clinton will win Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico. It shows Obama winning more states, including Wyoming, Mississippi, North Carolina, Indiana, Oregon, Montana and South Dakota.

Under that scenario, he would get slightly more delegates than Clinton, letting him build his lead in pledged convention votes and giving him an opportunity to win over more of the 795 superdelegates, only about half of whom have publicly taken sides. Still, it shows neither candidate with the 2,025 total delegates needed to win the nomination.

Democratic political strategists not associated with either campaign, independent experts and even some Clinton supporters concur in that outlook.

[JimGinPA]

23. I Think There Will Be An Even Split Of Delegates In PA...

How does that help her?

[helderheid]

26. what this says to me is that there is no way Clinton will drop out.

[TexasObserver]

24. Her madness gets worse the closer to finality she comes.

Thankfully, the end is near.

[backscatter712]

25. If Hillary stays in, we could lose in November.

I don't think the Democratic party can take another two months of acrimonious pissing contests while McCain can position himself for November at his leisure.

We can't take it. There will be so much resentment that any attempt at that point to unify the party will be superficial at best, and we'll have a lackluster November campaign. We need to wrap these primaries up, NOW, so we can focus on November. Anything else is self-sabotaging.

She'll say anything to win, and will do anything to win, including sabotaging the Democratic party just so she can run in 2012. She'll let a couple more justices in the Supreme Court be replaced by right wing wackos just so she can have another shot. She'll let this country go through four more years of war, four more years of shitty or non-existant health care just so she can run in 2012.

Hillary Clinton needs to bow out. Now. For the good of the party. You want a Democrat in the White House or not?