My predictions for tomorrow

[alcibiades_mystery]

Ohio: Clinton wins by 8-10%
Texas: Clinton wins by 4%
Rhode Island: Clinton wins by 10-15%
Vermont: Obama wins by 10-12%

Thoughts?

[Teaser]

1. Right except for Texas

Obama squeaks by with a 1 point victory.

[leftofcool]

2. Close

Excpet I don't think she will will RI by quite that much....8% maybe?

[easy_b94]

3. Look

Ohio: Clinton wins by 4%
Texas: Obama wins by 4%
Rhode Island: Clinton wins by 3-6% (the undecided votemay break to Obama)
Vermont: Obama wins by 10-12%

[Flabbergasted]

12. I think that's about right.

[NightWatcher]

4. net delegate gain for Clinton 0, to -5.

due to the proportional system of the primaries and after Obama wins in Texas and Vermont, Hillary will eek out Ohio by 2 points and Rhode Island by a few.

[scheming daemons]

5. If your prediction is accurate... Hillary picks up less than 10 delegates on Obama....

....and I think your predictions are way too optimistic for Clinton, and pessimistic for Obama.


If Hillary only wins Texas by 4%, Obama will actually GAIN delegates there - because of the Caucus at night.

[skipos]

6. And what would such victories do to her 100+ pledged delegate deficit?

From what I can tell, not much. Regardless, I think she will stay in and do the Huckabee.

[jlake]

7. Shift momentum and perception.

[skipos]

8. Ah, so you agree that it won't do much for her numbers.

Would you agree that the numbers are more important than the perception? Or do you think that in Denver, if Obama still has his large lead in the delegates, the superdelegates will go for Hillary because of perception?

Further, what do you think will happen in Wyoming and Mississippi this month? Will she finally take the lead in pledged delegates?

[alcibiades_mystery]

13. Perception is important because we hate bandwagon effect crowd psychology

and prefer careful and rational examination of issues. So, in that sense, we hope for the Big Mo!

Er, or something! Aaaaaach! The make-no-sense! It hurts the eyes!

[SoonerPride]

9. Obama will win Texas and Ohio

and HRC drops out.

[alcibiades_mystery]

10. Completely ridiculous

[SoonerPride]

16. No, it is reality.

She will fail to win the two big prizes tomorrow. Just watch.

[alcibiades_mystery]

18. Note to Hillary and Obama supporters: The future can't constitute a TRUTH or REALITY

I've seen so many people say "Hillary will win. It's the TRUTH." Or, as in this case, "Obama will win. That's REALITY."

Something that may occur in the future cannot be "true." It can only be within a range of the possible. It just makes you look ignorant, so you probably shouldn't say silly things like that.

You are making a prediction. For all we know, the earth will spin off its axis at midnight tonight, casting us all into death space.

Pet peeve. It's a logic thing.

[GodlessBiker]

11. These two states can be just like Wisconsin. It all depends on turn out (in bad weather).

Will the weather dampen the participation of seniors?

[ElsewheresDaughter]

14. you mean all the Republican 1 time crossover voters for Obama right?

[GodlessBiker]

15. If states permit that, any candidate might benefit from it. The final numbers are all that matter.

[Dogmudgeon]

17. Sounds about right

I'd give RI to Clinton by 8-10 and VT to Obama by 15-18. Obama has a very strong college presence. And rightly or wrongly, Howard Dean is perceived as being in his camp.

If the story about Canada makes the news in OH, it's Clinton by 20. Any win in Ohio changes the long-term Hillary narrative -- she becomes the Beer candidate, and Obama is the Wine candidate. (Don't you just love Tweety's metaphors? But he's going to choke painfully on them.)

Texas is likely to remain tight; Obama has sunk a huge amount of managerial manpower into the state, preferring to concentrate on TV ads in Ohio.

It has now become Obama's race to lose. And you can tell by the large number of people posting that Hillary has to win by 20 or more points in all of the states.

I'm still predicting a 40% chance of a Clinton-Obama ticket, 30% of Obama-Clinton, and 30% some other combination.

--p!