Lets be honest about tomorrow

[loveangelc]

Hillary does not need to win the states by 60% in OH and TX to remain viable. If she wins both states she is going to be able to say Obama cannot win big states and claim a huge come back victory. Yes, the delegate math will still not be in her favor but I think the perception is just as important. However if she loses even one of those states, I think it's over for her.

[NightWatcher]

1. nope, given the most optimistic Clinton outcomes, she might pick up 1-3 total delegates

that doesnt make a dent.

[loveangelc]

4. what I am saying is that its perception that matters.

[Kittycat]

7. SDs will begin dumping her and those uncommitted will come out to end this.

She's run a sleazy campaign. She failed to prepare, and her handlers are of questionable integrity and action. IMO, it almost looks like they tried to sabotage her - but in the end, she's the final decision maker. Poor judgment on her part. The next 48hrs are going to be telling, and will likely end it all. Also keep in mind that there is another contest just shortly after this tuesday. One in which Obama is favored to win. It will just continue to negate her legitimacy.

[NightWatcher]

10. Not to mention people like Bill Richardson, Biden and the others who care about preserving the party

[JackORoses]

18. you're speaking of voter perspective. Sure the public might think she is back in it.

But the Party Bigwigs know that Delegates are what counts.
They know if she doesn't make a big gain tomorrow, she will not catch up with Obama.

They know that an extended Primary is not good for the Party.
After tomorrow, you will see the decision they have made.
Bill Richardson hinted at it last weekend.

Hillary is done whether she admits it or not.

[yellowcanine]

24. Actually it is the delegate count that matters now. Perception is great early on but

winning late primaries by small margins and not gaining much in delegates is just not going to be good enough.

[Kaylee]

13. But can you imagine the press the Clinton campaign would

get if she wins either state. The momentum would definitely be in her favor.

[leftofcool]

2. Especially Ohio

And in the smoke filled backrooms of the DNC, winning the big states is what counts no matter how many delegates you have. It called being electable.

[easy_b94]

9. If Obama has more delegates then they......

have to give it to him..or you can have a lot of people sitting out the GE.

[oviedodem]

17. Like Me; AND chaning my party affiliation

[writes3000]

3. If Clinton wins OH & RI, she will claim victory DESPITE only winning 2 contest out of 15

Just 2 victories out of 15 contests. Unbelievable.

The superdelegates will decide this. Fortunately, I think they'll do it swiftly.

[loveangelc]

5. Like I've said, If she loses TX or OH she's done.

[Bread and Circus]

6. You are correct however, that scenario (though likely) leads to...

the fact that the only paths that lead Clinton to the nomination are likely to tear the party apart.

By almost all probable scenarios she will always be behind on elected pledged delegates. She cannot reverse the gap unless she gets huge wins, which despite all of her campaign's spin, is just incredibly unlikely to happen.

Therefore, she's going to have to win this on the Superdels and somehow getting the Michigan and Florida results in play.

Both of those scenarios are going to be really destructive to the party.

At some point, she and her advisors are going to need some adult supervision and tell her to put the gun down.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

8. Absolutely Agree With Ya, And A Very Objective Take On It.

I think tomorrow will be one of the most anticipated/anxiety ridden/exciting/clockstopping political moments I've been part of yet. How will it all unfold? Who the fuck knows anymore. All I know, is that I'm seriously considering taking off work Wednesday, since I'm fairly certain my punk ass ain't gettin to bed on time tomorrow night lol.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. This Race Is Easy To Game Out

If she wins TX, OH, and RI she will go on to win KY, WV, PN, and PR

Who knows what the Super Delegates will then do?

Especially, if neither is polling significantly better against Great Grand Pa McCain...

But she has to win TX and OH...

Tomorrow will be Hillary's Waterloo or Battle Of Shiloh...

[JackORoses]

19. You know what the SDs will do. Bill Richardson told you last weekend.

The Party will rally behind the Candidate with the most pledged delegates on Wednesday.

I wonder who that will be?

[Apollo11]

12. If Hillary wins Ohio and also does well in Texas, she will fight on!

Doing well means winning, a tie, or a very close second place.

Just my prediction. B-)

[Window]

14. ..

[Bucky]

15. I've seen GDPers spend 2 months underestimating her tenacity

You're right that she only needs to win, not win big, to stay viable. If she loses both Ohio and Texas, she's out of course. But if she wins Ohio, I think she'll be able to take it to Pennsylvania and put up a serious tussle in any Florida primary Charlie Crist can get organized. Clinton is a hardassed competitor. Never ever count her out.

[loveangelc]

16. I think she'll be asked to step down if she loses TX imo.

even the governor of pa said she has to win both for her to go on into pa.

[Independent-Voter]

22. Some would call her "tenacity" a personality disorder. She's toast unless she

wins by big margins tomorrow.

[meow mix]

20. she will want to ruin his chances for winning the GE

for the 2012 run. so it wont be over..

[Hepburn]

21. OK....let's be honest about tomorrow.

You start first, OK?

[rug]

23. Honest and objective post.

Refreshing.

[JVS]

25. We just need to be more dedicated and ferocious!

She's not going to win the nomination

[Major Hogwash]

26. Yabbut, after 11 straight losses, she says she has the momentum!

I think you're right though. It's over because mathematically she can't pull a victory out.

Is that really a picture of you and your dog?
That dog is huge!

[quantass]

27. The only problem with this logic is that if it she claims she can win big states but can't win...

delegate counts then one can't honestly give her the nomincation for it...she would still not have the popular vote, nor the most states to go along with it...the superdelgates could say swing back to her and give her the nomination but this would go against the peoples will....THe idea that TX and OH are wins despite not winning with large margins is misleading and using them as levearge for a nomination disenfranchises the rest of the states....this would destroy the party....

Lets not forget that although hilary won those big states Obama was close behind with large #s too....who is to say that Obama couldnt win now since his name is more know...the math shows that the longer that Obama campaigns he ALWAYS overtakes Hilary in the polls and during voting time...so who is to say this trend doesnt continue on his 2nd pass in GE....if anything he'd be stronger.

[Spider Jerusalem]

28. In terms of delegate math, she does, sorry

if she wins by a few percentage points, and the delegates split more or less evenly, she needs landslides in the remaining primaries to pull ahead. This is an incontroverible fact. It is impervious to spin.