Here's why Obama will be the presumptive nominee in 10 days ...

[Alhena]

let's assume that Hillary has a very good scenario for her- an 8 point win in Ohio, a 10 point win in Rhode Island, and a 2 point popular vote win in the Texas primary but a loss in the Texas caucus. Let's assume she loses Vermont by 15 points. She will probably net no more than 15 delegates in that scenario, which will leave her with a 135 delegate deficit among pledged delegates.

At that point, the Democratic party will stare into the abyss. They will realize that their nightmare scenario of a resurgent Hillary carrying the battle all the way to a scorched earth convention in Denver is looking entirely likely. The party will know that, if that happens, the chances of our party winning in November are practically nil because Hillary and Obama will spend the entire summer tearing each other apart and raising money only to defeat another Democrat. The Hillary and Obama supporters will become even more invested emotionally in their candidate and their dislike for the opposing candidate will grow. This is absolutely what will happen if this thing carries on to Denver, and the party and everyone on this board knows it.

Thus, the only option available to the party to avoid this is a superdelegate shift, in the interests of party unity. And that is exactly what will happen. It will gain steam with an Obama win in the Wyoming caucus, and Obama's overwhelming win in Mississippi on March 11 will give a lot of superdelegates cover to say "oh, Obama has the momentum again, and he now has a 145 delegate lead- the party needs to rally around him."

If the huge superdelegate shift isn't enough to convince Hillary to drop out, I wouldn't be surprised to see Al Gore surface and put his prestige behind Obama as the candidate. The bottom line is that Hillary's ONLY path to victory is a scorched earth path to the convention, and the party can not and will not allow that to happen.

[Kittycat]

1. Agreed.

It's not about her anymore. She can't legitimately win this thing, unless she pulls out the necessary margins in the contests tomorrow - and going forward.

[NightWatcher]

2. without 20 point wins in each state from here out, she cannot take the nom

and I dont think the "party elders" want this to go to the convention where the winner would only have 8 weeks to plan a strategy against McCain. Bill Richardson was right. Whoever has the delegate lead this week will be rallied behind and the other candidate will face pressure to step aside for the good of the party.

[Alhena]

4. Richardson's endorsement will mean so much more on Wednesday ...

if Hillary wins on Tuesday, but not by enough to cause a huge delegate shift.

If this was an actual strategy by the Obama campaign in coordination with Richardson then it is absolutely brilliant. You don't really need an endorsement like his when you have momentum, but if you need to shape the narrative after a Hillary win on Tuesday then a Richardson endorsement can be huge.

[krkaufman]

7. An endorsement amidst all the pre-primary smears and slander ....

... would have been lost, too. But an endorsement on Wednesday, I agree, would shift momentum to the endorsee almost regardless of Tuesday's results.

[meow mix]

3. im gonna rent a stasis-pod for the next couple months.

wake me when its over.

[caseycoon]

6. Best idea I've heard all week! :D n/t

[Window]

5. ..

[Bahala]

8. Wrong - You Are Forgetting the GOP and Florida

If it is close with Obama leading, then Florida's Republican governor will "graciously" volunteer to run a primary for Florida to prolong the Democratic primary, and perhaps get some more votes in the Hillary column. The longer this goes, the better it is for the Republicans. Florida's governor is not going to commit now, because if Hillary is beaten, but Florida hosts a democratic primary, then it will just give Obama free air time to campaign in Florida.

So, the key is to pray for Hillary to narrow Obama's lead. Then, if it seems that Hillary might not be able to close the gap, then Florida's governor will offer to run the Florida primary, which should go in HIllary's column. The downside is that the Democratics get to campaign in Florida. However, if it is really ugly, then perhaps the Florida voters will be turned off of both Hillary and Obama.

[Why Syzygy]

9. Are you underestimating the DLC? :shrug:

[Dogmudgeon]

10. Obama needs to depend on superdelegates. How ironic is that?

Obama still has a mathematical chance to close the pledged delegate count, but only if he wins with about 80%. Otherwise, it's going to the convention, no ifs, ands or buts. A 145-delegate margin is substantial, but not overwhelming. It's about 15%.

There is also a little matter coming up on March 25th -- the start of the Rezko hearings. Congress was good enough to postpone them until after most of the critical primaries were over, but there are still enough left to give Hillary a lot of Mo if Obama does not fare well.

If Obama can face the panel clean and acquit himself well, no worries there. He will then be likely to win. But if he blunders, or if he actually is dirty, then the superdelegates will step in and go for Hillary.

It is clear that Team Obama has been spinning a narrative that gets him off the hook no matter what happens. The constant calls for Hillary to drop out, the talking points about Hillary destroying the party, the projecting of Obama supporters' anxieties onto her, it's all in place now. If Hillary wins, it will be because she lied, cheated, had sex with Satan, stole -- and even worse, she got people to vote for her! Or so that's the story. Obama's supporters will be able to riot and still say, "Hillary made me do it!"

So it isn't over by a long shot.

--p!

[Gore1FL]

11. Give Hillary 55% of the Super delegates

And Obama can win less than 50% of all the remaining delegates to win.

The issue is not super delegates. The issue is have the super delegates overturn the proportion of the pledged delegates.

The 795 Super delegatesare figured intothe 2025 total. Subract them, and Obama needs only 434 of the remaining 981 delegates. (approx 45%).

Do you prefer that?

[Dogmudgeon]

12. It doesn't matter what I prefer.

And the superdelegates will only overturn a popular/pledged vote in a fairly extreme case. But there has been considerable gloating over superdelegate "defections" for over a month now.

None the less, Obama still needs 2025, just like Hillary. It will be easier for him, but it's past the cakewalk stage now. The clamor for Hillary to drop out is based less on math than on frustration.

--p!

[Gore1FL]

13. I just proved the math pretty well

Other than RI I can't think of a contest where Clinton has a significant lead, and several where Obama does. She realistically has to make up 80 to 100 delegates tomprrow for there to be a realistic chance of her even having an argument, much less a chance to win this.

Without that type of a victory, and based on the likely outcomes of future races, Clinton could claim a super majority of Super delegates and still not stop Obama from hitting 2025.

Unless she starts major campaign swings through states and territories she has so far ignored--or manages to make a meaningful reduction in the existing gap, she will have to face an expanding delgate gap until PA. At that point, she'll need a major win, that does not, at this time, seem possible under even the most optimistic outlooks.

It may be past cakewalk, but it never was supposed to be a cakewalk for Obama. He wasn't the inevitable candidate planning to use the nomination process as acoronation.

[davidpdx]

15. It's a lost cause trying to convince people

Hopefully tomorrow the results will speak louder then words. If the primaries in Ohio and Texas are close, it's going to pretty much spell doom for Clinton.

[TheDeathadder]

14. People better get ready

Clinton's going to win tomorrow, the primary will be real primary and go to the convention. and most important, there's going to be lots of angry threads all spelled out in CAPITAL LETTERS!! because Clinton is going to become president.

Man it is going to be so awesome to have President Clinton!!