Thinking the unthinkable

[hogwyld]

Where do you see the primaries going if Hillary takes 3 of 4 elections tomorrow?

I currently, using my vast powers of prognostication (blind guessing) think Hillary will win:

Ohio by 8% - 10%
Texas by 1% - 3% popular vote, with Obama slightly winning the Caucus after.
Rhode Island 12%.

The only state I see Obama winning outright is Vermont, but with a small delegate count.

I don't see Hillary really cutting into Barack's delegate lead that much, maybe 10 - 15 net gain. Mathematically, still in it, but practically, very difficult.
Does she stay in and contest this to the convention, tear the party apart, and hand it all over to McGrumpy in November, or do you all see another route?

Disclosure: I am an Obama supporter, and would like to see him win, but am very nervous about her perceived "comeback" even if the delegate gain isn't all that much.

[MethuenProgressive]

1. If she wins 3 out of 4, Obama should drop out

and not "stay in and contest this to the convention, tear the party apart, and hand it all over to McGrumpy in November"
:eyes:

[AtomicKitten]

2. Obama won the last 11 -- Why didn't Hillary drop out? Hmmmm.

[MethuenProgressive]

7. (AK, I'm mocking the OP)

Shhh.

[AtomicKitten]

19. Okay, but it's still a relevant question. If Obama lost 11 in a row, he would have dropped out.

He said so, because it would have been the right thing to do.

For all the complaints of being put upon by the world in this campaign, Hillary runs on an entirely different set of rules - her own.

[MethuenProgressive]

24. Of course he said that - because he didn't lose 11 in a row!

The 'argument' is that Clinton should drop out even if she still has a chance, because that's what Obama would do?
That's a silly argument to have.

[AtomicKitten]

31. I think it might take a blow dart & animal tranquilizer to convince her of her defeat.

[MethuenProgressive]

34. I think Skinner could use a few hundred of those soon...

It's gonna get stinky around here once the nomination is settled.
But I think you and I will be voting for the same Democrat, won't we? :hi:

[hogwyld]

49. No matter who wins the nomination

In the end, I will vote for the nominee.

[Tom Rinaldo]

47. Edwards lost 11 in a row in 2004 and no one clammered for him to drop out

And he had only won ONE primary before that string of 11 losses. Edwards dropped out after he lost all ten March 2nd 2004 primaries also, making it 21 losses in a row at that point, with only one victory.

I never ask any of our candidates to drop out.

[totodeinhere]

3. Where are all of the pessimistic Obama supporters coming from?

Everything I have seen points to Obama's having a good shot at taking three out of four.

[jmg257]

4. They continue to beat each other up till the convention, Fl & Mi become important again, and the

party gets screwed in the end. DO NOT underestimate Hillary Clinton - too much personal gain at stake.

[rug]

5. Why is a Clinton nomination unthinkable?

[Armstead]

9. Oh where to start?

[rug]

25. Any place you want.

[Armstead]

33. Okay, another eight years of the politics of meaningless polarization

Just when it seems that the country might be ready to move the political center further to the left, we are going to be subjected to another eight of the spiral of personalized politics.

The GOP will feed off Hillary and mount ever-more incendiary attacks on all Democrats and "liberals" and the Clintons will continue to feed it with the scorched earth politics she is currently practicing in the primary.

The result will be political stagnation, and the country will become dispirited and the special interests wilol continue to loot the economy and take over the political system.

[rug]

38. Fighting Republicans is not polarization.

The GOP will feed off Obama until and when they coopt him.

The Democratic Party was born with Jefferson opposing the Federaliasts. He was such a polarizing figure.

[Armstead]

54. There's meaningful polarization and meaningless polarization

The Clintons specialized in meaningless polarization.

A good old battle over ideas and policies and ideology is one thing.

But engaging in pissing contests with Republicans while basically ignoring or going along with their agenda is meaningless polarization.

[Hepburn]

42. Let me count the ways....

....and here are three just for starters from her Sentate voting record:

YES on the IWR

NO on the Levin Amendment

NO on banning Cluster Bombs

Sorry....but I cannot and will not support Republican bullshit like that.

[Selatius]

6. She'll probably stay in if there isn't a knock-out blow landed by Obama.

Texas and Ohio are going to be split, perhaps with Texas going to Obama. I'm speculating, of course. If Obama swept Ohio and Texas, it's over.

[MethuenProgressive]

10. Or Rezko hits the fan.

I swear BO's got at least one or two big speed bumps ahead.

[Selatius]

16. Eh, at this point, I don't think Hillary has much except Ohio at this point. n/t

[truebrit71]

17. Whitewater to you. Rezko is the best you and your fellow Clintonistas can come up with?

..Not good enough...there is no 'there' there...

[MethuenProgressive]

18. You're blaming BO's Rezko problem on the "Clintonistas"?

You need to go outside and get some air, pal.

[truebrit71]

23. I'm blaming the fervor with which the Rezko non-issue keeps getting raised...

..is being heavily promoted by Clintonistas on DU...or are you not able to figure that out, pal...??

[MethuenProgressive]

28. I hate seeing "democrats" use Rush Limbaugh slurs like "Clintonistas" here.

Your hate is now on ignore.

[truebrit71]

30. As is yours...

..."democrats"....

Go Cheney yourself...

[David Zephyr]

8. I think your crystal ball has a crack in it, hogwyld. Obama will win Texas big.

My crystal ball shows a huge win by Obama in Texas taking a slew of delegates that will be humiliating to Clinton.

I think Obama will pull out Ohio. If he loses, it will be very close.

[hogwyld]

15. I really wish I had your optimism

I see all these tightening polls, and am worried that we're going to somehow snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

[RBInMaine]

56. Ground game and GOTV effort work to Obama's advantage.

Also, MANY Obama voters aren't being polled: i.e. young people, Independent and Republican crossovers, etc.

[truebrit71]

11. Okay, understand that losing a 20-point lead and marginally winning is NOT a "comeback"...

...you should have learned that from NH...

The lazy presstitutes horny for a catchy term to dangle in front of the soporific masses, used the fact that she LOST a massive lead in NH and the "came from behind to win" NH as the hook to try and liven up what was otherwise going to be a boring story...

If you have been the "inevitable" candidate for 18 months, how the hell can you be the "comeback kid"...it defies logic...

Hillary loses TX - by 3-6 points
Hillary wins OH by 3
RI - Really WGAF?

Obama INCREASES his lead and Hilary has to decide whether to stay in the race and tear down a fellow Democrat, or bow out gracefully and start to take back some of the evil-shit she has been spreading about her opponent.

Bottom line, whether she wants to admit it or not, she's done after tomorrow night...

[hogwyld]

21. That's the whole point though

Us political junkies here know what's going on, but I know the media will spin this as the great Phoenix rising moment, and influence the masses that don't follow politics all that closely into jumping on the Clinton "bandwagon" to an inevitable nomination.

[truebrit71]

29. No doubt the corporate mediawhores would up the spin..but she wouldn have to win TX and OH to even..

...BEGIN that process and I simply don't think that's going to happen...

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

12. Not going to happen, but not enough in any case.

[cloudythescribbler]

13. I'd give you, say, 3-1 odds that, even if HRC wins Ohio, it's by LESS THAN 8%

Would you take me up on it?

[hogwyld]

52. She will win OH

It may not be by the margins I predicted. Would be happy to be really, really wrong.

[DemGa]

14. This will cause the shifting momentum toward Hillary to grow exponentially

The game is most certainly ON at this point.

[John Q. Citizen]

32. And Hill supporters claim Obama supporters are dreamers....

'Dream on, little dreamer, dream on
This world ain't what you think it is
It's just what it is''- Greg Brown

[me b zola]

62. Will the clouds part and the choirs sing?

You guys bust me up. :rofl:

[I Vote In Pittsburgh]

20. If that happens

Then this will go to the convention. In all likelihood, Obama will still be up many delegates and get the nomination. Even if Hillary wins tomorrow, the remaining primaries overall favor Obama.

As for November, I am confident that Obama will win even if this goes to convention. He has the youth vote more than any candidate in a long time, and polls don't account for new voters. That is why polls have been slanted in favor of Hillary since Super Tuesday.

[Raffi Ella]

22. "tear the Party apart"...?

Give me a break.Half the country wants Hillary.If he doesn't win decisively tomorrow then you guys have to start thinking about why.

Yes he is charismatic and has a lot of support but so does Hillary.We want her to win this and are behind her with out votes,our money and our enthusiasm.Her support isn't sensationalized but it's THERE just the same.This race is neck and neck and if it should go to Convention then it NEEDS to go to convention.

It's not right to ask one to drop out when their numbers are so even.I think you all know that but want him to win so badly that your sense of what Democracy means has flown out the window.

[truebrit71]

26. 0-11. Yup. Even numbers.

...she's been behind for a month now...time to leave politely and with grace...

[SeaLyons]

40. Says who???????

No way is it time for who to leave. It's full steam ahead for Hillary.

[Raffi Ella]

50. C'mon.

Be honest,if Barack was so close in numbers and was in Hillary's position would you be asking him to leave the race?

I think not and I certainly wouldn't be asking him to.I believe in Hillary's ability to win this and if she were in Baracks position I wouldn't be so angry and vicious toward him or his supporters the way you guys are against Hillary and hers right now.

Sorry,but this is a Democracy and this will play out the way a Democracy is suppose to.Like it or not Hillary is in this to win it and I back her 100% for fighting for this most important job.I would expect nothing less than what she is doing at the moment;if it were Barack I think you'd feel the same way.

[truebrit71]

55. Yes. We have a General Election to focus on and the rethuglican candidate is already focused on that

...she was lost 11 in a row, and will lose the balance of the remainder if she stayed in...It's time to show some class and leave...

[alphafemale]

27. Clinton will win only RI and claim it is the only state that matters.

Just watch.

:hide:

[MethuenProgressive]

35. BO might only win the Socialist Republic of Vermont.

Man, I wanna be watchin' FOX if that happens! :popcorn:

[hogwyld]

61. You make Socialism sound like a bad thing

I think this country could use a LOT more socialism.

[stillcool]

36. "Must-win spin"

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/02/29/716900.aspx

Must-win spin
Posted: Friday, February 29, 2008 12:57 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: 2008, Clinton, Obama

From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Who is Texas and Ohio “must win” for again? Hillary Clinton’s chief surrogate, former President Bill Clinton, has said she has to win both Texas and Ohio. Harold Ickes, a top aide, said, "If we lose in Texas and Ohio, Mrs. Clinton will have to make her decision as to whether she goes forward or not.” Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, a Clinton supporter, said in order to win Pennsylvania, she’s got to win Tuesday.

So Clinton must win, right? Clinton Campaign Chief Strategist Mark Penn today released a memo to the media, though, with the subject, “Obama Must-Wins.”

“If he cannot win all of these states with all this effort, there's a problem,” Penn writes. And not only does he have to win, they have to be “decisive,” according to the memo.

“Should Senator Obama fail to score decisive victories with all of the resources and effort he is bringing to bear, the message will be clear,” Penn continues, “Democrats, the majority of whom have favored Hillary in the primary contests held to date, have their doubts about Senator Obama and are having second thoughts about him as a prospective standard-bearer.”

Obama has won a majority of nominating contests, including caucuses, but note Penn’s use of “primary.”

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe says, by their estimate, his candidate is ahead by 162 pledged delegates. (NBC News’ hard count shows Obama ahead 157 pledged delegates, but there are 13 delegates still unallocated, including nine in Colorado, two in Maryland and one each in Hawaii, Democrats Abroad, New York and Tennessee. Of those states, Obama won Colorado, Maryland, Hawaii and Abroad.)

“We’re heading to a series of close contests” on March 4th, Plouffe said on a conference call with reporters earlier today. “There will not be a huge delegate swing.” Plouffe also pointed out that they could rack up more delegates in a decisive victory in Vermont than Clinton could with slight wins in either or both Ohio and Texas.

“They have said themselves they need to win both Texas and Ohio by over 10 pts,” Plouffe said of the Clinton campaign. “There’s a long way to go, so maybe they can do that. Their goal was to dig into our pledged delegate lead on March 4. They thought they could make huge delegate strides.

[hogwyld]

46. I think VT and RI will cancel each other out

So the big items will be if Hillary wins, and by how much. Remember, she won NV, but lost the delegate count.

[SeaLyons]

37. Hillary has the support

of the "true" democratic party. I don't think you realize how many of us are supporting her, but all you have to do is look to the tightness of this race. Obama has brought in support from independents and republicans (and much of the republican vote he's received will flip in the GE for McCain), but if you took those votes away from him, Hillary beats him hands down with democratic voters.


Hillary for President!!!

[Avalux]

44. The "true" Democratic Party?

Where the hell do you get off making such an arrogant statement? The notion only true Democrats support Hillary is absurd.

Hillary is the establishment candidate; she is running her campaign like a Republican and is beholden to the corporations. If anyone stands for our party's ideals, it's Obama.

[SeaLyons]

45. My statement

did not imply that ALL supporters of Obama are not true democrats.

[Raffi Ella]

53. oh get off your high horse

and give your faux outrage a rest.Fact is that those who identify themselves as Democrats ARE voting for Hillary.

Those indies and Repubs are great UNTIL they flip for McCain in the G.E. and who's to say that won't happen?Super delegates are in place for a reason and part of their job is to make sure outsiders don't decide OUR Nominee.

self identified DEMOCRATS are voting for Hillary.Deal with it.

[hogwyld]

51. We're going to need that Independent support

If we want to take the WH. Also, how many of the new and young voters will we lose in the GE if Hillary's the nominee?

[malik flavors]

39. The only hope I really feel for Obama having a good night tomorrow is that...

Before Wisconsin no poll showed him leading by more than 5 points, and he ended up winning by 17.

My gut is that Hillary will win both Tx and Oh, but my gut was wrong before both Wisconsin and Feb. 5th. Obama over performed on both of those dates, so I guess I'll just have to see how things turnout.

[Bucky]

41. She's hammering hard. If she can take it, so be it. That's democracy.

It's not always pretty, but it's fair. That's our system.

[NorthernSpy]

43. my fear is that Clinton has given up on 2008, and that all this is to destroy Barack...

... so that she can be the candidate in 2012.


She's not saying "I'm the better candidate". She's saying, you should fear this man. He won't keep your children safe. He might be lying about his true loyalties. He might be one of them.


It's appalling. Barack Obama is an American and a Democrat. He's one of us. But when he stands in the way of something that Hillary Clinton wants, suddenly he's a dangerous foreigner who will stand by while other dangerous foreigners hurt your kids.


And that right there is ample reason to want this desperate, grasping woman out of our government.

[Beausoir]

60. "desperate, grasping woman". n/t

[Vinca]

48. If Clinton wins 11 straight, Barack should drop out.

Since that isn't going to happen, he should stay in because the vast majority of states coming up will go his way.

[Sir Jeffrey]

57. Ohio will be closer than that...

TX will be a wash. RI and VT will split. Obama will outperform his polling in all four states, but I still think he'll lose OH and RI.

This contest is over as far as letting the voters pick a nominee. Any notion of a "comeback" at this point is practically impossible. The media want the narrative and the ratings, so Obama closing a 20 point gap in TX and OH in 2 weeks will be sold as Clinton's momentum and the big comeback. It is a complete farce.

Do yourself a favor. Get out a calculator and start crunching the numbers that Clinton would have to pull in order to tie Obama's pledged delegate count.

The Superdelegates can do the math also. If they really want Clinton ripping into Obama for a month until PA, then IMO they deserve to have the party split. They won't allow it. They want to win this fall.

Clinton really needs to slap Obama around tomorrow in OH and TX to have *any* rational argument to make to continue. My guess is that if these numbers hold and they split, then she will be out one way or another very soon. She'll either go willingly or the Superdelegates will force her out.

[hogwyld]

58. I know Hill's been working for this moment

her entire life. I don't think she'll give up that easily. SD's be damned.

[Sir Jeffrey]

59. Then she'll be forced out...

One way or another, this contest is going to come to an end very soon.

All of this bullshit Hillary is slinging at Obama is helping only one person in the world right now: John McCain. The party establishment is not going to sit back and watch her smear Obama for another 6 weeks when she stands *no* chance of winning.

If she continues beyond the point when the party bigwigs tell her to drop out, you'll see hell rain down upon her and her finances dry up.