Isn't TX an open primary? And don't the polls only reflect DEM. voters?

[jenmito]

If Obama's leading by a couple point among DEMS., I'd think he's SURE to win the state with the help of Indies and some Dems. Right?

[loveangelc]

1. most polls include independents and republicans i believe. the susa poll does.

[jenmito]

3. Thanks. Because I have seen polls of DEM. voters on MSNBC where he's up a couple points.

I guess all polls are different.

[thevoiceofreason]

12. SUSA undersamples blacks and crossovers

In fact, its entire representative body is too small. 840, for Texas?

[Independent-Voter]

32. 840's fine as long as the sample is well-done. You only need about 1.5 K for a national sample.

[jenmito]

23. MSNBC just showed the latest MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon poll to be of DEMS.

in TX.

[redqueen]

2. TX is closed.

Technically, anyway...

[SharonRB]

4. Not according to Kinky Friedman on

Bill Press' show this morning. He said it's an open primary and anyone can vote on either ticket. Maybe the caucuses are closed, I don't know, but the primary is open.

[Blue_Roses]

6. Primary is open--caucus is closed

you have to have voted in the primary to vote in the caucus. They stamp your card

[jenmito]

8. Thanks. So ANYONE who voted in the primary is allowed to caucus.

:hi:

[thevoiceofreason]

15. You have to have voted in the dem primary to caucus dem

[jenmito]

17. Right. That's what I said.

:hi:

[redqueen]

9. Well first of all, that guy is a capital dumbass.

Second of all... yeah, that's why I said technically. Anyone can walk in and vote, but at that point they give up the right to vote in repub runoffs, participate in the repub convention, etc.

And yeah the caucus is just closed... no 'technically' to it.

[SharonRB]

18. Whether or not he's a dumbass

isn't the point. He did know it was an open primary.

[redqueen]

20. It's officially a closed primary.

And even with the weird rules, it's only SEMI open.

But whatever.

[WolverineDG]

24. Primary = open

caucus = open only to those who voted in that party's primary only.

You can't vote R & participate in the D caucus (& vice versa).

You also can't sit out the primary & participate in either party's caucus.

dg

[jenmito]

25. Thanks. And I just saw ANOTHER poll (Quinnipiac) on MSNBC. It's of DEMS. only.

That's a great sign for Obama.

[SharonRB]

28. That's what I thought

Thanks, DG!

:hi:

[thevoiceofreason]

14. Texas is wide open.

[redqueen]

16. See post #9. (nt)

[malik flavors]

26. It's completely open. I live in texas. You walk in and they ask how you want to vote.

[redqueen]

27. I live in Texas too.

Once again, OFFICIALLY closed... only SEMI open, even with weird rules.

[Igel]

34. Yes, but it doesn't stop with them asking you how you want to vote.

When you actually vote in the dem primary the first step is to change your party affiliation.

Lots of repubs and independents may ask for a dem ballot. But only dems will actually cast dem ballots.

So it's completely open, until you actually vote ... then it's completely closed.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

5. He could pick up delegates even with a loss.

[jenmito]

7. I know. And I heard the places he's strongest have the most delegates.

:hi:

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

10. And with a state the size of Texas...

even with a loss in Ohio and R.I. I suspect Obama will come out tomorrow with a net gain of delegates.

If Clinton won't concede after that, the superdelegates will start rallying behind Obama.

[jenmito]

11. I agree...

Even if Hillary WINS TX, OH, and RI, I don't think she'll get much of a net gain in delegates, and even in THAT case superdelegates will start running to Obama.

[OHdem10]

13. No,, as one RW Talk show Host explained yesterday , grinning

as he said it, the Republicans will "muck it up a little".
(Fox Channel)

[jenmito]

19. Yeah, RWers try to get Repubs. to mess with our elections. I don't think they're

successful, though.

[redqueen]

21. They're not.

I've worked these elections. I've never once seen crap like that happen. I live in one of the reddest areas in TX, and it shows in the voter rolls.

[jenmito]

22. I'm glad to hear that.

:hi:

[ctaylors6]

29. Also note that you won't be able to tell from actual votes who's an R & whose a D

you'll just know how they voted in the primary. If lifelong R votes in D primary (for good or bad reason), the only record is that they selected D ballot for this primary and are therefore "registered" D for primary. I assume there will be discrepancies between exit polls and actual votes for that reason.
Registration stays with that party through election cycle.

[rinsd]

30. Most polls are looking for Dem primary voters so if its open that is taken into consideration.

How nice that Obama needs to rely on Republicans fucking around with our nominee because he can;t seem to attract enough Democrats to his message.

:eyes:

[jenmito]

31. So when the poll says it's a poll of "Dem. voters" they mean Repubs. and Indies, too?

He's BEATING her by a couple points among Dems. The Repubs. and Indies add to that lead.

How nice that Hillary wants to keep the country divided. :eyes:

[rinsd]

33. It depends upon the poll.

But yes when it says Dem primary voters and its an open poll they usually grab a percentage of indy/GOP votes.

Some polls don't let you get a free peek at the crosstabs that would show that info but some do see below

The following are for Texas

The PPP poll has crosstabs, they have GOP/Other at about 20% of their polling sample

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/PPP_Texas_Release_030308.pdf

Crosstabs for Insider Advantage, they have GOP/Indy as almost 30% of their polling sample (27.8%)

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/downloads/InsiderAdvantage_Majority_Opinion_3-3-20.pdf

Survey USA has GOP/Indy as 23% of their sample

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d7698664-137f-46f0-ba92-32aea473d72e

WFAA/Belo tracking has GOP/Indie Dem primary voters at about 36% of their sample

(see page 15)

http://www.wfaa.com/s/dws/img/standing/wfaa/poll/data/0302/0302.pdf

Mason Dixon has it as about 29% of the sample

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/static/pdf/poll/0302txdems.pdf

Alot of this is difficult to measure because we are not sure of the turnout of those two groups. TX primaries of the past are useless to model on.

[tekisui]

35. And the Caucus portion will almost certainly go to Obama.

He will pick up "bonus" delegates there.

I think he will take Texas based on the open Primary followed by the caucus. He has the ground team to do it.

[TexasObserver]

36. The polls do a poor job of projecting even the Dems who will vote.