Obama Supporters: Even if Obama doesn't close deal tomorrow--look what's coming up in the next week

[book_worm]

I'm cautiously optimistic that Obama will take Texas in both popular and delegate vote, but I'm preparing for the worst. It seems that by going negative Hillary is gaining some last minute ground, but she will still not win either Texas or Ohio by enough to close the gap in Obama's delegate lead. Even if Obama loses the popular vote in Texas he may still win more delegates if he gets big margins out of Houston and Dallas.

OK, let's say worst case and Obama wins only Vermont tomorrow. Yes, the media will say that Hillary is back and the race goes on to Pennsylvania next month. But there is a good chance that Obama will still come out of tomorrow with a net gain in delegates. He may win the delegate count in Texas and he will sweep Vermont. He will do reasonably well in both Ohio and RI.

So what is ahead in the next week? A caucus in Wyoming. Hillary just opened up an office there. Obama has been on the ground for months. He will take Wyoming (18 delegates at stake), then one week from tomorrow is the Mississippi primary with 40 delegates. I think Obama will win that one easily as well and take most of the delegates.

So I'm hoping for the best tomorrow, but preparing for the worse, but looking ahead seeing that Obama may quickly recapture the momentum and score more delegates--with Wyoming and Mississippi.

[bicentennial_baby]

1. That's what I'm thinking too

[Drunken Irishman]

2. He'll win Texas and this will all be moot.

[book_worm]

8. I'm hoping you're right!

[bunnies]

3. It doesnt matter.

I'm becoming more and more convinced that we're headed toward a fight to the death at the convention. We wont have our nominee until its nearly too late to bring the party together.

[Coexist]

4. Hugh Carey endorsed him today!

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/02/nyregion/02carey.html

In rejecting, in effect, his home state senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Mr. Carey said: “My ties to the Clintons are, I hope, stronger than ever. But when my country’s security and future are at stake, I’m determined to make a personal judgment. I think she is professional enough and competent enough to know well that some members of my family are very close to her, and mine is an individual assessment.”

“This is a Democratic year,” he said. “Win or lose, we still have Mrs. Clinton as our senator, and there could be another day for her.”

<snip>
“I had more military experience than political experience when I first ran,” said Mr. Carey, who was an Army major before getting his law degree and being elected to Congress in 1960.

[napi21]

5. Wyoming? That won't really help him. Wyoming might be

BEAUTIFUL country, but there's NO WAY A Dem will EVER win that state in a General! All that would do is fuel the "he may have won a lot of states, but they're all smaller ones that a Dem won't win in the general anyway" crowd.

[Arugula Latte]

7. That's not the point -- the post is about the primary, and winning delegates.

BTW, the blue state of Oregon will go Obama's way in May, for what it's worth. :)

[book_worm]

9. this is about delegates not the general election

I can't understand why some Hillary supporters don't seem to get that.

[Vinca]

11. Wyoming will certainly help Obama with the nomination if it goes

that far. Posts like this assume that every state Clinton won will vote Republican in the general if Obama is the nominee, which is, of course, ludicrous. Clinton can win Wyoming and Wyoming will probably still go Republican. Clinton won New York and I'd bet every dime I have it will go Democratic if Obama is the nominee.

[BeyondGeography]

18. This is the kind of thinking that turned Idaho into a more valuable win for Obama than NJ

was for Hillary in terms of net delegates gained.

Haven't you learned anything yet?

[Alhena]

6. Obama needs to improve his GOTV efforts in Mississippi

I did a diary on this subject on Daily Kos- he will win big here but needs to improve awareness that a primary is coming.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/2/185152/0212/291/467523

[book_worm]

10. He will I'm sure especially if the race is still hot after tomorrow.

[Kittycat]

12. I figure the next two weeks, win or lose tomorrow - will determine it all.

I mentioned this a couple days back. I would like to think that tomorrow, and the following few days will end it. But we know the goal posts get continually moved. So I think we should prepare ourselves for the slime machine, but know it is coming to an end. Soon.

[Debi]

13. Nothing between March 4th and April 22nd counts

according to the Clinton campaign.

That means:

Wyoming with its 18 delegates
Mississippi with its 40 delegates

Don't count.

[book_worm]

14. Good, let her think that then Obama will get probably 40 of the 58 delegates

at stake in WY and MS and will expand his delegate lead.

[Debi]

15. But those states 'don't count' so who cares if he gets the delegates?

Somebody needs to get me the list of states that count again...:crazy: I've gotten confused.

[mmonk]

16. I wish this could be over for the following reason.

She has to win 65% of the remaining vote to even draw even (ain't gonna happen). I think her surrogates will continue their type of campaigning. It will go to the convention where feelings will be raw. Unfortunately, this is how I see it.

[LSparkle]

17. Good points -- I'd forgotten that anything would happen until Apr. 22

I'm still praying that this is all over tomorrow -- it's bad enough to be fighting Rethugs but I am SOOO tired of Democratic in-fighting (and if she stays in this, it's only going to get worse, courtesy of both Clintons).

As John Fund said recently (and I LOATHE to admit I'm agreeing with him), the Clintons will hold onto the curtains to avoid leaving the stage. I'm hoping tomorrow's results at long last deliver the stake through the heart of the Clinton era of Democratic politics, so we can all MOVE ON.