catgirl
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Mon Mar-03-08 02:47 PM
Original message |
SurveyUSA: Obama, Clinton Tied in Texas (O-49, C-48) |
NJSecularist
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Mon Mar-03-08 02:48 PM
Response to Original message |
1. East Texas will decide this race |
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Edited on Mon Mar-03-08 02:49 PM by NJSecularist
Specifically Travis and Jefferson counties.
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Hawkeye-X
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Mon Mar-03-08 02:50 PM
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4. Travis will decidely go for Obama |
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I've spent some time there recently and have heard a lot about liking Obama.
Plus it's Samuel L. Jackson's county, and he's already campaigning here - and doing the movie also helps.
Hawkeye-X
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9119495
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Mon Mar-03-08 03:07 PM
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10. "Make this muthafuckin Obama my muthafuckin president!" |
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Or is Samuel Jackson campaigning on a slightly lower key?
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TexasObserver
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Mon Mar-03-08 07:55 PM
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13. Travis county is central Texas - Austin. Jefferson is Beaumont. |
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Both of those counties will go for Obama, I guarantee it.
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MadBadger
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Mon Mar-03-08 02:49 PM
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2. Crunching the Numbers myself and what I expect, Obama will win 52-48 |
NJSecularist
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Mon Mar-03-08 02:50 PM
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3. May I ask how you got these calculations? |
MadBadger
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Mon Mar-03-08 02:54 PM
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6. I looked at the PPP cross tabs that have Hillary up 6 |
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They have the black vote at 22%, and the Hispanic vote at 29%. My issue with SUSA is that they think it will be only 17% African American and 32% Hispanic. My thinking was that it will be 24% black and 28% Hispanic. I gave Obama an 87-13 lead for Blacks, Hillary a 64-36 lead among Hispanics, and I believe I have her about a 13-14 lead in the White vote. He won the other category. I came to 52.5 for Obama I believe it will be a little lower.
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catgirl
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Mon Mar-03-08 02:51 PM
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There's a report out stating Clinton will continue in the race if she wins the popular votes in OH and TX. So, I'll take the TX win any day (although I don't believe Hillary at her word).
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bluestateguy
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Mon Mar-03-08 02:55 PM
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7. That may very well be true |
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And then Obama will knock her out in the caucus that night. He will win more delegates in Texas.
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LostInAnomie
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Mon Mar-03-08 02:58 PM
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8. A 50/50 split or even a slight Hillary win is still a victory for Obama. |
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The way TX's delegates are split up will give the advantage to Obama. Without the 65% win that Hillary needs in a big state, it is a crushing loss for her.
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MrRobotsHolyOrders
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Mon Mar-03-08 03:00 PM
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A narrow win in the primary and a smashing win in the caucus will be enough to shatter the superdelegate wall and put an end to this thing.
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catgirl
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Mon Mar-03-08 06:32 PM
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11. Plus Richardson looks likes he's poised to endorse Obama |
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if Hillary doesn't have decisive wins.
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MrRobotsHolyOrders
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Mon Mar-03-08 07:52 PM
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12. Richardson will just be the start |
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When the party gets the full scope of a guaranteed winner being kneecapped by someone bent on a scorched earth run for the nomination... I think it'll be over by next Tuesday. If Huckabee was on the TV saying, "Me or Obama would make fine candidates, McCain is a shithead," the RNC would have him in a shallow grave by now.
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Mon May 13th 2024, 02:40 AM
Response to Original message |