Attention, Fellow O-supporters: How to Read these late polls

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

1. disregard any poll not taken entirely yesterday. 2-day and 3-day tracking polls are virtually useless given the Clinton campaign's late fear-ad. It took O a little too much time to refine his counter to include H's refusal to read the NIE, which means the politics of fear will be reflected in any sample that includes more than just yesterday. yesterday's polls will be a better indicator.
2. expect the usual undersampling of O's support. Unless pollsters have finally figured this out---and there's no reason to assume they have---then new voters and young voters will be undersampled, which could lead to easier than "expected" O wins in TX and OH.
3. don't count on 2. If H refines the politics of fear and O doesn't find a more powerful response, tomorrow could be a mess, with H barely taking pop vote counts in OH and TX, O taking VT, and H taking RI. Given the delegate breakdowns and half-caucus in TX, this likely would mean little or no net gain for O or H.
4. don't not count on 2. The politics of fear also pisses off a lot of people who see through that crap. Those people are new voters and young voters, born of the facebook/blogary age of full disclosure.
5. another reason not to discount the young/first-time vote: a lot of them voted early in TX, before the fear shit started

prediction last week: O nets 27-40 on the night
prediction now: O nets 17-30

Here's hoping I've way overestimated the politics of fear. If so, and if turnout goes our way, it'll be a big night for us.

[TwilightGardener]

1. Well, I'm wondering why Obama's camp allowed Hillary to control

the message since last week--she's all over the news with her attacks and on TV with her ads, and all he is doing is responding on HER turf. I wish he had come out swinging since the last debate and hit her hard on the fact that she didn't create the jobs she promised, etc. Never let your opponent frame the debate and control the message.

[monmouth]

2. Good points, but then again maybe he's just allowing that shovel

and hole to increase in size. Obama respects the intelligence of voters, she does not.

[mrgorth]

3. Agreed.

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