Obama WILL win more delegates tomorrow. I'm absolutely positive:

[mythyc]

and will humbly and publicly eat crow prostrate before all Clinton supporters if my prediction (just the general one that he wins total pledged delegates tomorrow) is incorrect.

disclaimer prior to my analysis: Don't get me wrong... for his victory to be a credible publicly and improve his case for the nomination, Barack needs to win the popular vote in Texas, which is so excitingly but also feverishly close, too close to call.

But, irregardless, even if he doesn't, Barack will walk away with more delegates overall.

Here's how, by the polls averaged out (pure rough estimates)

1) Obama wins Vermont, handily at that. Comparing #s with other states where the margins and delegate number is roughly similar,
...my prediction: Obama 9 delegates, Hillary 6


2) Hillary wins Rhode Island, but closely
...my prediction: Hillary 11, Obama 10

total so far: BO: 20, HC: 16


3) This is the biggest support for my overall assertion:
in the Texas primary, he dominates, whether or not he wins the popular vote there. The reason is Texas' system for awarding delegates in the primary (source: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/03/03/MNUAVCDFS.DTL ; there are others like it). Unlike most other states which award them proportionately to population, Texas favors concentrations of districts as they voted in the 2004 Presidential election and in the 2006 Gubernatorial election. In both cases, Hispanics balanced out just about 50-50 for Bush and Bell, meaning those areas will not carry as much weight delegate-wise as the Austin, Dallas, and Houston hubs, which Obama is predicted to win by a margin (Austin and Dallas for sure, Houston more up in the air). If Hillary's Hispanic firewall does not factor in as pivotally to her convention numbers as predicted, the totals will be devastating for her.

... my prediction, Obama wins the Texas primary, narrowly. even if he doesn't, the delegates for the primary will average as:
Obama 70, Hillary 56

total so far: BO: 90, HC: 72


4) Obama wins the Texas Caucus, handily. I think everyone agrees, barring corruption, that this is inevitable given the trends of his domination over caucuses.
... prediction: Obama 40, Hillary 27

total so far: BO: 130, HC: 99



5) Hillary wins Ohio, but closely
... my prediction: Hillary 73, Obama 68

final total: BO: 198, HC: 172

(final note: these numbers won't of course be official until registered, and are based on rough calculations combining polls and prior primaries and caucuses).
...................................................

Now let's up the stakes.

Adding these numbers into the current delegate figures at Democratic Convention Watch (the one site most polticos most trust for objective verification of pledged and superdelegate tallies) and this is where we end up after tomorrow:

Pledged Delegates Alone
BO: 1385 / HC: 1207 --- Obama leads by 178 pledged delegates.

Combined Pledged and Superdelegates
BO: 1578 / HC: 1447 --- Obama leads by 131 total delegates.

most interesting of all, not even Florida and Michigan would give HRC an edge any more:

Totals including FL and MI
BO: 1650/ HC: 1640 --- Obama leads by 10 delegates.

Finally, just for the hell of it, the superdelegate swing to Obama's favor has been very steady the past 3 weeks (check the chart on DemConWatch, the link above). If we continue the trend conservatively, my calculations see this final total on April 22, the day of the Pennsylvania Primary:

Total Combined Pledged and Supers by 4/22 (not including FL/MI)
BO: 1704/ HC: 1482 --- Obama leads by 222 total delegates on April 22.

Final impression joke: My older brother's lucky number is and has always been 222, an unplanned sychronicity making my entire analysis auspicial and therefore airtight! jk, though it's fun eh? :P ;-)

edit: spelling type-o, how embarrassing! ;-)

[writes3000]

1. Excited to read your post.

Reading now.

[mythyc]

3. saw it as soon as i posted it... how embarrassing =)

but then caught another type-o in the title... thanks for the heads up =)

[papau]

2. It is not total elected - but just total -and if no majority of votes cast and few of the 04 states?

[mythyc]

5. i don't understand your question

could you rephrase it? thanks!

[Scurrilous]

4. Great post!

K & R :thumbsup:

[JimGinPA]

6. K&R

[book_worm]

7. According to Public Strategies poll--Obama leads in early voting 56-44 over Hillary

African-American turnout has been equal to Latino. Texas early voting culmative results 2/24-3/1 polls, Obama leads in early voting 56-44.

http://www.beloblog.com/KVUE_Blogs/politicaljunkie/belopollday5.pdf

[tridim]

8. Game over, no matter how you look at it.

Please concede Hillary for the good of the party.

[mythyc]

9. she's already said she won't... do you think she's pulling a Huckabee or Romney?

it's odd yet somehow authoritative seeing Stewie say that by the way...

[tridim]

11. I think she cares about herself more than her country and more than her party.

It's pathetic.

[NJmaverick]

10. That's what the Hillary people don't understand

Narrow victories are meaningless after 11 losses in a row.