Inside Delegate Math: The Numbers or Can Clinton Catch Up?

[NYCGirl]

From Ambinder, good breakdown on the numbers and what can happen

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/02/inside_delegate_math_the_numbers.php

Ohio: Clinton wins by 4% and earns a net of 5 delegates
Rhode Island: Clinton wins by 10% and earns a net of 3 delegates
Texas: Obama wins by a net of 8% and earns a net of 15 delegates including those taken from the caucus portion of the contests
Vermont: Obama wins handily and nets 3 delegates.

We can fiddle with the numbers a bit, but winning by an extra percent in Texas is worth more than winning by an extra percent in Ohio. If Clinton wins by 8 percentage points in Ohio, she picks up a net of about 11 delegates compared to Obama's 15 in Texas. Let's be nice to Clinton and assume that she manages to eek out a win in Texas, giving her 3 extra delegates. For the day, she'd net only 8 delegates under this scenario -- with Texas and Vermont having cancelled each other out.

Moving on to Wyoming, let's assume, generously, that Obama only wins by 55%. He picks up 2 delegates. Then comes Mississippi. Let's assume the split is 60/40, Obama -- he picks up 7 delegates, and so -- since March 4 -- he's back up 1.

Flash forward to Pennsylvania, and let's assume that Hillary Clinton manages to win 60% of the vote in the state. She'll earn 32 extra delegates -- her biggest net gain so far.

-snipped- (LOTS OF NUMBERS IN BETWEEN WITH THE BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR CLINTON)

The last contest is the Puerto Rico caucuses, which takes place on June 7. Let's give Hillary Clinton an 80 to 20 victory there, giving her a net of 33 earned delegates.

So -- under these most rosy of scenarios -- since March 4, she'll have earned 520 delegates to Barack Obama's 461, having reduced his earned delegate total by about 80 -- or -- by about 60 percent -- but he'll still have a lead of approximately 100 delegates in total... and be that much closer to 2025.

[NYCGirl]

1. Kick for the wonky among us

[jenmito]

3. I think Hillary will win TX by a point or two, sadly, but won't win RI by 10 points...

I'm just going by the latest polls. I HOPE I'm wrong. The numbers STILL won't add up for her, but she'll spin it as a win, as will the media.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. If she wins TX by 1-2 points, Obama will come out with more delegates.

[jenmito]

9. I agree. I'm just saying how the media and Hillary will spin it. n/t

[AtomicKitten]

2. Thanks for posting this, NYCGirl.

The math is against her:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4880170

[tritsofme]

4. She doesn't need to overtake Obama in pledged delegates.

She needs to take the popular vote lead, including FL, and make the case to SDs that she has the best moral claim to the nomination.

[hogwyld]

5. That's not something I thought I would ever see

Moral and The Clintons in the same sentence!

[Drunken Irishman]

7. Unless she wins big, she won't take the popular vote lead.

The popular vote lead is still closely tied to the delegate lead. For her to overtake Obama in the popular vote, she will need to win Texas, Rhode Island and Ohio by 10+ points, then hope for an even bigger win in Pennsylvania.

[jenmito]

8. I disagree. If she can't beat him in pledged delegates, SDs will not be talked into

supporting her. Just look at what Richardson said yesterday-that the person with the most pledged delegates after TODAY'S votes should be our nominee. I bet LOTS of SDs feel that way.