Pledged Delegate Gain Predictions!!!

[tekisui]

What do you think?

Total Pledged Delegates up for grabs March 4th:

Ohio: 141
Texas: 193
RI: 21
Vermont: 15

Total: 370


My prediction: Obama takes Texas, with the Texas Two Step Caucus, Splits Ohio, and Takes Vermont. Hillary Takes RI-----Obama adds 20-25+ PD to his lead.

[Flabbergasted]

1. Obama 11-15

[tekisui]

2. All of the over confidence here today worries me greatly.

From both sides. I am all anxious about it.

[UALRBSofL]

8. tekisui I know this isn't on topic but

I thought Texas had more pledged delegates then Florida.

I think we have 210, and Texas 193?

I was just wondering why Florida has more because I thought Texas was more populated.

[tekisui]

9. My sources, The Green Paper and CNN.com, have TX at 193 PD's

And FL with 210, like you said. I think the PD allocation varies from state to state and is not based strictly on population.

I know Texas awards Democratic delegates based on the number of Democrats who voted in the last Primary, by district.

[tekisui]

3. Kick

[tekisui]

4. Kick again.

[grantcart]

5. +40 for Obama

[TexasObserver]

6. co-sign. Obama +40

[tekisui]

7. I like it!!!

Damn, I hope you are right. A 40+ win is unspinnable from the CLinton camp.

[anigbrowl]

12. me three

Vermont and RI cancel each other out, and I think his margin in VT will be a lot higher than hers in RI, for and Obama advantage of maybe 5. Ohio looks like a fairly event split. But I think in Texas Obama has the numbers, planning and groundorganization to produce a powerful margin of victory.

[mythyc]

10. i did a state by state analysis earlier today (link)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4862160&mesg_id=4862160

and predicted that barack would take it by around 25. This is based on a combination of the polls with delegate split trends in previous states...

[tekisui]

11. We have very similar analysis.

I hope we're both right!

[mythyc]

13. me too! n/t

[tekisui]

14. k