Obama is LOSING among Democrats.

[nonconformist]

A Number You Probably Haven't Seen

It’s well-known that Barack Obama’s success has depended largely on independent and Republican voters. The corollary to that, however, has been less thoroughly reported: Obama is losing among Democrats.

Over at the Perfect World, Cal Lanier crunches the numbers and finds that Obama, despite being ahead among pledged delegates, has fewer total votes among people who identify themselves as Democrats. (He has 7,392,809 votes; Clinton has 8,229,063.) That gives Clinton as lead with 52 percent of Democrats. Lanier also breaks the numbers down by race and points out that Obama has won white Democrats in only two states: New Mexico and Illinois.

The numbers are hardly perfect. They rely on CNN and MSNBC exit polls, which are inherently rough. (Extrapolating those percentages to estimate exact numbers of voters is going to compound margins of error.) And because caucuses report delegates, not individual turnout, those stats are going to be a little murky, too. I'd also dispute their inclusion of Florida and Michigan in the count. But Clinton’s lead is still large enough to be significant.

It helps you understand why the party gives so much power to its 796 superdelegates. If they didn’t, independents and Republicans could essentially hijack their election. It also makes you wonder whether Clinton should start citing this number, if she maintains her lead through the convention in August. Even if Obama leads in the popular vote and among pledged delegates, it might disturb party gray beards to learn that the nominee has essentially been chosen by outsiders.

http://slate.com/blogs/blogs/trailhead/archive/2008/02/28/a-number-you-probably-haven-t-seen.aspx

http://www.theperfectworld.us/cg/exitpollsum.htm

[anonymous171]

1. lol exit polls

[GarbagemanLB]

2. Who won the Democratic vote in Wisconsin? Thanks for playing. Bye.

[Occam Bandage]

Yeah, but not the white Democrat vote. Black Dems only count 3/5 as much.

[redqueen]

15. !

!!!!

[jgraz]

45. Plagiarist!!!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4855558&mesg_id=4855621

I both reject and denounce you. :P

[high density]

3. 2:1 wins don't come without massive Dem support

Thanks, try again.

[woolldog]

4. You guys do realize

that independents and republicans are also allowed to vote in the GE, right?

[krkaufman]

61. chuckle.

(And that that aspect of Obama's support should be viewed as a strength... :))

[tekisui]

5. Every state he has won, he won the Dem vote.

This dog don't hunt.

[CaliforniaDemocrat]

6. what i've been trying to say! thanks

[melody]

7. Good luck cooking that math n/t

[jpak]

8. Who won the "Democratic" vote in Maine?? Thanks for playing...etc...

:rofl:

[tekisui]

Hillary is LOSING. PERIOD.

[Shakespeare]

9. This is the meme being floated to justify nomination via superdelegates.

Interesting, but I don't think it'll go over too well with the democratic electorate.

[Benhurst]

44. We going to have a nomination via superdelegates no matter

who "wins" if neither gets a majority and thereby the needed 2025 elected delegates to get it without super delegate support. The primary has devolved into our version of "The Biggest Loser."

[krkaufman]

62. Yes, but the question is whether the superdelegates will override ....

... the winner of the majority of pledged delegates.

[NJSecularist]

10. Last time I checked you needed independents to win in the general

Or President Kerry would be in office right now.

[nonconformist]

17. You need strong Democratic support, too.

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=398

20% of white Democratic voters say they would vote for McCain if Obama is the Democratic nominee. That is twice the percentage of white Democrats who say they would support McCain in a Clinton-McCain matchup. Older Democrats (ages 65 and older), lower-income and less educated Democrats also would support McCain at higher levels if Obama rather than Clinton is the party's nominee.

You may want to hang your hat on those Indies and Republicans that enabled Bush, but I prefer to count on actual Democrats instead of some theoretical "undecided middle".

[slick8790]

27. And what makes you think Democrats wouldn't support him in the general?

Party people largely vote based on party. Independents vote on candidate.

[nonconformist]

60. At least 20% say they won't. nt

[Dark]

66. As opposed to the 50 percent of Americans who won't vote for Hillary. n/t

[krkaufman]

64. Ummm... if they're voting for McCain, then they're not "actual" Democrats.

They're just registered that way.

[OzarkDem]

52. Then vote in the GE, leave our primaries alone

Start up an Independent Party and hold your own primaries...

[DemGa]

11. Illustrates perfectly that Obama is a Sham

Counting on repugs and indies -- with a fractured Dem base - what a foolish and stupid gamble.

[ClassWarrior]

20. Is Russ Feingold a sham? He counts on broad support from (R)s and (I)s...

...for victory after victory.

:shrug:

NGU.

[woolldog]

30. The only one who has fractured the Dem base

is Clinton. Having alienated blacks with her smear tactics against Obama, she will have trouble in November.

[femrap]

55. He may shatter the Dem Party. nt

[Enrique]

65. some of them will vote for him in the general

and the dem base isn't shattered now and certainly won't be for the general election.

[JackORoses]

12. so you think Caucus States are insignificant, too?

[Occam Bandage]

13. Clinton is LOSING among voters.

[DemGa]

22. Sorry, no.

<<Obama and Clinton both hold modest leads over McCain in a general election matchup; Obama has a 50% to 43% lead and Clinton holds a 50% to 45% edge. But Clinton draws more universal support among Democrats (89%) than does Obama (81%).>>

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?PageID=1254

[sandnsea]

14. Washington State, DC, Hawaii n/t

[tekisui]

Every state Obama won, he won Dem votes.

And Indys and Pukes. This tired old line is boring.

[Name removed]

16. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[nonconformist]

18. Don't even fucking go there.

I've been a strong Democrat my entire LIFE. I'm not the one discounting the Democratic voters in favor of Republican support.

[ClassWarrior]

24. The poster used a lowercase "d."

NGU.

[SoFlaJet]

26. then don't go where your OP went

if you don't want to be accused of being a lousy excuse for a democrat

[nonconformist]

28. Oh give me a fucking break.

I quoted an article which crunched the numbers. Are you disputing the math?

[SoFlaJet]

39. I absolutely am

she has lost 11 in a row and is about to make it 14 out of 15 losses

[Catherina]

53. Ah but come the General you're going to want independents

to come rally around the old flag pole again?

Your big problem isn't Republicans, your big problem is Independents like me who left the party in disgust and are coming back for Obama's vision - former Democrats who aren't coming back to the DLC for any reason.

C'mon, where are those open arms you keep promising us, or is that only in the General when you expect everyone to just fall in line and soldier on for the DLC? You better get down on your knees and pray for an Obama win because former Democrats like me won't be around if it's Clinton.

I had enough of the New Democrat Party. You have some nerve when the likes of Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter are endorsing your girl.

[Maggie_May]

19. He hasn't lost my vote

[kimmerspixelated]

21. A post like this one

serves no one! Really, can we use our inner edit buttons now and then?

[nonconformist]

25. So you don't think it's important who is chosing our nominee?

You don't want to win in the GE?

[Recursion]

35. I think it's terribly important...

... and I think everyone who out of some bizarre lunacy is against running a candidate who appeals to Republicans and independents needs to perform a recto-encephalectomy.

[nonconformist]

38. At the expense of Democratic voters?

Yes, I have a huge problem with THAT.

[Recursion]

40. What does he actually do that you don't like?

If all you are really complaining about is that his style reminds you of church? Yes, suck it up.

If you have an actual policy problem where you think he's too far to the right, well, so do I, but Hillary has even more of those. He's the most progressive major candidate we have.

[nonconformist]

48. Yes, I have a lot of issues with him based on policy.

Like examples of what he said in speeches didn't translate to anything meaningful.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4825736

Like his health care plan, and his Harry and Louise ads in a repeat attempt to set back anything resembling universal healthcare for the foreseeable future.

Like when he said Hillary won't get his voters, but he'll get hers. It was so condescending and I for one am sick and tired of my vote being taken for granted instead of earned. I'm also very disgusted by how he panders to Republicans at the expense of Democrats.

Like how he was asked, begged, not to include McClurkin in his event and did it anyway.

Like how he paints himself as an anti-war candidate, (mostly because he made one speech about it, and see my first link on if that can be believed0 when he's not.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=4643795

Like how he's praised Reagan and insulted the Bill Clinton presidency.

I could go on and on. I have a LOT of issues with him. I don't buy his lofty rhetoric, because I'm a realist.

[kimmerspixelated]

50. something has been completely misunderstood.

I'm all for Obama, I just think that posting that he is losing is alarmist.

[bunnies]

23. This again?

Right. It has been at least a day or two.

[bluestateguy]

29. Uh Huh

First, I'm not sure what the point is in bringing up the point about white Democrats. You are only looking at states that had exit polls, and a lot of those caucus states had no exit polls. I'm quite certain that Obama won among white Democrats in Nebraska, Utah, North Dakota, Maine, Alaska and tomorrow in Vermont. But then again Mark Penn doesn't think those states "matter" amyway.

In any event, the way to solve this problem is to close the primaries and caucuses to registered Democrats only. Unitl that happens, rules are rules and that's how the game should be played.

[anigbrowl]

31. A number we haven't seen because it's statistically bogus

Is the exit poll data weighted to the actual result? Or compared with known voter registration data? Why is there a 'total white democrats' category but not a 'total male democrats' one that would allow us to filter for gender bias? I am not disputing that his broad conclusions may be correct. But I would be reluctant to decide anything on a set of figures like this; it's fairly sloppy data.

Meantime, i don't really care. Both candidates knew what the rules were going in. It was up to Team Clinton to show she could bring in the independent vote.

[Botany]

32. why has he won the popular vote, the most delegates, and the most states?

After Tomorrow we will see the end of Hillary's Campaign.

[nonconformist]

36. Republicans and "Independents", motives still yet unknown. nt

[Botany]

41. She is gonna get her ass kicked in OH

Obama has won across the board in just about every demographic
including democrats. I can read data too.

As to your motives they seem pretty transparent.

[Recursion]

42. Oh for Christ's sake... these are people who watch American Idol

We're not dealing with a million Machiavelli's here. They vote for people they like. They donate to people they like.

[Shakespeare]

43. Oh, I forgot. It's all a big conspiracy.

:eyes:

[graywarrior]

33. Pleeeeeeeze God, make it Nov 5. Pleeeeeeeeeeeeze! ! ! ! !

I beg you...I cannot take anymore of this..........aaaaaaarrrrggghhhhhhhhhhhh!

[EFerrari]

46. Listen to graywarrior, God, even if you hate me!

PLEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[graywarrior]

47. Class Action God Begging.

[EFerrari]

49. He's supposed to give us an audition if there's more than two of us, right?

I have the terrible feeling that he's booked.

You know things are bad when God bails.

:)

[graywarrior]

54. Apparently he's been in hiding what with John Hagee on the loose.

[DJ13]

34. Pro Clinton bloggers are starting to sound shrill

I think their heads will explode when Hillary finally quits.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

37. This one needs two.

[EFerrari]

51. That's It! Clear evidence my dog should drop out!

lol

[rniel]

56. re

Can't believe the shit I'm reading today. I'm just wondering how much you are getting paid by hillary to post this here.

[nonconformist]

57. Yeah, I've been here for years, just biding my time. nt

[hfojvt]

58. A number I have seen, since Hillary supporters here often tout it

but in the detailed list they did not include Kansas, where Obama won 66 to 33%. That would be tough to sift out though, since we had an open primary. Hopefully our party can keep those who re-registered for the primary.

But hey, many of the super-delegates announced their choice, on both sides, before the voters even voted.

[femrap]

59. Thx for the post....fascinating data.

I've long felt the repugnants would want to take over the Dem party....so now we'll have the Far-Right Party of evangelicals, neocons, and greedy corporatists and The Right Party made up the traditional repugnants.

And the progressive people will be what??? We are headed for a 3rd Party possibly.

[LeftCoast]

63. Hmm...Interesting. Shades of the Lieberman/Lamont primary.

The good thing here is that at least in this case we're guaranteed a Democrat will win.