Texas expects record turnout from African American voters

[ariesgem]

2/26/2008 1:29:00 AM
(0) Comments

McClatchy-Tribune

AUSTIN, Texas -- For the first time in his political career, Ron Kirk says he's not worried about motivating the African-American vote.

"This year, it is a force of nature that doesn't appear to need a whole lot of help from people like me," said Kirk, the former Dallas mayor who in 2002 became the first African-American in Texas to win a major-party nomination for the U.S. Senate. "The black vote is going to turn itself out."

Kirk acknowledged that his remarks were a bit hyperbolic. But just a bit. The emergence of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama as the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination has generated more excitement among African-American voters than Kirk has ever seen.

The same sentiment is heard from state Rep. Marc Veasey, a Democrat and the only African-American in the Tarrant County legislative delegation, and from Houston Rep. Garnet Coleman, chairman of the African-American Legislative Caucus. All three are supporting Obama over Sen. Hillary Clinton in the March 4 primary.

And all three said that even though the African-American population in Texas is only about one-third of the Hispanic population, they expect blacks to cast votes in equal or greater numbers in the primary. If the forecast holds true, the effect could be pivotal.

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The Clinton campaign circulated a memo recently suggesting that Hispanic turnout this year would likely surpass the 24 percent mark it reached in 2004, and that the New York senator expected to run up the score in that constituency.

But Kirk and others said that blacks this year could account for 25 to 30 percent of the Democratic turnout. Veteran strategist Kelly Fero, who is white and neutral in the presidential contest, said it could even go higher.

"It's plausible that African-American turnout could push north of 40 percent," Fero said.

Such a turnout would likely mitigate or erase the ever-narrowing lead Clinton has in polls of Texas primary voters. Kirk said he expects Obama to collect 80 percent to 90 percent of the black vote next month.

http://postbulletin.com/newsmanager/templates/localnews_story.asp?z=42&a=329443

[MadBadger]

1. If so, Obama wins in TX. Survey USA, which shows Obama up 1, says they only account for 17%

[democrattotheend]

5. They were 21% in 2004

Not sure why their percentage would decrease, except for the fact that the Latino community is growing more rapidly and more Latinos have become citizens in the last 4 years. Latino turnout jumped in California (something SUSA predicted pretty accurately) while African American turnout stayed steady, but AA turnout did not decrease, and Obama has a much better ground game in Texas than he had in California, so I hope the African American share will increase.

[geek tragedy]

2. 40%? That's nuts and would mean a BLOWOUT.

I'd be shocked if it crossed 25%.

[thevoiceofreason]

3. Hey DU. You have no idea how the Texas vote will turn out tomorrow.

The turnout is going to be huge. And I'll tell you what -- the new voters aren't coming over for Hillary.

[NJSecularist]

4. This guy has no idea what he is talking about

Anybody with any knowledge of the demographics of Texas would realize that it would be virtually impossible to reach 40% black turnout in a contested primary.

The black turnout will be lucky to be 25%. 30% would be a jackpot for Obama and he would win the state running away.

[thevoiceofreason]

9. 40% is high, but 30% is likely.

Look at the turnout in the individual early vote locations in Houston. Other than Montrose (a split box), the African American boxes were off the charts. The Latino boxes were so so. So, look for incredible results for Barack in the most delegate-rich districts. That equals a win.

[Cha]

6. "The black vote is going to turn itself out."

Inspired by the same person who inspired moi.

[TexasObserver]

7. I've known Ron since he had a full head of hair. Circa 1975.

He's always been one of the Texas Democratic party good guys.

Too bad we couldn't get him into the senate, but he was a good mayor of Dallas.

He's right on target about black turnout in Texas. Nothing like I've ever seen here.

[Dbdmjs1022]

8. If this is true, Obama locks it up!

I have to admit, I've been nervous today, but reading this has me calmed down a bit.

And on a wider note, do most people realize how biased some of these polls are towards older (read; Clinton) voters. I just saw a couple polls on RCP that said she's up by 6 and 12 percent. But on both of those, people 60 and up accounted for over 50% of those polled! People 18-25 were only 3-10%!

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/FinalOHIOMarginalsMarch22008.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/PPP_Ohio_Release_030308.pdf

If Obama has a strong youth vote in these states like he does in almost every other state, he's going to swing these numbers substantially!

[ariesgem]

10. I've been a little nervous today too.

From what a couple of posters said upthread, 40% may be a bit of an exaggeration. Hopefully the numbers will fall somewhere in between. That should put him over the top.

[NorthernSpy]

11. Lord, let it be so!

Clinton's latest tactics will be especially ill-received with this demographic, I think. They will be more determined to protect Barack, and as a consequence I predict Hillary will lose those last few points of remaining black support.