From Al Giordano in "The Field"
You heard it here, first: Clinton’s “3 a.m. ad” has backfired in the Lone Star state.
On power-rotation on Texas TV, Mark Penn’s wet dream of finally getting to go full-powered nasty against Obama is not only the laughing stock of YouTube but also among most young Texans, including young Hispanic Texan voters, and no small number of elder ones, too.
The opposite of what Penn intended has happened: the ad has pushed white male voters toward Obama, and will cause a higher-than expected Independent and Republican cross-over to vote against Clinton in the Democratic primary, tossing various delegates from rural, white, Republican districts into the Obama column.
Ironically, Rush Limbaugh’s call for Republicans to cross-over and vote for Clinton to “bloody up Obama” will likewise have unintended consequences: planting the idea – in a sense, “giving permission” to Republicans to cross party lines – but to people who never in a million years would vote for a Clinton, and who generally like Obama as a person, if not for the tone of his politics.
If you think that Clinton’s “3 a.m.” ad has worked for her, consult today’s SurveyUSA poll, taken after the ‘3 a.m.’ ad hit the airwaves: Among Texan voters that consider the Iraq war the most important issue, 57 percent favor Obama to 42 for Clinton. Among those that see “terrorism” as the most important issue, 62 percent back Obama to just 30 for Clinton. The survey samples are small on that – caveat emptor – but they also reflect the word on the street.
Or if you missed it earlier, check out this video of real-time focus group results of three kinds of people – Clinton supporters, Obama supporters, and undecided voters - watching that ad.
Remember that the “3 a.m.” ad never ran in Ohio. Too bad for Obama. Because what it has wrought in Texas is a likely delegate blowout tomorrow on his behalf.
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