(CBS) Poll: Bush Credibility Takes a Hit (KERRY 48, BUSH 43)

[mobuto]

(CBS) The Congressional hearings on what happened before Sept. 11 appear to have raised concerns about both the Bush administration's credibility and its overall performance, even on the issue on which the administration may be staking its re-election.

The latest CBS News poll, conducted Tuesday through Thursday, shows declines in the president's approval ratings in a number of policy areas, but especially changes in the evaluation of the president's handling of terrorism.

Six in ten Americans are following the hearings closely; 56 percent say the administration is cooperating with the panel. But what the administration is saying does not receives high marks: 59 percent say it is hiding something it knew before Sept. 11, and 11 percent even say it is lying. Only one in four think the administration is telling the entire truth.

--snip--

So far, the impact on the campaign is mixed. Nationally, the president appears to have lost ground in the last two weeks, trailing Democrat John Kerry among registered voters by five points, 48 percent to 43 percent. However, the election won't be determined by the size of the Democratic or Republican margins in states like Texas, New York and California, the largest states. There are 18 battleground states where the campaigns are already focusing their attention and their advertising campaigns. In those states, the race is tighter, with Mr. Bush receiving 47 percent to Kerry's 45 percent.

--continued--

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/04/02/opinion/polls/main609944.shtml

[sadiesworld]

1. Great news!

But only 11% think Bushco lie re 9/11?

[mobuto]

2. But only one in four Americans

Think its telling the truth.

So go figure.

[Wickerman]

3. BBV set up in this piece?

There are 18 battleground states where the campaigns are already focusing their attention and their advertising campaigns. In those states, the race is tighter, with Mr. Bush receiving 47 percent to Kerry's 45 percent.

geez, so early in the morning and my :tinfoilhat: is already so tight. :shrug:

[mobuto]

4. That's less meaningful

A two point lead is a tiny lead, and its hard to lump small swing states like New Hampshire in with Florida and Pennsylvania.

[59millionmorons]

5. Thats two polls in two days that has Kerry leading

LA Times Kerry 47-44-4
CBS Kerry 48-43
Pew Kerry 47-46

This proves Gallup was an outlier. Seems Jeff Greenfield was correct, this Clarke testimony will take time to seep into the public.

[tandot]

6. Great! I can't wait to see the polls after Rice's testimony

how will she explain her claim that terrorism was their main focus when her speech she prepared for Sept. 11 (before the attacks)didn't even mention UBL or Al Qaeda.

[mobuto]

7. She's not especially good on her feet

She doesn't appear to be too good sitting down either, but Bob Kerrey will rip her to shreds regardless.

[blm]

10. Ben-Veniste is the one I'm betting on.

.

[tedoll78]

12. You're right.

Every time I see her in a TV interview, she only seems capable of answering with pre-programmed talking points, over and over again until the interviewer gets tired of hearing them. It'll be interesting to see the panel press her for more detailed answers. Maybe they'll have some unexpected queries and catch her off-guard? Perhaps something that she has no programming for?

[yellowcanine]

8. I don't believe it is possible for Kerry to be ahead nationally but behind

in the battleground states - unless he is way ahead in places like California or New York - and that should be partially offset by large Bush margins in Texas and other states in the South - unless Bush is not very far ahead in the South and in that case there may be some good news here. That aside, what I really think is happening is that some of the polling in the battleground states came when anti Kerry ads were being aired and before a lot of the Clarke testimony had a chance to register. Furthermore, Kerry is essentially statistically tied with Bush in the battleground states - which means he could actually be ahead in most or even all of them. The truth is that Democrats, not Republicans, have the electoral advantage in a close election - because Democrats almost certainly will win California, Illinois and nearly all of the Northeast. Bush won in 2000 only because of a fluke in Florida (and then he still needed some shenannigans). Without the fluke of a butterfly ballot in Palm Beach County the shenannigans (disenfranchisement of alleged felons + SCOTUS) wouldn't have been enough or wouldn't have occurred. Furthermore, as a result of 2000 plus soft Bush support in the military (Iraq) and senior citizen (prescription drug fiasco) communities I believe Kerry will win Florida this time. The Clarke testimony combined with continuing bad news from Iraq will continue to erode Bush support, particularly in the battleground states. It is not Clarke's testimony about the pre-911 actions of Bush that are going to hurt the most-it is his testimony that Bush went after Iraq at the expense of the larger war on terror. This has yet to gel fully.

[mobuto]

9. Remember that Bush has been pumped

tens of millions into contested states, and almost nothing into uncontested states. So naturally he'd be doing better there than he should, if you look only at nationwide averages.

[GOPBasher]

15. Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Florida

We need at least 2 of the 4 to have any chance, and 3 of the 4 will seal the deal. Unfortunately, Shrub has so much money to burn from his billionaire friends that he can run as many ads as he wants in those battleground states.

[ECH1969]

11. Good news

by why does Bush have any credibility with Americans is beyond me

[David Zephyr]

13. The American Public Has Finally Come to Agree With Howard Dean:

Howard Dean: We are not safer with the capture of Saddam Husseien.

Remember that?

Remember the "outrage"?

Well, look at these new numbers and remember the words of Dr. Dean:

More safe from terrorism
Now
53%
Three weeks ago
62%

[Guaranteed]

14. Man, if we win the popular vote AGAIN, but lose the election

I'm going to be REALLY pissed.