"I Spent $41.8M on TV Ads in March, and All I Got Was This Lousy LAT poll"

[flpoljunkie]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A40573-2004Mar31.html

The Bush campaign, which this month has spent an unprecedented $41.8 million on television ads, many of them attacking Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.), has become increasingly frustrated by the ability of Kerry and such "independent" groups as MoveOn.org and the Media Fund to counter with nearly $20 million in ads.

And, by the way, the John Kerry campaign raised over $40 million in the first quarter of 2004, breaking all previous Democratic fundraising records.

http://www.latimes.com/news/custom/timespoll/la-na-poll1apr01,1,4010669.story?coll=la-news-times_poll

The survey found presumed Democratic nominee John F. Kerry holding a 49% to 46% advantage over Bush among registered voters, a difference within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Bush won more support for his policies on terrorism than any other issue measured. In the poll, 56% said they approved of his handling of the war on terrorism; 39% disapproved. (This is down from 70% in January)

In another troubling measure for Bush, 55%of Americans said the country was on the wrong track, a 5-percentage point increase since last fall. Such levels of concern traditionally have spelled political trouble for the party holding the White House.

[mobuto]

1. It gets worse

The new CBS poll has Kerry leading by 5. So this begs the question: if Bush puts $100 million in, will Kerry will lead by 10?

[flpoljunkie]

3. Yes, indeed, I just read the CBS poll. You pose an excellent question.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/04/02/opinion/polls/main609944.shtml

BUSH JOB APPROVAL

Overall
Now
49%
Two weeks ago
51%

Terrorism
Now
58%
Two weeks ago
64%

Economy
Now
37%
Two weeks ago
38%

Foreign Policy
Now
42%
Two weeks ago
45%

Iraq
Now
45%
Two weeks ago
49%

[BOSSHOG]

2. poor return on investment

That's what the deep pockets will be saying in a few months when bush has shot his spending wad and needs more money to carry on. Front load that money george. Get racicot to scare the FCC into taking off the likes of moveon. Send out the attack dogs to get Joe Wilson when his truthful book comes out. Wear it out george, wear it out. Show America what you are all about - hate, lies, deciet.

The conversation will soon turn to the margin of victory Kerry will get in November.

[mobuto]

4. The problem with Bush's attack ads

Attack ads hurt your opponent, but they don't help you. In fact they may drive your approvals down, even as they drive your opponent's down faster. Bush's problem, however, isn't that Kerry's popular, its that he's so incredibly unpopular. He isn't going to be able to win just by attacking Kerry, he's got to present an argument for why the American People should reelect him. So far he hasn't.

[quispquake]

5. That's a problem for all incumbents...

Negative ads only really work when you're not the incumbent...of course, the Bushies don't have anything substantial to run on, so it's gonna have to be all negative...

and from the numbers, it looks like negative ads aren't helping them much...

nice to see a fifth of the money gone already!!!
pp23

[lectrobyte]

6. great analysis

I can't see what positives Bush can run on, other than 911. Of course, I think their strategy is based on some sort of surprise: Osama, more attacks, maybe a phony ass. attempt, who knows? There's the BBV factor, and getting into tinfoil zone, the possibility of elections postponed due to <some bogus reason>. I don't rule anything out with this crowd, and they seem to be deperate to keep the white house. After all, how else is W gonna surpass 41's record as a one termer?

[sangh0]

7. But, but, but, HOW CAN THAT BE TRUE?

People on the Internet are telling me that Kerry is running a LOUSY campaign that's letting Bush* roll all over him while he skis and gets some optional surgery.

:shrug:

[dolstein]

8. Bush got plenty

He drove up Kerry's negatives and has reinforced the perception that Kerry is a flip flopper and too liberal, and all the while Bush's overall approval ratings have remained pretty much unchanged.

[sangh0]

9. Bush*'s numbers on his job fighting terrorism dropped

even though that was the theme of many of his ads

[jpgray]

11. If this were lethal, wouldn't Kerry have lost the primaries?

Because certainly this same negative message was trumpeted by several major opponents. :D

I love how the prognosticators here are unafraid to use the same crystal ball that seemed rather inaccurate for the primaries.

[no name no slogan]

10. This just proves that $$ can't buy votes (or popularity) (nt)