Obama's Ohio Problem

[susankh4]

<snip> You don't win a general election in Ohio if you can only win in 5 counties. I realize I'm speaking out against the other members in my tribe, the wealthy post-graduate male clique of punditry, in pointing out Obama has a problem in Ohio. So be it.

In Ohio, Clinton won the votes of Democrats by a 14 percent margin, 56-42. Clinton and Obama tied among Republican & Independent voters. I find it ironic that the most strident of "progressives" find themselves backing the candidate whom does the least well among self-declared Democrats.

And lets not forget that Obama outspent Clinton by a 3 or 4:1 margin, and had the union help. There's no amount of money or youth organizing that is going to change the dynamics at work against Obama in Ohio in the November general. <snip>



http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/3/5/71932/67043

[Sarah Ibarruri]

1. Obama's Ohio problem was that....

Ohioans are only interested in getting jobs, now that they have none thanks to the trade agreements Republicans (and the Clintons) love so well. Ohioans are too busy trying to make ends meet to study up on what a trade agreement is. They don't know and when Hillary talked to them and told them she'd get them jobs, little did they know that she (along with her President husband) was (were)completely in favor of the thing that took Ohio jobs away: trade agreements. :(

[CyberPieHole]

4. Obama's Ohio problem: Voters didn't buy what he was selling.

Plain and simple. You can whine. You can cry. You can stomp your feet, gnash your teeth and wring your claws but it doesn't change that fact.

[anamandujano]

6. Funny you're trying to explain their votes like that.

They voted. Deal.

[Sarah Ibarruri]

23. They believed it when she said she'd find them jobs. They don't know how their jobs left for

other countries.

[susankh4]

30. That is so incredibly insulting....

I can't believe you said it.

Ohioans are not backwoods imbeciles. Some of us have... get this.... Masters Degrees! PhDs!!

We know damned well what happened to our jobs. And we also know that Ms. Clinton isn't wink-winking the Canadian Govt about them.

[Sarah Ibarruri]

52. Go on, continue to pretend that ordinary blue collar workers really know what's going on....

... you're REALLY helping them that way. Or are you pulling my leg because you're pissed off that H. Clinton is caught at every turn for the tricks she pulls?

[Nine]

84. Ohians are very politically aware, even the blue collar workers

Especially the NE part. People talk about politics all year round. Blue collar workers aren't ignorant.

[Dhalgren]

88. I can't believe that you are denigrating working class Democrats

like this! I know that Obama is supposed to appeal mostly to elitists, but to say that working class voters vote for Clinton because they are too stupid, or too ignorant, or too ill-bred to understand or be able to grasp the politics of their own state and their own country!?? Is this really the Obama meme? I do not support Clinton, but I could never support Obama, or any politician, who felt this way about working class citizens...

[Little Star]

61. Link? Get real, she never told them that.

[susankh4]

10. Don't undersell Ohioans that way!

You sound elitest. It's unbecoming of a democrat, to say the least.

The swing vote in this state is pretty danged clear on who they will vote for and who they won't. Don't believe me? Watch:
http://video.msn.com/video.aspx/?mkt=en-us&vid=987f9956-ed8e-4762-b18e-0a0689115f9a&wa=wsignin1.0

The Canadian govt. has said that they are sorry for leaking "the wink-wink memo" or whatever you wish to call it. But noone there is denying that such a memo exists.

This is bad. Very bad for Mr. Obama. To deny it is folly.

[Sarah Ibarruri]

50. Saying that it sounds elitist helps to stop any attempts at teaching the general U.S. population

the facts, the truth and all those things they don't know about how life really works. Europeans are far more savvy than Americans. Americans live in a fool's paradise of "The American Dream" which doesn't exist. Time for people to WAKE UP!

[Kittycat]

2. Why are you assuming that all the people that voted for Clinton wouldn't vote Obama?

This is primary voting, not GE.

[anamandujano]

7. They just had the chance and they didn't.

[PM7nj]

26. Okay, so...

I guess Hillary won't win in Illinois, or Wisconsin, or Washington, or Vermont, or Maine, or Connecticut, or Maryland. Aren't those all states she would need to win in the general? I mean... they had their chance in the primary, why would they vote for her in the general?

Seriously, either one of them could win any blue state, and Ohio most likely could be a win for either of them. I think the argument about how they will only win a state in the general if they won it in the primary is ridiculous.

[susankh4]

37. We are talking about the SWING VOTE

Of course.. the dem base will vote for whomever we nominate.

But OH has a well established "swing vote." That vote gave Bill the WH for two terms. And GWB the WH for two terms. They are set to go for Hillary in 2008. Unless we make them defect to McCain.

[PM7nj]

49. It's going to be a swing vote either way.

Your correct, Ohio is always a swing state. I don't think what happened yesterday can really be applied to November though. I think either Hillary or Obama could win Ohio... or they could lose. It is always that way. As you stated in your original post, she won the democratic base, most of home (I hope) would also vote for Obama. You also said they where tied with Republicans and Independents. I think in the general Obama could get those independents, or at least get more than Hillary would. Bottom line, Ohio is a toss up for both of them in the general.

[Riley133]

57. I take it you don't live in Ohio? nt

[Kittycat]

62. Seriously.. Just add the Dem vote total compared to the puke total.

[susankh4]

14. Tell me the name of the last president

who did not win their primary in Ohio.

Hint.... you will have to go back a long, long way.....

[Kittycat]

63. You mean Kennedy.

:) Sounds like a good comparison to me.

[Kukesa]

66. I like it, too, Kitty. n/t

[democrattotheend]

3. Clinton had plenty of union help herself, and much earlier on

AFSCME has twice as many members as SEIU in Ohio, and they endorsed her months ago, so they had probably been doing member persuasion for a while. SEIU and the other unions that endorsed Obama just got started a few weeks ago.

[NJSecularist]

5. Kerry won all but 1 county in the 2004 Ohio primary

And he lost Ohio by 100,000 votes.

I think Hillary has the best chance in Ohio, but the fact that Obama only won four counties tells us nothing...

[susankh4]

15. Oh yes it does.

It tells us that the swing vote will go to Mr. McCain if he runs.

[madmom]

51. Ohio 2004 election was to say the least fixed, remember we had an

all republican government then and they "promised" Ohio to b*sh (remember blackwell), things have changed and we're really entering the 21st century really we are.:sarcasm:

[RummyTheDummy]

8. Ohio will be a red state in Nov.

They are masochists.

[Kukesa]

12. Not if I can help it. n/t

[RummyTheDummy]

20. Good luck with that.

[Kukesa]

31. Yeah, I plan to work for Dems no matter who gets the nod. n/t

[amborin]

13. if Obama gets the nom, yes, Ohio will be red in the GE

[susankh4]

18. That is on the money!

Hillary will take that swing vote. I know many who switched parties to vote for her. (They switched to repug 8 years ago, to vote for GWB.)

SE Ohio, in particular, loves the Clintons. As does the Toledo area. Both came up short of ballots, BTW.

[RummyTheDummy]

22. It'll be red regardless of who the nominee is.

[susankh4]

25. So, you are planning to lose no matter?

[RummyTheDummy]

28. Nope. I just think we should concentrate efforts on truly flippable states

Iowa and Colorado come to mind. And there are others. Ohio is a sucker bet for the Dems. The Repugs WANT us to get sucked into a fight there.

[LisaL]

38. Oh yea.

OH just elected a democratic governor and democratic secretary of state.
But let's concentrate on those "flippable" states, whatever they are.

[RummyTheDummy]

41. Ohio will be red in Nov.

Bank on it. You can say it isn't so. You can pretend it won't happen. But Ohio will be red in November

[LisaL]

43. Well, I agree-if Obama is nominated.

[RummyTheDummy]

46. It will be red regardless of who the nominee is.

[amborin]

72. then the reds win

are you are red yourself?

[susankh4]

89. Actually, polls are now showing

it will be blue... no matter who our nominee is.

PA polls blue only if it is Hillary. And WVA. And NJ. (Lots of working class folk in all those states.)

[Kukesa]

42. Well said, lizzy, well said. n/t

[RummyTheDummy]

47. It was?

I didn't think so.

[amborin]

55. Hillary will win Ohio in the GE, Ohio will be red in the GE if Obama is nominee

[RummyTheDummy]

59. Not gonna happen for either one of them.

[OhioBlue]

83. flip that around. n/t

[jaysunb]

9. Fair enough

but I'd like to offer another point of veiw.

1) The Ohio Democrats turn out number was about 30% higher than the Republican, which shows strong motivation on our side. So if Obama is the nom, he should already have a strong base to begin with.

2) Obama has proven he can win once red States, so places like Colorado,Virginia & Nevada--just to name a few-- are in play for the Party there fore reducing the neccessity for Ohio to put us over the top.

Remember, the DNC & Obama are on the same page as to a 50 State strategy. 2008 will truly be a "change" election on many levels. What started w/ the Dean campaign in 03/04 and grew up in 06, will change the political map.

Oh yeah, and a shout out to GWB for helping us along. :evilgrin:

[amborin]

11. history also shows you can't win the GE unless you've won the Ohio primary

this holds for both repubs and dems

only exception is kennedy in 1960, and this b/c his name was not on the ballot

[americanstranger]

17. See post #5.

Kerry won Ohio big in the primary (all but 1 county!), lost by 100K in the general.

This whole Ohio argument is monumentally stupid. There are no guarantees. Y'all think that because Clinton won in the primary, she's a lock to win it in the general?

That makes no sense whatsoever.

- as

[susankh4]

24. Bush won his primary too...

Winning one's primary is not a guarantee of winning the election. It's the other way around. Losing is a guarantee of losing.

[joshcryer]

68. And if you win 2 out of Alabama, New Mexico, and Ohio you win, too.

Hasn't been wrong since 1912 (since New Mexico became a state).

[susankh4]

70. So which of these two will Mr. Obama win?

New Mexico is a real longshot. It neighbors AZ (McCain country) and has a high percentage of Latino & Native American voters. Both of those groups favor Clinton.

I don't know NM as well as I do Ohio, obviously. But... my Brother-in-Law is Navajo. From that area. He may be representative of a sort of "swing vote" out there. Went for Bush the last two terms. Clinton the two before that.

Look, I am not saying I don't want Mr. Obama to win the GE. I do! With his VP Ms. Clinton. I am skeptical, that's all. Skeptical.

[amborin]

27. of course there are no guarantees

winning ohio in the primary does not mean one will definitely win the GE

but you can't win the GE unless you've won ohio in the primary

(only exception was kennedy in 1960, b/c his name was not on ballot)

winning the Ohio primary is necessary, but not sufficient, to win the GE

[americanstranger]

32. My God.

Kennedy did it.

It has been done. There is precedent. You can win Ohio without winning it in the primary.

Like I said. This argument is monumentally stupid.

- as

[amborin]

53. idiotic reasoning on your part

that is the one exception, and the info provided by moi

[americanstranger]

60. Whatevs.

Speaking of idiotic - aren't you the one who posted the 'popular vote' thread today and only posted Ohio numbers?

And I'm idiotic. Takes one to know one, right?

- as

[LisaL]

34. Right, Kerry won the primary but still lost OH.

So, how do you think Obama is gonna do in OH, considering he lost the primary?
To me, it's a no brainer. Hillary does better in OH than Obama, so it stand to reason she would do better than Obama in GE, no?

[americanstranger]

39. No! Nothing makes that true!

She could 'do better' and still lose! Kerry is proof of that. You couldn't do much better in Ohio than Kerry did in the primary.

And he got pasted in Ohio in the GE. Fat lot of good 'doing better' than his primary opponents did him.

- as

[LisaL]

40. Yea, she could do better and still lose. But since she is doing

better, at least she would have a better shot.
Is it really that difficult?

[americanstranger]

44. It's meaningless.

This is going nowhere fast.

I have better things to do with my time than argue this. Like picking lint of my cat. You think what you want, I'm done here.

- as

[OhioBlue]

19. When is the last time Ohio mattered in the Primary?

[LisaL]

35. It counts in GE.

[OhioBlue]

65. Exactly - in the general. n/t

[amborin]

71. Ohio has Always mattered in the Primary

check out some history

winning the primary in Ohio is Necessary, but not sufficient, to win the GE

this has held for both parties

a candidate can win the Ohio primary but not win the GE

but you can't win the GE without winning the Ohio primary

[amborin]

74. it always matters in the primary, b/c Ohio's primary has always been significant

no rep or dem has won the GE w/o first winning the Ohio primary

but winning the Ohio primary does not mean they will definitely win the GE, but it's necessary to win the GE as a minimum requirement

[OhioBlue]

81. Usually we already have a strong front runner AND

We used to be part of Super Tuesday - now we are post Super Tuesday.

[TheDonkey]

16. and lets not forget that Hillary Clinton has been campaigning for 12 years. YAWN

Fact is, OH is not the only state that counts. Read the #'s

[L0oniX]

21. Ohio: the granny voters won ...BFD!

[madmom]

54. so you think Obama can win with out the "grannies"?

[moondust]

64. Granny voted for Mrs. Nafta.

Granny don't need no job.

[Kukesa]

29. Ohio's problem: I hear racist remarks about Obama every day

and they disgust me. I hear them where I live, in Dayton, in Cincinnati, and from friends and relatives who live in the Youngstown area.

I could never repeat some of the things I've heard and am surprised that people I formerly respected would say such things.

At lunch the other day (with five people who do not follow politics as closely as you and I) my lunch mates ASSUMED I wasn't an Obama supporter. They assumed because I'm Caucasian. When I'd heard enough and announced my support, they were flabbergasted and tried to change my mind. Their arguments were pure racism and I would decline lunch with them again.

Hell, they probably won't invite me to eat with them again. I'm better off.


(BTW, I posted this in another thread but feel it needs repeating.)

[susankh4]

33. Uh... Dayton

One of the few places that went for Obama.

Let me be clear.

*It isn't "racism."
*It isn't the "Limbaugh effect."
*It isn't ignorance.

It's the economy, stupid. And the candidates' histories (or lack thereof.)

[Kukesa]

36. I disagree. And my Ohio world is a little larger than Dayton. n/t

[susankh4]

45. Dayton's Super delegate said it today

she is voting for Obama cuz that's how her district voted.

[Kukesa]

48. You're referencing Dayton proper,

and I'm referencing the Dayton AREA.

I'm only telling you what I hear from friends and family and I have no intention of continuing this nit-picking.

I think you're wrong.

[susankh4]

56. I think I have heard it all now!

Ohioans are:

stupid
old
racist
ignorant

What else do you want to call us?

Have at it. It won't change the simple fact that "As Ohio Goes, So Goes the Nation."

[Riley133]

58. The name calling will affect November's outcome.

So many Dems are enraged at being called too old, too racist, too stupid - I mean, even Big Eddie said today we needed IQ tests - so guess how some Ohioans will be voting in November? (Hint: Differently than they did yesterday.)

[Riktor]

85. Alright, I'll take a shot:

My family is primarily from Butler County, Middletown, to be precise. I also have relatives in Clinton County and Warren County. I didn't grow up there, but I have spent enough time in Southwestern Ohio to get a flavor for the culture, a reverence for The Beast, and a serious addiction to Skyline Conies and Milton's Doughnuts.

I would find it difficult to believe that anyone who spent a considerable amount of time in Southwestern Ohio could deny a twinge of old-fashioned racism in the air. I have personally heard rap referred to as "nigger music... out loud... in public. Amongst the chief concerns of Middletown City Council is the migration of black citizens making their way from historic "Niggertown" into the traditionally white neighborhoods. I have heard it discussed at length the "pros" of racial profiling, and the dire need to "get all them niggers off welfare".

Frankly, I can honestly say the place I have heard the word "nigger" used so liberally was the greater Dayton area.

Now, I'm not going to generalize the words and beliefs to the hundreds of thousands of people that live in the region, but I'm not willing to deny this mentality has its place there, either. My grandmother is an old-fashioned racist (in the sense she doesn't hate non-white, she just thinks they're indecent), and I know, for a fact, she voted in the Democratic primaries (Ohio having an open primary system).

Is this the root cause of Obama's downfall in Ohio? I don't think we can realistically determine that, but I certainly don't think it helped him any.

[Radical Agitator]

67. Ohio is a important Presidential swing state n/t

[mmonk]

69. I don't quite understand your logic.

Don't you want to increase the chances of independents and some republicans voting for a democrat?

[susankh4]

80. In the GE, yes

But not in the primary.

This is the Dem primary. And one can never tell the reason why a repub is voting in it.

[barack the house]

73. Barack was going to win Ohio before the NAFTA lie. He can win fine..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgpAvckNixM

Written article here too...

http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news/story.html?id=6a0ad227-2175-4142-8c40-a21c6e301223&k=46757
.
.FOR the love of god folks turn the MSM off they are destroying our lives. Watch Olberman though. Always listen to headonradionetwork.com and novamradio.com for real news. Let'get our man past the post.

Here is what to do...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yel3hRs6h54
.
.

[amborin]

75. Obama lied and denied there was ever a meeting

then, when caught red handed, he said he wasn't aware of it

WTF?

either a bald faced lie, or he's not even aware that his major advisor is chatting about nafta with the canadians

[LeftCoast]

76. Hasn't been proven a lie

In fact, if you look at Harpers words, he almost admits it was true.

One example:

"We will take every step necessary to get to the bottom of this," Harper told the House of Commons. "The way the leak was executed was blatantly unfair to Senator Obama and his campaign."

[barack the house]

77. I'll trust the Canada news we are talkign the same media that smeared clintons for years.

[barack the house]

78. I'll trust the Canada news we are talkign the same media that smeared clintons for years.

[LeftCoast]

79. The above quote came from the CANADIAN article you posted

Did you even read the article?

[Mass]

82. This is nonsense. The counties that Obama won have half of the population of Ohio.

What he needs is to win the popular vote, not the most counties? Are you telling us that Clinton's voters in these small rural counties are racist and would not vote for a black man?

[Bad Thoughts]

86. Great argument, If an only if you accept Clinton=McCain

I'll concede that point to you.

[NoBorders]

87. Obama and Clinton Beat McCain in OH equally

According to latest SUSA polls:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/6/145023/7178/225/470640

[fujiyama]

90. I fear

that Obama would have a more difficult time winning the state than Hillary in the general election. Hillary has stronger union support in the state and does better among working class people and seniors...which is ironic, because Bill did push NAFTA trough and Obama has actually spoken a lot about the loss of manufacturing jobs.

Oh and race is definitely an issue in Ohio, especially as you go farther south. Parts of the state are very much like WV and KT. And Cincinnati and Cleveland are known to be very segregated. I think this is an issue with much of PA as well.

This is not a knock on all seniors, but race is still an issue for many older people. Some attitudes don't die very easily. The one poll in OH was VERY revealing - race mattered to 20% of the voters in OH and to them 80% voted for Hillary. Now, with those attitudes (about race - not who they went for in the primary) and a crumbling economy, I can see why younger people are leaving the state for opportunities elsewhere.

Ultimately when it comes to the general election, both face a tough time against McCain. Yes, polls show both beating him now in OH but this will get much closer as we approach the election. Republicans will get behind McCain and will be very mobilized especially if Hillary is the nominee. And McCain's military service and "maverick myth" will play well also. The question is, will this election be very Democratic like '06? It's tough to say. McCain is not Bush. And underestimating him would be foolish. Hillary for that reason should be ashamed for praising him as qualified to be CiC. While Obama will have a time with the experience question, McCain beats her in this regard also. And with nastier attacks against Obama, she'll demobilize the AA vote as well.

[JoFerret]

91. She has the base

Obama has expanded the base and taken a slice of it.