Obama supporters- what is wrong with you?

[adoraz]

This doesn't refer to everyone, just some.

We won 11 contests in a row with many important victories like Virginia, Wisconsin, Maryland, Maine, etc. We won them ALL by HUGE, HUGE margins.

But, Hillary supporters just went on with hope for Texas and Ohio.

Hillary had a great day yesterday with press, but the aftermath shows that she didn't gain anything at all except bragging rights.

I told you all this. I said that the hole is even deeper for her. She needs to win all the states by double digits. Considering there are upcoming states like Mississippi and Wyoming, there is no way in hell that will happen.

Even if Florida and Michigan end up being a recount, the most I could see her gaining between the 2 would be 20-30 delegates. Stop worrying about those states.

That is just how I look at it. Yesterday was a disappointment. We need to get over it and move on.


The point of this post though, is that I just can't believe some of the posts here from Obama supporters. Some have really let the media tell them, instead of using logic. The media WANTS it to be close. I believe yesterday was a disappointment for Hillary, but I knew exactly the response she would get. Her firewalls failed, but she has an excuse to move onwards.

As far as momentum, it won't affect Mississippi or Wyoming (caucus), and I doubt her boost yesterday will last until April 22.

I am just completely shocked that so many seem to be giving up. What are some of you thinking?

How can some of you even call yourselves Obama fans? He talks about hope, and once Clinton finally gets some positive attention for 1 day, nobody can handle it. Hell, this isn't even about hope. Its just logic, he still has the big advantage.


Now lets just move on to Wyoming and Mississippi, and please don't buy into the crap the Clinton campaign will say the next few days. They will say they don't matter. That is because they KNOW they can't win. If they knew they could win, they sure would be completely hyping them up. Every state, every delegate matters. Remember that, and lets gain some delegates in the upcoming battles to offset her final fire wall in the delegate count (if she wins PA).

One final point just to keep up the confidence, worst case scenario I can see (aside from a scandal): Obama currently leads by 150 pledged delegates. I imagine that by the end of this, the lead will still be over 100 (maybe a lot more). Even if Michigan and Florida get recounts, I can't see her taking more than 30 delegates max between the two. At that point, he would still have a big lead with no excuses left. Unless if the delegates are within about 25, I would be completely shocked if they overturned the will of the people.

He will be the nominee. The only difference now, is that we are in it for the long run.

[AZBlue]

1. I wish I could recommend a thread more than once!!!

Excellent post!
:toast:

[adoraz]

3. thanks :)

[AtomicKitten]

16. I recommend your recommend

and give it a bump ...

:hi:

[Oleladylib]

24. ummmmmmmmm..she's won the popular vote..

[adoraz]

25. the texas popular vote? what does that have to do with anything?

[Dogmudgeon]

57. Bush v. Gore

--p!

[Thor_MN]

70. There is still 1/3 of Texas delegates to award, based on the caucus results

By all accounts, a messy, complicated system.

But the short story is that it is looking like Obama will gain more delegates from Texas than Clinton will.

[shenmue]

80. Yeah, who cares about the people and the way they want to vote?

Screw them! :crazy:

Do you even realize what you said?

[FedUp_Queer]

105. Excuse me?

First, like it or not, our whole presidential system only considers the popular vote, its result is not dispositive. On the other hand, if you want to go there, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html demonstrates that Obama is ahead in the popular vote. So...your point?

[JAbuchan08]

116. Obama is ahead in the popular vote and the delegate count

although some states that voted for Hillary awarded as many or more delegates to Obama, Obama has one more supporter from the Democratic voters. It is Hillary who is relying on the unnaccountable superdelegates and unfair contests in Michigan and Florida to push her over the top.

[George II]

90. How many of Clinton's votes in Texas were from Republicans? LOTS!

[Shae]

172. 8% is what I heard

8% of her votes were supposedly people who listened to Rush and went out and voted for her.
k & r

edited for typo

[George II]

176. I heard a similar number - that would mean more DEMOCRATS preferred Obama...

....which has been proven clearly in the Texas Democratic caucuses.

[Blondiegrrl]

29. So? Obama's ahead in the national popular vote.

[George II]

88. You should be telling Al Gore that.

Delegates are delegates. That's how nominating conventions work.

[Cha]

40. I just rec'd it for

ya!

[peacebird]

2. thumbs up!

just sent his campaign more $$$

[NightWatcher]

4. um , she didnt win Texas Obama might get more delegates after the final caucus numbers come in

watch for good news in the campaign to come out, hmm oh say around Monday or Tuesday

It's all good

[adoraz]

10. I know that, but

I was just saying that in terms of momentum yesterday was good for her (caucus results haven't even been finalized by the press yet).

Hopefully the media makes the Texas Caucus into a big deal, but I kind of doubt it.

Problem is for most people, they will just see that Clinton won Texas and Ohio yesterday, think "wow she won big states", and that will be that. most don't understand the way delegates are divided, and just buy into the press.

That is exactly why by listening to the mainstream, you may get a very false impression on what is happening.

[blogslut]

5. I'm fine

Just sitting back and giggling to myself. Watching the show. Biding my time.

Nothing wrong here. :hi:

[NC_Nurse]

6. I've been trying to ignore all the gloom. I donated today.

I'm hoping we here in NC can bring it home for Obama. We'll actually
matter for a change. :)

[adoraz]

13. I'm in NC too!

[NC_Nurse]

39. Cool!

[Cha]

42. Good for you guys! That will

very interesting!

[adoraz]

44. yeah and we have a lot more delegates this year

for moving the date back. looks like we will be very relevant this year.

[Cha]

49. The spotlight will be on

John Edwards, too, I presume?

[grassfed]

7. 12 in a row

Overseas Democrats #11 and Vermont #12

[txaslftist]

96. 13.

It looks like Obama won Texas, too, in terms of delegates.

[silverweb]

8. Thank you!

I think the problem is that many Obama supporters wanted this race to be over after yesterday, with Obama winning so decisively that Clinton would have to drop out.

However, it continues... and that's a frustration.

On the other hand, what you say is absolutely correct and I, for one, am with Obama and hope!

GObama! _Dare to Dream_

[anigbrowl]

9. Not giving up

just busy...as far as I'm concerned it's a good day for Obama. Useful lessons learned, both for upcoming contests and the GE - which I expect to be supporting Obama in!

[yellerpup]

77. Awesome inspiring graphic!

Kickin' for this!

[LaStrega]

170. awesome graphic! n/t

[truedelphi]

11. What are people who support Obama thinking about the media

Being all soft and fuzzy over Hillary??

The media gives anyone watching the perception that (to quote some of the talking heads) "The voters are waking up and seeing that Obama isn't who they thought he was"

They go on to say, the superdelegates will be watching this carefuly - if they sense the will of the people ahs changed - then they will change to Hillary.

Very upbeat for their gal pal Hillary. But why?

[adoraz]

14. won't be relevant by the time the convention comes

momentum is constantly, constantly shifting.

[truedelphi]

21. Hope that you are right. n/t

[GMFORD]

86. They've got a lot of air time to fill.

They can't just keep repeating that Obama has won this so they pretend that there's a chance Clinton will pull it out somehow. And to make it exciting they are pretending that the super delegates will step in and hand the election to her.

Nobody would believe that even a little if we hadn't had two general elections in a row where outside parties stepped in and gave a win to the loser.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

91. Tens of millions of $$$ in ad revenues. nt

[cameozalaznick]

113. Becaause if they don't change the story every day, they don't have a story

That's the business they're in. News. If it isn't NEW, it isn't NEWS

[DJ13]

12. The only difference now, is that we are in it for the long run.

I think thats the only part that really upsets most Obama supporters.

Now that the GOP has their nominee many of us feel our party needs to be getting behind the likeliest candidate without the 7 week wait.

That much time is giving the GOP too much of an advantage in planning for the GE.

[adoraz]

18. I understand that completely, but

its reality now, and we need to accept it and move on. Hopefully a lot of negative posts from Obama fans will just last a couple days.

we should be happy again come this weekend.

I can't stress this enough though, Mississippi and Wyoming mean a lot. Do NOT listen to the press or the Clinton campaign. Just because Obama is expected to win, that doesn't mean anything. If he wins he wins. He gets the delegates even if they press doesn't care.

[stillcool]

15. It appears to me..

that things turned out exactly as they were expected to...sans all the spin.

[grantcart]

17. now we start another streak

[Pirate Smile]

19. Great post. Someone needs to alert the fools at CNN. When Anderson

Cooper started his show tonight he said "the Democratic race is now tighter then ever" - I just screamed at the TV - you clueless idiot! Argghh. Oh, well.

I think after 48 hours the irrational exuberance of the media and Clinton campaign will wear off.

At some point the math will click in.

It will be time for a "reality check".

It isn't very smart to have a campaign based on "false hopes".

[NMMatt]

37. Has Anderson Cooper ever had anything insightful to say?

All he does is spit back what is conventional wisdom. Clinton has been good at manipulating the media. I'll give her that. However, votes and ultimately delegates are what decide Primaries. She has sucked at getting those.

[progdog]

48. Poor Anderson

His ego is bigger than his brain.

[FedUp_Queer]

109. or O'Reilly, or Buchanan, or Russert, or Williams, or whoever

the list goes on. Insight and the American Press are nearly mutually exclusive.

[mmonk]

20. The negative stuff.

They will work to get everyone in the act also. Nothing issue oriented.

[joshcryer]

22. I agree, I still think it's against her, she still can't win. It remains to be seen if she got...

...the momentum she needed.

[bigbrother05]

23. Talking Heads

Great Post

[JVS]

26. Hell yeah people. Show courage!

[Bake]

27. Well, don't assume too much about Mississippi

Oh I know, you've got it in the bag because of the AA vote. Right.

Some of us aren't ready to concede the Magnolia State. Some of us LIVE HERE and will work our asses off for Sen. Clinton.

Come on down.

Bake

[adoraz]

30. well he won alabama and louisiana right next to MS

by 21% and 14%. I would be shocked if he lost Mississippi, the highest black population in the country.

[Bake]

31. Are you suggesting that AAs will vote for him just because he's black?

We'll see. Do you live here in our fair state? I do. And I know a lot of Hillary-supporting Dems here.

Bake

[adoraz]

35. of course I am.

every single state they have went for him by at least 75%. what would be any different in MS? (I don't live there, I live in NC)

[earthlover]

65. like the 20% of Ohio voters who said race was the deciding factor? 85% Hill

[Blondiegrrl]

28. Excellent post. I agree. We're WINNING.

The Clinton campaign thrives on spin. Once you look beyond Hillary's empty rhetoric, it's obvious she doesn't have a leg to stand on, and the facts support that.

Last night's races were but a bump in the road for Obama. Once you factor in caucus results, Hillary only won two states out of four. And Ohio, that "MUST WIN" state? Was also lost by JFK and FDR in the primaries.

[thevoiceofreason]

32. Beyond winning -- building the brick wall

[Tat]

183. Momentum via script.

It isn't really like Obama had massive momentum or that momentum means anything. He survived Super Tuesday in style and even gained delegates. The rest of February was tailor made for him. Early March had a couple good states for Hillary. She's going to lose a couple contests between now and PA and win Pa by several points.

None of this math is remarkable or impressive... and none of it gives her any shot at the nomination.

[Beregond2]

33. Nominee.

Bingo. I suspect a lot of Obama supporters haven't had enough experience at this stuff to keep a proper perspective on things. The numbers and common sense are all on Obama's side. Yes, it is disappointing that we have to slog through weeks more of negativity and nastiness. But that is nothing compared to what awaits us in the GE. So toughen-up, people!

[Avalux]

34. We are winning and just won Texas. Obama did what he needed to do last night.

When I went to his town hall meeting a couple of weeks ago here in San Antonio, I remember talking to a couple of people about how great it would be if he was actually able to pull off a win. At this point he was behind Hillary by almost 20 points. We decided it probably wouldn't happen, but we hoped he'd at least come close. Well guess what? He won. And no one expected him to win Ohio. No One.

The spin is dangerous and will suck you in if you let it. We will go on and Obama will be the nominee.

[akbacchus_BC]

43. Are you serious that Senator Obama won Texas ...

Just today at work I saw a Senator Clinton supporter saying that the count was in and that she won by over 80,000+ votes. Please reassure me that you are serious. Thanks

[Avalux]

71. Clinton won primary, Obama caucus.

He will end up with more delegates out of Texas than Clinton. :hi:

[Barack_America]

117. It's two-part contest. Therefore, who ever comes out with the most delegates WINS!

Or you could average the election percentages, in which case Obama STILL wins!

[Cha]

47. Thanks...I would be freaking

out if I watched m$$m too. It's so Righteous that Obama won the caucuses in Texas and the most delegates, then.

[angiesues]

158. I certainly hope not

[VotesForWomen]

36. yeah, and O's going to win Utah in the GE!!! you people need to get in touch with reality. hillary

is the stronger candidate in the GE. obama will be mcgovern redux.

[adoraz]

38. irrelevant. doesn't matter how you spin it

if Obama has a significant delegate lead in the end, there is zero chance it will be overturned.

[lark]

125. Significant delegate count?

Is that without the 2,000,000 voters in FL, and Michigan? Oh yeah, that's the real way to unite the country by excluding the voters in two very heavily populated states where millions of people voted for their candidate? How can you be a Democrat and take a stance that says it's OK to exclude certain people's votes because they live in a particular state? Next, will you be excluding all women votes since maybe some were "indisposed" on that day and so untrustworthy? This makes me sick and sad to see one of our party's representatives sink to these Rovian depths.

[Barb in Atl]

154. Michigan & Florida

Couple things:

Obama's name was not on Michigan ballot. To ask for those delegates to be seated is INSANE. (No offense)

Check out Madfloridian's journal where she has gone over the whole sorry tale ad nauseum. The Florida state Dems chose to go along with the Fl Republicans to move the primary up fully aware of the repercussions per the DNC rules that were in effect almost a year before they pushed up the primary.

Sure, that's not the fault of the Michigan and Florida citizens, but it seems... odd, at best, to work so hard to tear down the DNC when the states chose this. Especially when the DNC seems to be doing so well with the "50 State Strategy". Michigan and Florida wanted some of the early primary dollars that come from the campaigning and the press and the interest. The party elders screwed themselves.

Howard Dean has asked and is open to an alternative, it's up to Michigan and Florida to come up with it. And Michigan and Florida dems ought to look awfully long and hard at their state party leaders for this fiasco that they brought to the rank and file.

[Cha]

53. Oh please..enough of your "votesforwomen"

platitudes. hilary's a warmonger who voted to send Women's sons and daughters to die in a misbegotten war on Iraq where the Iraqis were helpless against the bombs.

[lark]

126. Obama voted many times to fund the war

so he has voted many times for death too - so how does one speech, when he had no voting rights on the issue at the time - change his actual votes for the war? Hmmmm????

[Wetzelbill]

155. she isn't though

Not even close. I'm not even an Obama supporter, I like them both about the same, but he's much stronger in the GE than Hillary.

[Cha]

41. I can't believe it, either! I was off all

day yesterday getting some R&R and come back and the first thing I see is an Obama supporter writing that Obama should step down. I almost freaked until I read some replies and checked my email and got Obama's take on the whole enchilda.

Thanks for your encouraging OP, adoraz, and Welcome to DU!

[DrFunkenstein]

45. Fired up!

And the nice part is that I'll get to see Obama when he swings around to Pennsylvania. That's definitely worth the drive.

[cameozalaznick]

114. You'll love all the attention you're about to get

I'm in Texas and after the campaigns decamped our parts, I started to miss all the politicking and slathering of attention by the two campaigns.

[WillyT]

46. I'm Feeling Just Fine, Thank You !!!

Gobama!!!

:kick:

[FogerRox]

50. Its was over super tuesday

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

51. Just For The Record: Any Delegate Difference Less Than 100, Is Basically Guilt Free SD Decision

territory.

When it comes to when the SD's do or don't come into play, once the delegate difference falls to within 100, that situation looms larger and larger. A difference less than 100 is considered for all intents and purposes to be a virtual tie. It is not 25. If the difference was only 85, it should be considered just as bad.

[adoraz]

52. do you have anything to back this up?

I can't believe that.

edit: he should finish above 100 delegates anyways.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

56. I'll See If I Can Find Something Tomorrow. A Few Months Back Maybe, When There Was First Talk About

the potential of a brokered convention, I did a lot of research to understand exactly how a brokered convention works, what it actually is, what it means etc. During that process, back when there was far less drama and my mind far more neutral and less invested in the primary, I came across many objective articles on it. In several of them, it referenced a candidate needing a certain margin of delegates, to be considered worthy enough of putting pressure on the other dropping out outright. They then frequently used the 100 number as a benchmark for that, though there really isn't any firm number. But when referencing delegate differences, it always seemed like it would say something like "for example, if the difference was greater than 100" etc. I just got the impression that under 100 meant too close to call and basically a tie.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

92. If you take away the difference in SD's already pledged...

Clinton is behind by nearly 200 pledged delegates.

Be careful how you try to spin this argument.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

106. What Orifice Did Those Numbers Come From?

According to CNN, pledges are 135.

I've also spun nothing, so I have no idea what in the world you're talking about.

[bling bling]

54. I think lots of people were just ready to get united and thought it would happen today.

Disappointing. Big time.

Who wants to spend the next 3 months watching the pundits play highlights of 5 second sound bytes back and forth and back and forth while each candidates supporters get more and more bitter and angry at the other side?

Not me. But I won't give up, either. No way. I love this team and being a part of it. Inspiritation brings out the best in people and Obama has inspired a lot of creativity from people and I love experiencing this moment in my life. It sounds hokey but as I'm witnessing it I understand that it's something to not take for granted or blow off. It won't last forever but it's happening right now and that's all you have anyway. I was really looking forward to today so that we could begin the process of uniting. I was looking forward to Clinton's supporters getting on board at their own pace but eventually and joining in on this special time for Democrats and everyone enjoying it together. I was looking forward to creative and humorous attacks against Repbulicans here that make us laugh again. But that's not in the cards right now, I guess.

What can we do but keep fighting? I hope none of us gives up now that we're this close!!

[Olney Blue]

68. I like your post.

[jgraz]

55. nice post

:thumbsup:

[hulka38]

58. Excellent post

Thank you adoraz.

[tavalon]

59. Better yet, get out of the cesspool that is GDP and go out and work for him

If you're an HRC supporter, get out of the cesspool that is GDP and hit the streets to help out.

In other words, this place is infected with something awful. RUN AWAY!!!!

Get as far away as possible and wait until this thing is over to come back. As a matter of fact, I'm hoping GDP gets removed, like a stain on a blue dress, ASAP.

[factanonverba]

60. If Obama

is the nominee, I won't vote for him. More than one of us thinks this way.

The man is a dangerous tool of corporatist interests. Look at his wife and her work Sidney-Austin LLP. He rails against NAFTA while Michelle dreams up loopholes for her corporate clients to circumvent NAFTA.

Go ahead dare us. And see what you'll get.

[RBInMaine]

63. You're NUTS ! Hillary takes more PAC money than the R's !!

[caseycoon]

61. K&R n/t

[RBInMaine]

62. Obama people should be very happy with how things have gone.

Tuesday was just one day. Obama did very well in TX and will have more delegates because he kicked Hillary's ass in the caucus. He closed the gap quite a bit in OH when she was EXPECTED to win both OH and TX by huge margins just a few weeks ago. Now we go on to Wyoming and Mississippi with great chances to win there too. EVERY reason to be extremely optimistic with what Obama has done in this campaign. WE ARE AHEAD ON EVERY FRONT AND HAVE WAY MORE DELEGATES SO FAR. SO KEEP WORKING LIKE HELL TO ELECT OBAMA!!

[Orsino]

64. Well, if Obama can't pull ahead any further, he should drop out. :-)

For the good of the Party, you know. :rofl:

But seriously, there are (genuine) Obama supporters talking about giving up? Where the hell do you find these people? I am not even demanding that Clinton pull out, though she seems stuck in a (close) second place.

[GOPBasher]

66. Anyone know of any polls for Wyoming and Mississippi? n/t

[davidpdx]

69. Nope

I haven't seen any polls for those two states. It's possible one will be released in the next few days, but given they are small states, who knows.

[ClayZ]

67. K and R

[happygoluckytoyou]

72. OBAMA-CLINTON in 2008.... The GOP will die NOT-laughing

[Vinca]

73. Thanks for this post. Sometimes I need to keep things in perspective

and not allow my blood pressure to hit stratospheric numbers.:rofl: The one and only scenario which would allow her to get the nomination would be an underhanded superdelegate grab, a move that would cut the size of the Democratic Party in half.

[happygoluckytoyou]

74. WHY IM NOT VOTING IN 2008 ---->

BOOHOOHOO...i am an edwards democrat and my candidate didnt win the primary... its not fair... so i'm taking my balls and going home. if i dont get MY way, then im not voting for the democrat nominee. i advise anyone who supported any of the other 6 candidates to do the same.

WE WILL NOT BE MADE FUN OF NO MORE....

we don't care if a neo-con puppet like mccain wins... at least it won't be one of the democrats who knocked us out of the primary race.

am i laying it on thick enough!!!

are you picking up what i'm laying down???

what a bunch of CRYBABY democrats... who are doing the ONLY thing that will insure a GOP victory---

and the conservative media is JUST LOVING IT !!!!!!

Make a pledge today---- come on, hand over heart, flag lapel pin waving.... say it:
"I" state-your-name "will VOTE FOR THE WINNER OF THE PRIMARY and quit crying about it"

Thank you... my name is Mark Mywords and I approve this message.

[cameozalaznick]

115. You just outed yourself as a Repub troll

For the record, it's the Democratic Party.

[moondust]

75. Better to leave the TV off on days like Wednesday.

Way too much hype and emotion distorting the picture.

[Adelante]

76. Fired up nt

[yellerpup]

78. Excellent, clear-eyed post.

K&R!

[bigtree]

79. Obama ran a fantastic campaign in the last contests, especially in Texas

He had an outstanding organization of thousands of volunteers in Texas which has to be the envy of any campaign. But, I would remind folks, politics is not always a zero-sum game. Perceptions can drive the race like crazy, and a week is like a month or more during this period.

The OP is correct, though, in shaking folks out of the gloom and doom (and any other apathetic delusion). These candidates remain very competitive. And, Obama is still in the lead.

[txaslftist]

97. Obama's ground game won Texas for him.

I posted in the primary's section on my experience as a precinct chair. Obama's volunteers understood the caucus system, Hillary's folks didn't, and Obama is going to net a win in Texas as a consequence. Once again we see the effects of her disorganized, ill-prepared campaigning.

[THUNDER HANDS]

81. I'm not depressed, just pissed that she's not finished off yet

it's becomming frustrating, like having a piece of gum on your shoe or something.

[United USA]

82. Are we all democrats?

Like most dems this election, I have been soaking up all the unbiased news on both candidates. Having said that, I have heard a lot of talk that is deeply disturbing to me. I am a Hilary supporter but will gladly cast my Democratic ballot in the ge if or when Obama wins the nomination.

There has been talk on both sides that if my candidate doesn't win, I'll vote Republican or I won't vote. That should make all real Democrats sick to their stomach. We all know what's at stake were McCain to win the election. More war, less healthcare, fewer jobs, and more corporate welfare. These are not only major Democratic issues but American issues as well.

Hilary has made statements lately against Obama that she should publicly apologize for. The fight should be about their differences, which are not much. If she does this, I have no problem with the campaign continuing until all the states have voted.

I think we should all step back and take a deep breath and realize this is the most important election in our lifetime. Besides, Democrats should stand for something much greater and noble than the dirty tricks that Republicans employ.

[Greyskye]

103. Well said.

And welcome to DU!

[happygoluckytoyou]

104. THIS is the post that matters...thank you

[lark]

128. If we are democrats

then why are disenfranchising the people of the state of FL? That's a basic value and it's just killing me to see it trampled. Nothing is more important than counting everyone's votes. Michigan is a little different since not all names were on the ballot, but they certainly were in FL.

[stop the bleeding]

165. yep

Welcome to DU - wow the 1st post.

[Kitty Herder]

83. You're right. I'm just disappointed because I hoped it would be over yesterday, that we would have

a presumptive nominee. I'm tired of this endless primary. I want us to stop fighting amongst ourselves and go after McCain.

[karynnj]

84. Nice post

I suspect that "what's wrong" is that this is the first "setback" that the Obama supporters have seen since SuperTuesday - and it was because it was easy to accept the ever decreasing Clinton expectations.

I know this happened to me on super Tuesday evening as well. SuperTuesday was as good as designed for HRC. There were 20+ contests, all on the same day. Some in the most expensive media markets ever. When this part of the schedule was first fixed, many complained that it would be bad for democracy, giving far too much weight to the candidate, with the most name recognition going in, the strongest fund raising ability, a husband who could get media coverage in the flicker of an eyelash, and who had the strongest media contacts. This was to make it impossible for anyone but the inevitable HRC. That was the expectation even in December 2003. But something happened on the way to that coronation.

In the excitement of the big Iowa and South Carolina wins, events that showed both Clintons in negative ways, and the wonderful events around his endorsement by first Senator Kerry and then Kennedy, the momentum led to exaggerated expectations. At the time this momentum started - about 3 or 4 weeks before SuperTuesday, HRC was routinely 20 points or more ahead in most of these states and in the national polls. In the excitement, there were expectations that Obama could surprise everyone and pull off upset after upset. That expectation caused me to feel let down when NY, NJ,MA and CA all went to HRC. It was a few days later before I could see that in fact, Obama had pulled off a stunning victory. He was still standing after SuperTuesday and he had won more delegates.

Not only that, the Clintons then set the expectations going forward. Obama, they said, will win all the remaining February contests, then HRC would catch up in March with major victories in Texas and Ohio. This was a very high bar for Obama. The CW set in that it would be a failure if he lost any - even though HRC was polling ahead in many of the states when it was said Obama had to win them. He actually exceeded even those expectations - winning all of them by at least 17%!

It was after the Nebraska, LA, and Washington results, that the issue of superdelegates using their "superior" judgment reared its ugly head. It was after the Potomac primaries that it became commonly discussed with people trying to explain why this could be fair and good for the party. In reality the size of the Obama victories had made it unlikely that HRC wins could let her surpass his delegate count. When she won the three states, that a month before she said she would win and win big, all by smaller margins than ANY of Obama's last 11 wins, parts of the media almost declared her the front runner! In fact, he still has a nearly prohibitive lead in pledged delegates.

Tuesday night, in an atypically thoughtful and serious comment, Chris Matthews spoke of how what we were seeing was not so much a shift in momentum necessarily - but that there were broadly 2 underlying groups of people voting in the Democratic party - and they were present in differing amount in various states. What we were seeing is the election moving geographically. (Rereading this I am conveying what he said poorly - but I don't think there's a transcript. Taking this a step further, Obama did better in the states that demographically favor HRC, than she did in the states that favor him. That this happened after a week where she attacked him with the "kitchen sink" takes me back to my feelings on SuperTuesday night.

I, like many Obama supporters, wanted our highest expectations met - we wanted what would have been major upset victories on Tuesday. The fact is that that misses the forest for the trees -just as my disappointment on SuperTuesday did. Then the important thing was that he was still standing, this time it was that she failed to gain a significant number of delegates. It also shows that there still is an establishment media bias in her favor. Notice that the coverage was similar to when the NYT called NH an upset victory - because she won by 2% a state where she had been 20 points ahead for a year and where she had most of the political establishment on her side, based on a set of polls a couple of days after the IA win.

[Inuca]

93. Great analysis!

It almost perfectly mirrors my own reactions after super Tuesday and after this most recent Tuesday as well. I am sure many others here and elsewhere also reacted in the very same way.

About the Matthews comment you reference in your before last paragraph: I heard it and liked it too (actually I think Matthews was unusually thoughtful and consistent in his comments on election night). He basically said that in his view the OH and TX (but primarily OH) results are NOT about a change in momentum or even less "buyer's remorse", but instead, as you said, it's mostly about the different demographics voting democrat, and the way they are represented in various states. In other words, OH would have voted more or less the same way had the vote occurred at a different time. He also remarked that this whole momentum thing (and much of the commentaries and so called analysis from the punditocracy) is mostly a consequence of the primary calendar, and not much else.

[karynnj]

122. Thanks for restating the Matthews comments

I couldn't remember as many details - and liked you I really liked the fact that it was intelligent commentary.

[sunnystarr]

123. Excellent post!! nt

[Lena inRI]

85. Well -written and FACTUAL. . .

. . .the "troops" need synchronizing periodically.

But I would like to add: (could you pass it on to Senator Obama)

---For every incorrect "fact" from Hillary, Barack retorts with the FACTS by direct, prompt, media answers to Hillary, not the nebulous "press" or "her campaign manager." Keep her PUBLICALLY accountable for all misinformation about Barack.

---for every racial, Muslim innuendo that Hillary disassociates herself from, ask her publically to denounce them along with you in the spirit of equanimity.

"The truth (FACTS) will set you free."

The smearing of Barack's race, or Muslim heritage says nothing about Barack, all about Hillary if she doesn't denounce publically the racial/ethnic smear tactics.

Jeez, McCain has spoken for "decent" campaigning more than Hillary! Who woulda thunk!

:grouphug: :grouphug: :grouphug: :grouphug: :grouphug:

[Infinite Hope]

87. Exactly. Look at it positively...he's getting needed training for the general election

as she forces him to toughen up a bit.

[OwnedByFerrets]

89. K & R

[NorthCarolina]

94. Republican Crossover Voting Pushed Hillary's Numbers Up

but will these same Republicans who voted for her in the primaries STILL turn out for her in the GE?? I think not.

[lark]

130. So her votes in red states don't matter

but his do? Nebraska, Montana, Utah are not going to go for him either, just like Texas won't go for Clinton. Clinton is doing better in the states that will actually break Democratic.

[Scriptor Ignotus]

95. some Dems just don't have any backbone

look at Congress. look at the posts on DU yesterday. It's sad, but we have to soldier on.

K&R.

[info being]

98. If the press and party insiders want Hillary, then Hillary it will be

We can't blame Obama supporters for naively believing they live in a democracy. They are going to have to learn what the rest of us already know, the hard way.

Can you imagine the entire Secret Service guarding the Obamas? Can you imagine the military establishment taking him seriously? Can you really imagine that they'll let him become President?

I don't think it can be.

[greyghost]

107. It won't ,Hillary is the next president. PERIOD. They can take that

to what's left of their bank.

TPTB have ordained it, so it will be.

They don't give a fuck about disenfranchising Obama supporters.

[lark]

131. Obama supporters are fine with disenfranchising

as long as it's other people's voters that are in that category. Sad.

[IsItJustMe]

99. Not a true blue Obama supporter; but I do have a problem with hypocrits that will say

anything to win an election, and will destroy her own party in the process and make it imposible for Obama to win in the general election.

To answer your question then, those are my problems.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

100. bingo, and recc'd

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

101. I think most of us know it's over . . . for Hillary!

[greyghost]

110. Not so much.

[Greyskye]

102. Happy to give the 100th Rec

:kick:

And above all everybody, please remember:

[taught_me_patience]

108. A little burnt out right now.

No need to rally hard now because we don't want to peak too soon. Check back in 2-3 weeks and we'll be guns blazing again.

K&R!

[TBF]

111. I wish I had enough posts to recommend you!

I think some of us (well, me anyway) freaked out when she hinted that Barack could be her VP. You are right - it doesn't matter that the press is back to being under her thumb. Obama is way ahead in delegates and I still believe in a place called Hope as well (as long as there are no Clintons there!). Thank you for putting it more eloquently, and reminding us this isn't over by a longshot.

In fact, as a proud Texan I can tell you Obama DID win here. For some reason they don't want to count the caucus, but it is 1/3 of our delegates and we will be counted. I know the numbers aren't official yet, but by all local accounts he did very well in that part of the contest.

[cameozalaznick]

112. I didn't give up

Instead, I made another donation to his campaign yesterday.

[Barack_America]

118. Hells no! I ain't giving up!

Shit, I'm in Philly, so I don't even have TIME to give up!

Headed over to headquarters in an hour or so, as a matter of fact.

[Seabiscuit]

119. Faulty premise again: Hillary could get the nomination without any more wins.

Neither candidate can now get to the magic number of delegates needed to clinch the nomination before the convention. There is no rule that says the candidate with the most delegates wins in this situation. You can protest, wish, and whine all you want, it's not going to change anything.

So this tight race is going to the convention and that's where it will be decided. Period. End of story.

It will be decided by (1) the superdelegates, (2) the DNC's final decision re: Florida and Michigan, and (3) possibly even John Edwards' delegates if it's that close.

So get over your delusions about delegate numbers. You're just going to make yourselves miserable when you wake up to the reality of how the rules work.

[Inuca]

133. If

it is giong to be decided by the SDs, we will ALL BE MISERABLE, Obama and Clinton supporters together, because the whole thing will go to hell in a handbasket, you can count on that.

[kwenu]

139. We are well aware of the rules but he won't need very many superdelgates to get to the nomination.

[Seabiscuit]

140. She doesn't need many either.

So forget about the pledged delegates. At this point they're a wash. Hillary could lose every state through June and still win the nomination. So could Obama.

[kwenu]

141. STOP FOOLING YOURSELF. Obama has about 150 more pledged delegates

He'll be back to 160 by next Tuesday. At the rate Clinton is leaking SDs Obama will be the nominee by June.

[Seabiscuit]

148. Nonsense. That was an inflated figure BEFORE Tuesday.

You've allowed your giddiness for your candidate get the better of you, and it has filled your mind with mush.

[kwenu]

166. Okay. What do you think it is then?

[Seabiscuit]

182. It's 80-89, depending on who you want to believe.

[kwenu]

185. I haven't heard anybody claim the lead was that small. That's a bad case of denial on your part.

[mculator]

120. Would you be down with Hillary as VP?

[TBF]

134. Nope, no Hillary as VP -

but I'm down with Edwards or Richardson as VP. Either bring us fantastic supporters and I just really like both of those guys. Hillary would bring us down in the general (moderates hate her).

[kwenu]

142. I'd leave it up to Obama. But Obama definitely WON'T be VP!!!!!!!!!

[BearSquirrel2]

179. She burned that bridge ...

No, Hillary is not acceptable now as a running mate. She told everyone John McCain was more qualified the Barak in terms of experience. How can you have your own running mate endorsing your opponent?

If she wants a future in the Democratic party, she'll get out ASAP.

[lark]

121. Disenfranchising the people of the state of Fl

is not the democratic way to win. We had every single candidate on the ballot and the state choose Clinton, but because of some stupid made up rules, you are fine with not counting our votes? You know damn well that if the shoe was on the other foot, you would be raising holy hell to have the votes counted for Obama. This is really pissing me off. I'm a yellow dog type Dem, have never even considered voting any other way, but don't know if I could vote for any candidate who did not have the rock solid value of counting every single solitary vote. That's just so Rovian I absolutely can't stand it. Please don't disenfranchise the people from the state of FL, just because your candidate didn't do as well as Hillary. By the way, I didn't even vote for her, I voted for Edwards, however one has to have values and Obama is showing his total lack of them by advocating discarding all the people's votes from FL. That's just disgusting and disreputable and makes me want to stay home if he's the candidate. By the way, I know lots and lots of activist, progressive Dems here who feel the same way. We're a distinct minority in No. FL., so have banded together.

lark

[sunnystarr]

So if Hillary had won the nomination on Super Tuesday

and was proclaimed to be the Democratic candidate for the GE, then you're saying that all Dem candidates need to continue campaigning and raising big bucks to saturate the next scheduled primariy states so that voters in the states that hadn't had their primary wouldn't be disenfranchised?? You're saying that FL and MI voters are more important than say PA? or the voters in Puerto Rico? This isn't a general election this is primary season and like it or not many voters in many states don't get to have a say once the required delegate votes are in to carry a candidate over the top. Which confirms one thing ... it's the number of delegates that's important not one person one vote when choosing our nominee. If Hillary had won the nomination on Super Tuesday do you really think she'd be calling for a new primary in FL and MI??? I didn't think so!

[Capn Sunshine]

138. So, you'll accept the results of an ACTUAL re vote?

somehow, I doubt that.

[greyghost]

145. No worries, the DNC is not going to disenfranchise TWO states.

[kwenu]

149. I CALL BS ON FLORIDA DEM LEADERS!!!!!!!

I've gone back and read all the articles when Florida was considering moving its primary and the Democratic and Republican Party leaders we're in COMPLETE AGREEMENT with moving the primary despite the threat of losing all delegates. THERE WERE NO DEMOCRATIC LEADERS OPENLY COMPLAINING ABOUT IT THEN. DON'T COMPLAIN NOW!!!!!

I'm sorry about the voters but the voters need to punish the Florida party LEADERS that the voters ELECTED to make decisions for FLORIDA.



http://www.fladems.com/content/w/floridas_us_senators_cross_aisle_to_stress_importance_of_disputed_florida_v

[NOLALady]

124. K & R

[the grey area]

127. You are absolutely right...I have allowed this to hurt my feelings too much

Let's continue the movement.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

129. Hillary wins with TRUE Democrats...Obama wins only with Retguglican votes...end of your fairytale

[Inuca]

132. Even assuming for a moment that you are right

there is also that little thing called the GE....

[greyghost]

144. Already decided, Hillary Clinton is the 44th. President of the USA

TPTB have ordained it, so it will be.

[D23MIURG23]

175. They seem to be a little off their game this time.

[Capn Sunshine]

137. and yet, Hillary won Texas by 100,000 republican crossover votes

Oh, I forgot, that's different.
:eyes:

[kwenu]

143. This is such a vicious thing to say. Why are Hillary supporters so MEAN!!!!

[D23MIURG23]

174. As opposed to all of us fake ones ...

...who don't let the DLC pic our candidates?

[BearSquirrel2]

180. I'm sure that's why she has Rush Limbaugh's endorsement ...

Rush Limbaugh has endorsed her for the Democratic race. What more do you have to know about how "true" everyone is who is voting for her?

[thoughtcrime1984]

135. OBAMA WILL BE THE NOMINEE

The road is just a bit longer now. The true vetting of Hillary is beginning, and there are no worries.

[greyghost]

146. Yes, as VP.

[thoughtcrime1984]

156. Wrong

With more delegates, he will be President. Hil will be in the Senate.

[greyghost]

157. No my friend, you are wrong about to learn a valuable lesson.

TPTB decided that Hillary will be president, just like they did with Chimpy McFlightsuit. There is no other out come.

[kwenu]

136. THANKS. OBAMA SUPPORTERS AREN'T GOING ANYWHERE EXCEPT TO HIS INAUGURATION!!!!

[greyghost]

147. As VP.

[writes3000]

150. The latest tide of Superdelegates seem to disagree. Obama will be President.

[greyghost]

152. No, math means nothing when the out come is preordained.

TPTB decided months ago that Hillary would be president. Just like they did with Bush. That is the only reality.

[TBF]

163. Hillary's only chance is with Obama as VP -

because many of Obama's supporters will still vote for him that way. Hillary cannot capture independents on her own.

Obama, on the other hand, can run with whomever he chooses. I hope he retains his lead and picks someone like Richardson or Edwards to run with him. He doesn't need Hillary to defeat McCain, and I really hope he doesn't give in to the old party guard and do that. He is young and could wait until 2012 if he has to. Why taint his image with her?

[Bright Eyes]

151. Yes, she won fair and square...

(although, as someone else said, she may loose Texas.).

Her tactics are still despicable.

[RiverStone]

153. Great post --- I have been saying much of the same...

Even passing out the delegate calculator at Slate.com so folks can do the math themselves.

I ran into a few Obama supporters that bought into the media bullshit, but most have calmed down and see the light of reason now. I think folks were on a high for so long, that they forgot the primaries is a roller coaster.

Yes, Obama already has the pledged delegates locked up. Some folks are fishing the deep blue sea for any scandal that will upset the balance (i.e. Canada NAFTA bs) - the Obama camp better keep the radar going 24/7 because the only thing that could upset things is a surprise shocker - and folks are probably interviewing his grade school teachers to see if he cut in the lunch line.

[backscatter712]

159. Getting back on the horse...

Everybody gets thrown sooner or later.

[think4yourself]

160. Great Post!

Keep the faith.

Peace.

[spiritual_gunfighter]

161. Great Post!!!!

I am new here, what does K&R mean?

[wildflowergardener]

168. K&R

Kick and Recommend, if no-one has answered.

Meg

[byronius]

171. "Kicked And Recommended."

Kicking is what you did by replying; it 'kicks' the post back up to the top of the forum. "Recommend" is to click the little button that recommends the post for the greatest page.

Welcome to DU. It's, like, the center of my universe. All roads flow from here. Super-fast news, vetted news (ie, non-right-wing spin), and very informative personal opinion. Always gets hot around primary season. I don't bother fighting with like minds, myself. I'm just waiting til the votes are counted.

[angiesues]

162. I hope you're wrong

for the party and our country, we don't need another Carter presidency.

[shireen]

181. What we don't need is another Reagan or Bush presidency!

Carter is underrated as a president. He tried to do a lot of good things. Too bad the country wasn't paying enough attention to him or we'd be a very different place today, energy-wise.

Unfortunately, Iran happened. Then Reagan came along and fooled everyone for another 8 years, then Poppy, then Big Dawg, then Idiot-in-Chief. Enough already!

[parkeradison]

164. regarding "what is wrong with you"

Optimism is always good, but the reality is that the Clintons don't care about the logic and fairness of the math. They will do whatever it takes, including "pulling strings", giving favors, applying pressure and just about anything else. And, their political machine has connections in high places. So, hang on for a discomforting political ride.

[Warbler]

167. It's Rush's Fault

[4_Legs_Good]

169. Temprary disappointment is all...

at least from me. What happened Tuesday was exactly what I had expected, but not what I had hoped. I like it when what I hope happen happens!

I'm not discouraged, on her best day (since Super Tuesday)/Firewall she netted probably 1/2 of what Obama netted with Hawaii and Wisconsin. If Obama's numbers are right, she netted 1/2 of what he netted in Hawaii.

You're right, it's just bragging rights. Let's regain that momentum this week and we'll just look back on March 4 as a minor hiccup on the road to the White House.

Ready to go!

David

[mirrera]

173. EXACTLY!!!!! Thanks...n/t

[PATRICK]

177. To add to this common sense and wisdom

I might say Hillary is doing many obama supporters a big favor. it highlights exactly the political waters every enthusiast always thinks he can dance across. The vast populace cannot be relied on to catch the mania, vote en masse, suddenly adopt a quality group mind. The young Kennedys were godlike oratorical spokespersons of Democratic, visionary ideals. They never had an easy path, a coronation by obvious quality. Hard primary fights especially. A razor close election with the godforsaken repugnant Nixon, influenced heavily on both sides by cheating and mis-perception. The current political landscape is more myopic, harder to penetrate for Democrats, more dominated by big money and establishment spin.

The reality of what must be done in office is even more daunting, more limited, more dangerous, perhaps even more dangerous than the Cuban Missile Crisis. Adopting the fanaticism and wide eyed burbling and antagonisms of the other side who must substitute fantasy for truth is far worse than getting cut up by the Clinton campaign.

Learn and be thankful it is now and not November, because learning then will cost all of us plenty. Hang on. You have won for all intents and purposes. Why be afraid that winning takes such effort? it can make you stronger, wiser, more experienced, more rationally humble. All things that the present GOP and the GOP leaners in the Dem party cannot ever be. Follow your candidate's calm, thoughtful lead. Hopefully his own leadership will be all the less encumbered by the delusions that an easy seeming popular wave can create. I think it will. If it educates him more, finally, about the treacherous landscape of the news forums and Bush allies it will put everything into the light that should never be glossed over or tolerated.

Now for one example. Obama's mention of Reagan, the GOP card if you will, was philosophically harmless and politically brilliant. It touched the ground a lot of residually decent GOP faithful cling to, the true middle ground(no matter how falsely achieved) that caused party lines to be crossed. Hillary brilliantly played the McCain card against Obama but in ways that completely highlight their readiness to lead and competence and true Democratic principles. Hillary jumped the Joe Lieberman shark to do it against an opponent we have to face in November. No philosophy, no hedging, no real appeal to the GOP but to Independents not sealed yet in the McCain legendary fog. It was despicable and disastrous in ways that Obama's comments were not. It was a mark of sheer desperation and the need to damage Obama at the cost of damaging her already fatally wounded premise as a standard bearer.

You can be frustrated that no one has reined in the losers, that this ploy is not the rational deal making her remaining clout should dictate, that the party is shooting its best foot forward so it might be forced to rely on the lame foot. Well, let the Clinton big guns expend themselves instead of entrenching what they have left. All the more total then the Obama consolidation of power without having to deal with them or be forced to put her on the ticket.

Most of all come down to earth. In reality you will be given the brief space of a victory party here and there and then face daunting, unstinting work in tasks that make the resistance by Clinton and the polls a very typical lesson. In the long run it may help all of us simply to survive.

[BearSquirrel2]

178. She's not trying to win a plurality ...

She isn't trying to win a plurality at this point. She's trying to deny Obama a majority. If this happens the convention will be brokered and she'll try to bully her way into the nomination.

[Imagevision]

184. Hey! we pick ourselves up - dust ourselves off, the bitch is not winning..$$$ ka-ching!

We just have to get tougher, ->experience?! like the kind Rumsfeld, Cheney and Bush have, got to get tougher, got to try harder!

[dailykoff]

186. What's with all these shame-on-you posts?

I haven't seen anything that warrants three fricken nag threads.

[mcollier]

187. Impeach Senator Clinton!

Impeach Senator Clinton!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080305.wharpleak0305/BNStory/National/home

Send, post, share the Hillary Clinton NAFTA hipocracy to as many news organazations, blogs, co-workers, family, friends, your senators and congress persons... Forget about the rethugs and clintonites attempts here trying to defend her on this.... We need to stick to message: The era of old politics is our choice, this is the change we can believe in.

Clinton cannot be trusted, she isn't even president and she is already defaming America in the eyes of the world with this shamefully action.

Vote for someone you can trust, vote for Barack Obama.

[dailykoff]

188. Now we're talking.

Welcome mcollier! :hi:

[ShaWee]

189. Hillary is being rocked

Obama is destroying her and she should drop out soon. Her winning should not even be considered. If you can't stick with Obama when he's winning by a lot then how could you if it ever became a close race?