Mississippi preview: Obama and Clinton demographic strongholds

[usregimechange]

Mississippi (03/11/2008 - 40 delegates)
Persons of Hispanic or Latino origin, percent, 2006: 1.8% - Much less than the national average = ++Obama
Black persons, percent, 2006: 37.1% (2nd highest in US) - Much higher than the national average = ++Obama
Persons 65 years old and over, percent, 2006: 12.4% - Tied with national average = No advantage
Bachelor's degree or higher, pct of persons age 25+, 2000: 16.9% - Less than national average = +Clinton
(Overall advantage: +++Obama)
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/28000.html


Obama Strongholds:


Hinds County (Jackson urban vote) is 65.9% Black, fewer 65+ elderly voters and is more educated with 27.2% with a Bachelors degree or higher.

Lafayette County (home of Ole Miss) is one the three intellectual havens of Mississippi - it is highly educated compared of the state with 31.1% of the population with a Bachelors degree or higher.

Madison County (North Jackson suburbs) the other intellectual oasis of Mississippi has 37.9% of the population with a Bachelor's degree or higher. Interestingly Hillary is campaigning here soon at the Jefferson Jackson Hamer Day Dinner. I am not sure why as the demographics do not favor her.

Oktibbeha County (home of Mississippi State University) is also highly educated and has less than 10% of individuals who are 65+ years old.

High African American western rural counties along the Mississippi river such as Claiborne County (84.6% Black), Holmes County (80.9%), Jefferson County (85.9%). There are a few in the east like Noxubee County.

Mississippi African American County Population Map



Clinton Strongholds:


Harrison County (Gulfport and Biloxi) and Jackson County are two coastal counties with high white populations (more than 70%).

DeSoto County (Memphis suburbs) has almost 80% white voters that are mostly not well educated but this may be a battleground as it also is wealthy and has fewer elderly citizens. This is a big Republican county which went to Bush by 72% in 2004.

Lee county (Tupelo) is mostly white (71%) and Bill Clinton will be campaign there soon.

Rural eastern Mississippi counties like Tishomingo County (95.4% white, old, low income, and less educated) and Itawamba County (92.5% white, less educated, and has more elderly).


Mississippi Population Map:



Mississippi 2004 Election Results by County:



Mississippi 2006 Election Results by County:





http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/Seth77

[bluestateguy]

1. There is one good thing about this standoff

And that is that it is forcing our candidates to campaign all over the nation in states that otherwise might be ignored all together in the campaign.

I actually think that Obama could take Mississippi in the fall IF there is an exceptionally high turnout of black voters and if he could get 25% of the white vote, which would have to come from mostly young white people.

[usregimechange]

3. College towns could swing to him. I agree.

[meow mix]

5. i know more about every american neighborhood then i ever wanted to, lol

thanks to this primary

[dsc]

19. Rush Limbaugh has a better chance of winning the Boston Marathon

than any Democrat has of winning MS in the general election.

[usregimechange]

20. I agree it would be very difficult but not impossible

[meow mix]

2. hillarys strongholds are republican areas.. not much gain for her there

this could be a blowout for obama

[usregimechange]

4. In Mississippi that is true because they are the white counties.

[Sherman A1]

6. Question

Do You anticipate any Katrina effect?

[WheresMyVoice]

7. Your flashy graphics, Mr. Obama man, don't take into account Hill's win in RI

Got a graphic for THAT?

[usregimechange]

10. What the hell?

[Name removed]

8. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[grantcart]

9. good job as always

does anybody know how the delegates are distributed

33 delegates in the primary right? could be bigger pickup than 3/5 was for Hillary lol

[KoKo]

12. .oops.

[mohc]

11. Some other info

CD1 has 5 delegates, and blacks make up 26.3% of the population
CD2 has 7 delegates, and blacks make up 63.5% of the population
CD3 has 5 delegates, and blacks make up 33.3% of the population
CD4 has 5 delegates, and blacks make up 22.3% of the population

And these percentages will be inflated in the primary. Whites are far more likely to be Republican, and blacks far more likely to be Democratic, than in the population at large. In 2004, only 14% of whites voted for Kerry, while 90% of blacks did. It is an open primary, so we could see some Republicans crossing over, but it is unlikely that it will be a large enough percentage to matter. In a 5 delegate district, one must receive more than 70% of the vote to split 4-1, and must get more than 85% to make it 5-0. The 5 delegate districts have a smaller black percentage so they will likely just go 3-2 for whomever wins the district. CD1 and CD3 will almost certainly go for Obama, even if by a small margin. Clinton has a shot at CD4, but Obama would still be favored. In a 7 delegate district one must get over 64.3% to split 5-2 and over 78.6% to split 6-1, and again 85% is needed to win all delegates. Obama will probably win 6-1, worst case 5-2. Statewide there are 4 PLEO delegates, a candidate would need 62.5% statewide to split 3-1, so this will either be 2-2 or 3-1 for Obama. There are 7 at-large delegates as well, and the splits here are the same as above for the 7 delegate district. Even in a worst case scenario this would be 4-3 for Obama, but he certainly could get 5-2.

So my completely unreliable predictions would be:
CD1: 3 - 2 Obama
CD2: 6 - 1 Obama
CD3: 3 - 2 Obama
CD4: 3 - 2 Obama
PLEO: 2 - 2
At-large: 5 - 2 Obama
Total: 22 - 11 Obama

[Altair]

13. The Obama campaign projects winning Mississippi 20-13

[mohc]

14. Most likely

They see the At-large going 4-3 instead of 5-2, which would cause the results they are predicting. If the statewide vote is 50-64%, then it will indeed split 4-3. 60% may be a safer target, but I believe Obama is going to be able to top 64% in Mississippi.

[City Lights]

15. Mississippi has an open primary, right?

And the GOP race is over. They have nothing to do now but mess with ours.

[southern_dem]

16. Yes

You chose which ballot you want at the poll.

[usregimechange]

17. Yep they will be crossing over for a number of reasons and motivations... scary

[usregimechange]

18. Any polls done on this race yet?

[Rowdyboy]

21. Great analysis! Thanks....Senator Clinton is speaking right now about 5 miles from here

at the Jefferson Jackson dinner in Madison county

[usregimechange]

22. Where abouts?

[Rowdyboy]

23. I edited my last post after you replied.....she's speaking a few miles from here at the

Madison county complex just outside of Canton Mississippi. All last week there were rumors that Obama would be here tonight but yesterday it was announced that Clinton was coming instead. Unfortunately it was a dinner costing $125 a ticket do we passed. Still its nice to know the state is aknowledged.

[usregimechange]

24. kicking

[usregimechange]

25. Poll: Mississippi: Obama 53% Clinton 39%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/mississippi/mississippi_democratic_presidential_primary

[usregimechange]

26. Interestingly Harrison County (gulfport, biloxi) has a higher population density than Hinds Co

Hinds co is the Jackson metropolitan area.