Latest poll shows Hillary would be our strongest candidate against McCain

[Apollo11]

I have seen a lot of people here on DU saying that only Obama can win in November and so if Hillary were to be the nominee, we would be "SCREWN" (i.e. John McCain would cruise to an easy victory).

I have been looking in various places for recent polls that compare how Hillary and Obama would perform in the general election against John McCain. The only updated polls I could find are the rolling polls from Rasmussen Reports. The pattern since Feb 5th is very interesting.

Around 3 weeks ago (mid-February), Obama was beating McCain by up to 8 points. Hillary was losing to McCain by up to 6 points. So it was looking like only Obama could beat McCain!

But now, McCain beats Obama by 5 points, but Hillary is almost tied with McCain. So maybe Hillary is the strongest candidate to go up against John McCain? :eyes:

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history

This information has been posted here already during the past few days but still a lot of folks seem to believe that Hillary cannot beat McCain. So the point of this thread is to let folks know that Hillary's numbers have been improving over recent days, leading up to March 4th.

I know Obama has more pledged delegates and it's very hard to see how Hillary could catch him. But the fact is that neither can become the nominee without the support of superdelegates. I expect that the SDs will take a number of factors into consideration, including the results of national opinion polls.

It will be interesting to see the results of polls done after March 5th. If Hillary's numbers continue to improve, it will undermine Obama's claim that he is the most electable candidate.

[MadBadger]

1. You cant use one poll to try and prove your point

The RCP average shows Obama up 4.2, and Hillary down .2

http://realclearpolitics.com/

[Apollo11]

2. Rasmussen is a rolling poll, and therefore the most up-to-date.

Even if Rasmussen has a built-in bias, it's difficult to see how that would account for the shift in numbers since the middle of February. Unless they were pro-Obama back then and anti-Obama now.

[Hepburn]

12. It's a REPUBLICAN poll

....but, then, the Pubbies are the one who want to run against the Queen, so it figures that a Pubbie pollster would promote her.

A Hillary nomination? Say, "Hello, President McCain."

[Saturday]

4. What do you mean you can't use 1 poll?

Obama supporters do it ALL THE TIME and present it as the only truth.

[Arkansas Granny]

7. I also watch RCP because of the averages they post. What I've

noticed over the last several days is a change in the momentum and Hillary seems to be gaining ground on both Obama and McCain. We will just have to continue watching and see if this trend continues.

[MadBadger]

9. Obama has maintained himself at around 47% in the avreage. Hillary is gaining on McCain

[rodeodance]

30. yes she can.

[MadBadger]

36. delete

[Kahuna]

3. Interesting. Not only is hillary running down Obama's numbers with her

nasty campaign. She's running down her own too. :rofl:

Seriously though. This is just what the Democrats don't need. By the time the general rolls around, neither of our candidates will be worth a damn.

[Apollo11]

5. Not really. Hillary's numbers are on the way up!

Look again at their numbers against McCain since mid-February.

Obama's numbers have gone down from 46 to 43.

Hillary's numbers have gone up from 41 to 45.

It's what we math experts call "a trend" B-)

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history

[IsItJustMe]

23. The power of negative campaigning works pretty good, don't it? Another low ball commercial could

come out tomorrow and change those numbers yet again. I think it's in the hands of the voters.

[earthlover]

6. pollingreports.com shows several polls in their "general election" section

comparing hillary to mccain and comparing obama to mccain. Every one of them, last I checked, had obama doing better against mccain than hillary does. Rassmussen is the first for Hillary recently.

McCain is doing better recently. Maybe the negative campaigning of Hillary is helping McCain.

[Apollo11]

8. All those other polls were published last month

I also checked realclearpolitics.

www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

[Apollo11]

10. Kick

:kick:

[Apollo11]

11. Kick

:kick:

[jefferson_dem]

13. This one out yesterday shows Obama beating McCain by 12 while Hillary beats him by only 6.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080306/pl_nm/usa_politics_poll_dc_1&printer=1

[Apollo11]

14. Thanks, I hadn't seen that one.

It is also worth looking at when the polling was carried out:

The random telephone poll of 1,126 adults was taken February 28 through March 2 and has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

I guess over the coming weeks we will get a clearer picture of how the candidates are doing.

[earthlover]

15. Since Hillary is saying her buddy McCain is better than Obama....I think McCain will do better

[Apollo11]

16. Hillary is saying that McCain will point to his lifetime of experience

It's a fact that John McCain has served 23 years in the US Navy plus 25 years in the US Congress.

It would be naive to pretend that John McCain will not highlight his lifetime of experience.

Hillary has never said that McCain would make a better President than Barack Obama.

She has been talking about who would have the best shot against John McCain in November.

[earthlover]

18. No, please be honest. Hillary, not McCain, said McCain had a lifetime of experience, Obama speech

She was not saying mcCain was going to say that. She said that.

She was saying that the only thing Obama has is one speech. What a load! And she was rhapsodizing about McCain's lifetime of experience.

She shouldn't be making McCain's points for him. If Obama is the nominee, McCain will use that Hillary quote over and over and over again. McCain will also use his experienc against Hillary if she is the nominee, don't think he won't! Hillary really hurt the party with that one.

And she is talking about a joint ticket.....seems to me she painted herself into a corner both ways

[IsItJustMe]

24. Like hair splitting? She was wrong to say what she said. PERIOD. Spin that.

[Apollo11]

17. I sure could use a couple more rec's!

Anyone? :eyes:

:kick:

[LostinVA]

19. Here's a K&R!

[catgirl]

20. Obama + 12 points over McCain, Hillary + 6

Washington Post/ABC poll

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/05/AR2008030502646.html

[Apollo11]

22. But that poll was done a few days back

It's right there in the Washington Post article:

"A total of 1,126 randomly selected adults were interviewed by telephone Feb. 28 through March 2. The results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points."

[Yes We Did]

27. I'm sick of polls. I don't like any of them.

[Apollo11]

29. Some of us feel the same way about caucuses

Am I right? ;-)

[high density]

44. "A few days back." P.S.: The election is in NOVEMBER

I fail to see what makes your poll from a few days later any more valid than hers when we're talking about something eight months in the future.

Jeeze.

[ananda]

21. I find this kinda funny because..

McCain is gonna LOSE to any DEM!!!!

[Apollo11]

25. I hope you're right!

:kick:

[smiley_glad_hands]

26. Obama still beats him in the poll you cited.

Stop using strained arguments, your candidate cannot win. Drop. Out. Now.

[Apollo11]

28. Nope. The latest numbers are McCain 48 - Obama 43.

Back in mid-February it was McCain 41 - Obama 49!

If you don't believe me, go back and follow the link in the OP.

[Apollo11]

43. Update: Today's numbers are McCain 46 - Obama 44

They still have Hillary just one point behind McCain.

Both are well within the margin of error - so basically a tie.

I don't believe any poll that shows McCain losing by 10 points.

Either way, it will be a tough battle in the fall.

[Apollo11]

31. I see this thread has already sparked a tribute from the pro-Obama camp!

The thing is, I am not really interested in pumping up Hillary's candidacy.

I am interested in letting folks know that Hillary's numbers are better now than they were 3 weeks back.

A lot of folks seem to be basing their opinions on the assumption that only Obama can beat McCain.

I see it as a public service to bring this information to people's attention.

I hope that whoever is the Democratic nominee will wind up winning in November! B-)

[Apollo11]

32. Kick

:kick:

[Apollo11]

33. Kick

:kick:

[ElsewheresDaughter]

34. only reason Obama has those delegates is because of crossover 1 time Rethug votes

[aquart]

35. The DEMOCRAT will win in November.

Electibility has been a phony issue from the start.

But don't expect the Koolaid drinkers to believe any poll that goes against them. The cult does not tolerate or accept any form of doubt.

[Justitia]

37. LOL - yeah, 'cuz she's going to get that rabid, Clinton hating, republican crossover vote! -eom

[MadBadger]

38. See this is where your argument gets you: Obama today loses by 2, and Clinton by 1

[Apollo11]

39. You're right. They update the numbers every day.

Today's numbers are showing it will be a close race in either case.

But my basic point remains valid, which is that if you look at the most recent polling evidence, there is no basis for saying (as many here on DU have done) that only Obama can beat McCain.

:kick:

[Vinca]

40. Today's Washington Post poll was just the opposite.

Hillary beats him by 4, Barack beats him by 12.

[amborin]

41. super delegates are sticking with Clinton

no more moving to obama

the american idol candidate has been revealed

[OzarkDem]

42. Please don't confuse them with facts

Their heads will begin exploding any minute, now.

[DemBones DemBones]

45. . . .

:rofl:

Oh, the wailing and gnashing of teeth that will go on here the night they take Obama down!

[OzarkDem]

46. About three fourths of them

will run back to the web site that shall not be named.