Pennsylvania: Far from a treasure trove of delegates for Hillary

[ButterflyBlood]

This is the next state that Hillary supporters like to talk about and look at, but frankly, even if Hillary's favored, it's not going to give her a huge boost. In fact, Obama could very well cancel out Pennsylvania's margin with Wyoming!

Let's look at each district. Pennsylvania has 103 delegates allocated by district and 55 at large.:

PA-1: 7 delegates. Pretty damn close to majority black but Hillary should do well among whites. Obama is still certain to win, but whether he gets 4 or 5 delegates is a turnout battle. I'll be kind to Hillary and assume it's 4-3 Obama.
PA-2: 9 delegates. 61% black, and the whites here are much more unfriendly to Hillary. This district is simply brutal for her. 7-2 Obama.
PA-3: 5 delegates. This is a good district for Hillary. 3-2 Hillary.
PA-4: 5 delegates. Another good district for Hillary. 3-2 Hillary.
PA-5: 4 delegates. Hillary should win most of the district, but she has a severe problem with it containing Penn State. No one will win enough to win more than 2 delegates apeice.
PA-6: 6 delegates. The parts of this district that demographically favor Obama vote Democratic. The parts that demographically favor Hillary vote Republican. Obama stands a damn good shot of doing well enough to win 4 delegates to her 2, but I'll be generous and call it a tie.
PA-7: 7 delegates. Very good district for Obama. 4-3 Obama.
PA-8: 7 delegates. Same deal. 4-3 Obama.
PA-9: 3 delegates. This is a good district for Hillary, but with 3 delegates margin doesn't matter. 2-1 Hillary.
PA-10: 4 delegates. Can Hillary break 62.5% here? It's worth noting that she only barely got around that in the parts of New York bordering the district where she got a bounce no doubt. But in this I'm always giving her the benefit of the doubt. 3-1 Hillary.
PA-11: 5 delegates. Good territory for Hillary. 3-2 Hillary.
PA-12: 5 delegates. Also good territory for Hillary. 3-2 Hillary.
PA-13: 7 delegates. This district isn't overwhelmingly favorable to Obama, but it's tough to see how he loses. 4-3 Obama.
PA-14: 7 delegates. This is a tossup. Almost 24% black, but Hillary should do very well among whites. Frankly you might as well flip a coin to see how it votes, but I'm being kind to Hillary. 4-3 Hillary.
PA-15: 5 delegates. This district is changing, but still good for Hillary at this moment. 3-2 Hillary.
PA-16: 4 delegates. Hillary favored probably, but it's only 4 delegates. It'll split.
PA-17: 4 delegates. This is probably the blackest rural district outside of the south. It's 12.4% black, and the whites are mostly Republican, so the percentage of the black voters in the primary is larger. Flip a coin to see who wins, but it really doesn't matter due to the even number of delegates.
PA-18: 5 delegates. I could see a case for Obama here, but Hillary still favored. 3-2 Hillary.
PA-19: 4 delegates. Another 4 delegate district with 2 apeice.

Total? 52 delegates for Hillary and 51 for Obama. Now the 55 at large. I'm going to continue being generous to Hillary and assume she has a 10 point victory. 55% gives her 30 delegates to Obama's 25. That's a total victory over Obama of 6 delegates.

Put simply, don't count on PA to put a massive dent in Obama's lead.

[tekisui]

1. ANd her lead is single digits with 6 weeks of campaigning.

[jlake]

28. Her lead is 15 points.... and growing daily. Expect a 70/30 blowout for Hilly!

[Occam Bandage]

31. Anything less would be a step away from the nomination--just like March 4 was.

[totodeinhere]

34. You can't honestly believe that can you?

[jlake]

36. Yes. I don't have false hopes....like so many cultists.

[totodeinhere]

37. 70-30 will never happen in a million years.

Clinton could very well win Pennsylvania. She might even win by a wide margin, although I doubt it. But she absolutely won't win it 70-30. When you make such an outlandish prediction you lose all credibility.

[jlake]

38. How about this.... I secretly think she'll win 80 to his 17-18

Rezko trial will be in full swing.... he may miss a few days of campaigning to appear in court.

[DLnyc]

41. Really? Even though it has been reported REPEATEDLY that the trial does not

involve Obama in any way? I understand being optimistic. But no candidate has won anything by anything like 80% since these primaries began, as far as I know. Still, to be fair, nothing is impossible. Highly unlikely, yes, but strictly speaking, not impossible.

[ButterflyBlood]

43. The attacks on Obama over Rezko are as pathetic as Ken Starr's actions

And just as despicable. Any attempt to link Obama to Rezko's criminal actions is about as valid and logic-based as the 8 year witchhunt the Repukes did over the Clintons.

[hogwyld]

50. Of course, we political junkies know this

But I suspect Hillary will put out a lot of negative ads on this that the average voter will just eat up without thought. Look what happened in Ohio with the NAFTA thing and the 3am thing.

[Hawkowl]

49. Perhaps Hillary will have to revisit Whitewater?

Moron. It is about as likely. It is absolutely disgusting that Hilbots have become Rovians. It is amazing that I now have to choose between vacuous "cultists" and truly slime eating, shit slinging Hilbot Rovians.

I am forced to side with the cultists. Hillary has truly crossed the line into the dark side of self-aggrandizement and a scorched earth campaign.

[SKKY]

59. Again, you're spewing more garbage...

...he has not be named as a potential witness, and Patrick Fitzgerald (Sound familiar?) has already looked at Obamas involvement into this Rezko nonsense. His verdict? Nada. Nothing. Zilch. Obama did nothing wrong, did nothing illegal. Next?

[jlake]

61. lol. We shall see. I *Know* That Obama is a dirty Chicago politician.

The question is whether he will be caught.... and I think he will.

[SKKY]

62. Are you going to provide any *proof*, or just keep spewing garbage?

We'd all like to see some facts.

[JackORoses]

56. you just don't accept reality until it runs you over, do you?

Prepare to be trampled.

[jlake]

57. lol to the max!

[SKKY]

58. And what poll are you looking at? Every one I've seen is contradictory to what...

...you're saying here.

[jlake]

63. I'm looking at the people around me here on the ground.

All Hilly supporters are firm. Obama supporters are waffling... and the undecideds are going to break for Hill.
MASSIVE blowout on the way.

[SKKY]

64. I wish I could have some of what you're having...

...on 2nd thought, perhaps not.

[DemzRock]

2. I don't think she's going after a huge increase in delegates now...

I think she is going for a brokered convention - with all the big states on her side, it may be a good argument for her.

Can't win the GE without those big states guys.

[yellerpup]

3. Can't win those big states with the independents

voting for anyone besides Hillary, either.

[ButterflyBlood]

5. Primary victories don't equal GE victories

Hillary polls much worse against McCain. That's the issue. Plus some of those big states (California, New York) aren't going to vote for McCain in any circumstance.

[Pab Sungenis]

12. Not much worse

SurveyUSA's maps have her with only four fewer EV's than Obama in matchups with McCain. However, I think Hillary would spur more Republican turnout than Obama would.

[ButterflyBlood]

17. I'm not buying those

It appears they just polled the entire country and took the subsample from each state rather than poll each state with a decent sample separately. The fact that Obama wins North Dakota is enough proof of this.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

26. DIDN'T CLINTON FAIL TO FILE A FULL SLATE OF DELEGATES?

Has Clinton ever corrected this, or does she go into PA without full slate?

Daily Kos: UPDATE: Clinton Fails to File Full Delegate Slate in ...Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign failed to file a full slate of ...... Don't even bother sending in delegates. Disenfranchise the voter as much as ...
www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/19/102051/480/77/459625 - 206k - Cached - Similar pages

Daily Kos: Clinton won't field full PA delegate slate
This at a time when Clinton's campaign, like Barack Obama's - which did file a full slate in the state - hoards delegates like diamonds. Pennsylvania voters ...
www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/19/12534/2925/1008/459687

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

27. Clinton short about 10 percent of slate of delegates???????

Tue, Feb. 19, 2008


John Baer: How Pa. extension benefited Clinton

...It appears Clinton came up 10 or 11 candidates short across a number of congressional districts, including two in Philadelphia.

That's close to 10 percent of the 103 delegates to be decided by voters.

It appears the shortage would've been double that if Rendell hadn't extended last week's candidate filing deadline by a day and a half, ostensibly due to bad weather.


http://www.philly.com/philly/hp/news_update/15759032.html

[thoughtcrime1984]

18. He'd win the big states just as well or better vs. McCain

He may also bring in smaller purple states, where Hillary would not. The difference in opponent would produce different results, not sure why some can't see that. I cannot be convinced that he'd lose CA, NY, MA, NJ. She wouldn't necessarily win OH in the GE or FL. He matches up better with McCain in the GE, no question. With the war being so unpopular, and McCain representing the continuation of Bush policy, Obama provides the perfect contrast as someone who had the foresight to be against it from the start. Hillary would lose any BS "experience" contest vs. McCain just as Obama would.

[Cha]

25. hilary can eat dust...

we'll see how far she takes the Dem party down with bottom feeding.

[totodeinhere]

39. The problem with that analysis is that

almost all of those big states that Hillary won are very blue states that Obama would win in the general anyway even though he lost in the primary.

[ButterflyBlood]

47. Exactly.

Is Hillary going to seriously try to argue that we have to nominate her to stop McCain from winning New York?

[Barack_America]

4. I am PA-2!! Hillary will be slaughtered here!

This is PA-2

-Large African American neighborhoods: most of West Philly, much of North Philly, Gray's Ferry, etc.
-HUGE Youth vote: UPenn, Drexel, USP, etc.
-And the rest: Highly educated white folks and extreme liberals

PA-1 is admittedly more of a concern because it includes working class areas in South Philly and NE Philly. But it DOES include parts of W. Philly, including a ward that belongs to my neighborhood group. So we'll be focusing heavily on voter reg there. :)

[skooooo]

6. Gobama!

GOTV in your district!! :-)

[ButterflyBlood]

23. I hope you work well on Obama's GOTV

You got 7 weeks to get as many registered as possible. Hopefully you can pull through for us.

[Barack_America]

52. We've actually got 18 days to get people registered.

But we're on it. There are voter registration events scheduled across the city. I'm going to one today (in Philly's most crucial ward in PA-1) and another tomorrow (back in the good ol' PA-2).

[geek tragedy]

7. Most of PA is Appalachian, and those folks don't vote

for Obama. In those districts, she'll get 3-1 splits.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

8. B-but... I read on DU that she would net 100 delegates in PA!

Could they have been lying? :cry:

[Dogmudgeon]

9. PA 6-8 and 13

I live in District 8, and I am very familiar with the Philly 'burbs. Clinton maintains a very strong presence here, but there are considerable fertile fields for Obama to develop. The divisions between non-Black "Beer voters" and "Wine voters" are likely to be more clearly visible than in most states.

Black Philadelphia is an African-American cultural and intellectual center. They are fiercely independent-minded but/and will almost surely go 88%-12% for Obama, the usual kind of split we've seen in races between a black and a white Democrat. Several A-A leaders have already endorsed Hillary, and a large number also want to see a C-O or O-C "dream team" no matter what side they are on. The Blacks, at least the ones me and my family know, are quite fond of BOTH the candidates. It's a win-win situation for them, no matter who wins.

The white Democrats here are extremely strong Clinton supporters. As Tweety, also a Pennsylvanian, is so fond of saying, Pennsylvania is a big "Beer" state -- though we also have the second or third largest wine production in the USA. Make of that what you will!

So in 6-8 and 13, I'd be inclined to reverse your estimates, though 6 (Chester county) will be stronger for Obama and 8 (Bucks county) stronger for Hillary. 13 (Montgomery county) is probably Obama's best, with working-class blacks AND affluent whites, though the large Jewish community in 13 will vote strongly for Hillary.

But the center of the state is incredibly racist, much more so than in most of the South (where that stereotype no longer holds strongly), even the Democrats, though they also hate Hillary, so that one is tough to say. I think in the general election, McCain will get those districts without breaking a sweat.

I'd say that 11 and 15 will be pretty good for Obama, and 2 will be much better for Hillary than you estimate. There are a lot of Black folks and several colleges in 11 and 15 (Allentown), and 2 is the working-class White Northeast and Black North Philadelphia; the white area is already strongly organized because of city politics, but the black area is extremely poor and notoriously difficult to organize, though it has a large community activist presence. Perhaps Team Obama can turn its political participation around. I think it will be 5-4 for Obama, possibly 6-3, but 7-2 might be asking too much, even with a flaccid effort from Hillary.

I am much less familiar with the Pittsburgh area. It is somewhat similar to Ohio, though the "Af-Am" population is smaller. None the less, there are big colleges (for instance, CMU) and other golden opportunities waiting for Obama. And if Obama wins or puts up a strong fight, it will be on the strength of his organization's planning and recruitment, which has been superb.

For a more detailed analysis, I'd have to spend several hours with voting and population maps. And I may do just that, so I may come to revise my ideas, which have been formed by 30 years of observing PA politics, but which are still quite imperfect, and do not take recent voting into account. (I was inactive in ground-level politics in 2004 and 2006 due to family matters -- DU was my political arena.) For example, a lot of Latinos have moved into Allentown since 1990, and there has been a strong Black presence forming in the suburbs. There is also a huge amount of anti-Latino racism taking root in the northern (White) parts of 6, 8, 12, 16, and all of 11 and 15, so expect immigration issues to "inform the conversation".

But Pennsylvania will indeed put a significant dent in Obama's lead unless Obama fields a much stronger ground organization than Hillary -- and that's one of the areas that Hillary has been concentrating on lately. The competition will first have to be waged organizationally. This is clearly Team Obama's strong suit. But also note, there will be enough time for the ebb and flow of news to affect both candidates much more strongly than any time previously, and that will be a complete crapshoot unless the press decides to stake out another position.

It is a good thing that we've got Annenberg and Quinnipiac around -- there will be no lack of analysis.

And we've got seven weeks.

Excellent thread; thanks for posting it!

--p!

[ButterflyBlood]

16. I see no way PA-2 can be only 5-4

To get 6 delegates Obama needs only about 61%, which is actually the black population of the district. Holding Obama to only 5 delegates would require that either A LOT of blacks stay home or the whites vote for Hillary big time, which in PA-2 is unlikely, the whites favor Obama unlike PA-1.

[Bread and Circus]

10. Thanks and I'd like to add if they "Replay" Florida and Michigan:

She will win Florida but resoundly lose Michigan. I doubt she will make up delegates if they rerun these two states.

BTW Michigan is my home state and I have to date been denied the right to vote for the candidate of my choice.

[Kermit77]

11. If she doesn't steal PA like she stole Harlem

Let's hope that the Clintons don't steal PA like they stole Harlem. Remember in some Harlem districts they reported zero votes for Obama. We know that was a total fraud. Obama needs to get poll monitors in Pennsylvania on election day.

[Pab Sungenis]

13. Those were unofficial results

reported to the media, and weren't the official tallies used to calculate delegates.

Still shifty, but she didn't steal delegates from Harlem.

[JimGinPA]

14. I've Been Saying For A While PA Will Be More Of A Delegate Split Than A Big Win For HRC

HRC's supporters at DU pay too much attention to Tweety & a lot of the other M$M pundits who think PA is going to somehow going to be an easy win for her.

[Barack_America]

15. JimGinPA, which CD are you in? n/t

[JimGinPA]

32. Good Ole Big Red #16

:hi:

[ExFreeper4Obama]

19. This is exactly what I've been saying that past 2 days

Clinton will net a paltry 5 delegates from March 4. Obama will crush Clinton in Wyoming and Mississipi erasing her gains made on March 4 and then some. Even if Clinton wins PA by a good amount, she will be back to where she war before March 4 and the math will be even tougher. Its over for her.

[ButterflyBlood]

20. And 2 weeks after PA, we have NC

The last big state and Obama is favored. Hillary has a few states where she's favored after that (most notably West Virginia and Kentucky) but so does Obama. She might gain a few delegates on him, but she's not going to get anywhere near his lead.

[Flabbergasted]

21. He could very well win Penn.

[Cha]

29. 'Cause of Philly and all the big

guns are going to be out campaigning for him 'cause it's crunch time?

[smalll]

22. "Obama could very well cancel out Pennsylvania's margin with Wyoming!"

And you don't see anything wrong with this? What ever happened to one person, one vote? What ever happened to DEMOCRACY?

You Obamatrons aren't 21st century, you're 18th century! Rotten boroughs for a new millenium!

[scheming daemons]

24. The system was JUST FINE with you when Bill was winning in '92 and '96, I bet.....

[neverforget]

33. Is Hillary giving up the Nevada Caucus votes? Didn't think so.

Quit bitching and get out the vote for your candidate.

[ORDem]

30. Yeah, but you're preachin' to the choir here on DU (mostly). The Hillbots

have stuffed cotton in their ears and have the blinders on, so they don't believe it. And they call Obama supporters deluded????

ROTFLMAO

:rofl:

[ButterflyBlood]

44. I figure I'll give numbers to their nothing

So far I have yet to see a Hillary supporter outline a scenario where she mathematically can win the nomination. All I've seen is vague talk about how they have faith and she can do it, Yes She Can!

And they accuse Obama of speaking only in platitudes with no substance.

[BenDavid]

35. So, you obamanots have proved our point....This primary is all

about RACE! WOW and us hrc supporters have been right all along and we were right about the following too....
These last 60 days have been the most hateful.Gee, I wonder - who started that ball rolling? Who was it that got us to stop fighting the Bush bastards so we could fight each other? Who gained power by splitting the party and getting Democrats to fight Democrats?

The answer to all three questions are obama and his campaign......

We had the White House won about 90 days ago, but a fresh-faced newcomer might've gotten an itch for power. But we had this race won, and Obama stepped in "to unite us." uh huh Look at us now..It is come down on the obamna side about RACE!

[Blondiegrrl]

40. Shhhhh! Let them live in their little world of denial for a bit longer.

In a few months, the reality will hit.

[BringBigDogBack]

42. kicking for a reality check.

thanks for the post.

[grantcart]

45. All of this first class district by districtt analysis - is this still DU?

Just to put PA in perspective Obama has picked up 11 Superdelegates this week alone.

I am bookkeeping this thank you so much

[ButterflyBlood]

46. I plan on doing one of these for every upcoming state actually

Stay tuned...

[grantcart]

48. where do you find the source material for district by district

analysis?

Here is an interesting question?

What are the breakdowns of the remaining districts, how many 2,3,4,5,6,7,8 delegate districts are there left?

If all of the 2 districts split 1-1 and the 3 districts split 2-1 etc. etc. If she even took all of the remaining big districts by 70% how many delegates could she get back. I am guessing it would be very few.

[ButterflyBlood]

53. I use the census for demographic stats

You can look up district info here: fastfacts.census.gov/

And this site for the number of delegates: www.thegreenpapers.com

There are no more 2 delegate districts, and there was only one total, one in Texas (which bases its numbers off state senate districts, not congressional)

I also believe this one in PA is the last 3 delegate district. Most in North Carolina are 5 or 6 (there is one 4 and one 8), Indiana has one 6, three 4 and four 5. Oregon has three 6, one 5 and one 8. West Virginia's are all 6. Kentucky has two 4, two 5, one 6 and one 7. Puerto Rico uses districts based on their legislature, and all are 4 except for one 5. Montana and South Dakota are at large so district figures are meaningless.

[grantcart]

55. i couldn't find anything on the site that went to how many delegates there are per district

[ButterflyBlood]

65. Scroll about halfway down the front page

There's a box with two sections in it, one that says "Democratic Presidential Nominating Process" and "Republican Presidential Nominating Process". All the states are listed under each section. Just click on the state you want under "Democratic Presidential Nominating Process" and at it has all the info near the bottom of the page just above the links section.

[not_too_L8]

51. Nice post! can i link to this?....K&R

[ButterflyBlood]

54. Go ahead

nt

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

60. The math is not to figure out. Hillary has lost and the longer she stays in . . .

the harder it will be for us to win in November. It's so obvious she's already campaigning for 2012 after she tarnishes Obama in hope he'll lose. Got bad news for you Hillary: ain't gonna happen. Obama can take all the slings and arrows you got. The American people can see through your lies and deception, just as they will see through the Swiftboaters you'll unleash on him after you lose the nomination.

[Eurobabe]

66. PA 6 here, it's going Obama

Even the Republicans out there are warming to Obama. If it is Hillary, the district will go to McLame.