Obama will have all the advantages at the Denver convention

[Altair]

The Denver convention will basically be a giant caucus- why does Hillary think she can work things to her advantage there? Every other time that Obama and Hillary supporters have come face to face to argue in favor of their candidates, Obama has prevailed. The Obama supporters seem to be the alpha dogs whenever they come into contact with Hillary supporters.

Obama will have numerous other advantages in Denver as well:

1. A lead in pledged delegates.

2. The sensitivity of the Democratic party to perceptions of racism if the first viable African-American candidate is denied the nomination even though he has more pledged delegates.

3. The demographic makeup of the superdelegates. These - especially the uncommitted ones - are largely highly educated white men- Obama's demographic. We act like superdelegates are purely political creatures, and they largely are, but they have their own personal preferences as well. And highly educated white men nationwide strongly prefer Obama so it's a pretty safe bet that a lot of the superdelegates do as well.

4. The far greater enthusiasm of Obama supporters, which will no doubt lead many of them to head to Denver to protest in favor of his lead in pledged delegates being upheld. This is compounded by the fact that the Denver convention is right smack in the heart of the area where Obama ran up his 70-30 caucus wins. I bet the same folks who showed up to Caucus for him in Colorado, Kansas, etc will show up at the convention. Not many of Hillary's blue collar supporters in Ohio or Hispanics from Texas will make the trip. If the convention were in Pennsylvania or Ohio then Hillary could count on her local blue collar supporters, but not in Denver.

5. Nancy Pelosi will be the chair of the DNC convention in Denver, and she is obviously an Obama supporter based on her past statements and the fact that all of her close political allies in the House have endorsed Obama. I suspect Howard Dean is as well, knowing his Iraq War position and his being a good Vermonter.

6. Obama has more of the media on his side- I can already hear Keith Olbermann snarling in rage as Hillary makes her move to try to win with superdelegates.

All of the above can easily be predicted in advance, so why would the Democratic party even let it get this far? But if it does go to Denver, Obama will have the deck heavily stacked in his favor.

[Tom Rinaldo]

1. This will be over before July

Based on how our candidates hold up, whether their messages hold up, who gains strong momentum, who the national polls are swinging strongly toward, etc. Party leaders and Super Delegates will make sure we have a nominee by some time in June by the latest. Unless Clinton really outperforms Obama they will give the nomination to Obama. If Clinton really outperforms Obama in these final months, they may give it her if the perception is that Obama is fading. If Obama holds his own in the eyes of the public from here on out he will be the nominee. If not he won't be.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

4. WTF!

I agree with you.

:wtf:

[leftofcool]

2. perceptions of racism if the first viable African-America

This is where Obama's problem is. You are assuming that he should be nominated so Americans/Clinton supporters won't be seen as racist. You are also assuming super delegates should vote for Obama so they won't appear racist instead of voting for who they believe is the most viable candidate. This is a Bill O'Reilly talking point and exactly what he said last night.

[Altair]

3. Most viable? He has done better than Hillary in 98% of GE polls

over the last year. And he will have more pledged delegates so they won't be giving him anything because of race- he will have earned it.

[jefferson_dem]

5. Don't forget Obama has support of the Liberal Lion" Ted Kennedy and last election's standard-bearer.

(Kerry).

Also, payback may be hell on ClintonInc. There was a story on NPR a few weeks ago about how many party establishment types are fucking sick and tired of being used as pawns in the ClintonInc's games. This may be the chance to stick the figurative knife in its back. Gore just might step in and put a lid on their fucking shenanigans come convention time.

The deck is clearly stacked against Hillary.

[Tarc]

6. A lot of partisan cards in there. Do you have enough to make a full deck yet?

1. This is pretty much a given, but it will only be in the 50-75 range. A tie, for all intents and purposes.

2. Playing the race card, no further exposition on this tripe is needed.

3. Idle speculation and conjecture. After his stumbling this week, they have been given a moment of pause to cnsider just which one is presidential material and which is not ready for prime time.

4. Playing the class card. The fact that Obama supports can bring their lattes wit hthem and cheer while Clinton supporters head to the 3rd shift so they can pay the rent tomorrow has precisely zero effect on what will happen at the convention.

5. Nancy Pelosi will be the chair of the DNC convention in Denver, and she is obviously an Obama supporter based on her past statements and the fact that all of her close political allies in the House have endorsed Obama. I suspect Howard Dean is as well, knowing his Iraq War position and his being a good Vermonter.

6. Playing the media card. They have finally started to wake up a bit and taking a fresher look at the Boy Wonder.

[Dogmudgeon]

7. There are two Nightmare Wild Cards for Obama.

1. If Obama makes one or more critical blunders. Hillary is also not immune to this risk, but Obama's relative lack of electoral chops and Michelle's unrestrained manner make this a much greater risk for Team-O than Team-C. Message discipline will become much more important for Obama, in spite of the fact that he has attacked Hillary as being a political "machine" because of this.

2. If Obama has more pledged delegates and Hillary has more actual votes, it will throw it back to the superdelegates. Obama is already treading a fine line with the FL/MI primary issue. At this point, Obama is ahead by 5-10% with the delegates but half that with the popular vote. No matter how strenuously he cites the rules, it could still play out as "Obama wins on a technicality, but more people want Hillary -- the process is corrupt!" So Obama is going to have to start going after voter numbers as well as delegate numbers.

Hillary, as the presumptive loser and scorned by the Commentariat, has nowhere to go but up. People expect her to fail and want her to be evil. But the voters will magnify any pleasant surprises and damp the unpleasant ones. Obama, on the other hand, is seen as being the standard-bearer of all that is good; bad behavior will hit him much harder, and public virtue will be expected, not lauded.

Politics is unfair. Ask Hillary Clinton. Ask Barack Obama himself. Ask Al Gore.

--p!