Rasmussen- Pennsylvania -The Hill 52% Obama 37%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

In Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton has opened a fifteen percentage point lead over Barack Obama. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Clinton attracting 52% of the vote while Obama earns 37%.

In late February, before Clinton’s comeback victories in Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island, the former First Lady’s lead in the Keystone State was just four percentage points. The big difference between that poll and the current result is found a among men. Clinton now leads by seventeen percentage points among women and eleven among men. In the previous survey, she was ahead by fifteen points among women but trails by fourteen among men.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary

[geek tragedy]

1. I am a freaking genius.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4924270&mesg_id=4925228

[spooky3]

42. congrats! you nailed it!

[Deep13]

2. Ohio, Penna. & Florida...

...we need to win two of them in November and we already pissed off FL.

[Skwmom]

10. Hmm... and if the black vote stays home in OH, PA, and FL just exactly how are

we going to win?

Anyone????????

[leftofcool]

15. So you are speaking for all Black People?

All of them will stay home?

[Deep13]

21. Don't know. I just know we need two of those states.

All three would be insurance against R. gains in a barely blue state.

[bellasgrams]

33. What if the white vote stays home in Nov? Do we have to have

another Civil War?

[Zynx]

What if we have a problem with rural and industrial white voters?

I'm just throwing that one out there though it is probably equally absurd. We cannot be held hostage by individual segments of our party.

[elixir]

75. Thank you, it needed to be said. Interesting OpEd in Boston Globe today by Tom Payne...

hinting that Hillary should step aside should she not have the lead in delegates, votes and states but has the superdelegates. I don't totally disagree with the reasoning but I find the premise that blacks will think the Man is keeping them down. Give me a f$*#ing break. The Man's been keeping a lot of people down, blacks included.


"Democrats must step lightly. If Obama is ahead in delegates, votes, and states and doesn't get the nomination because of the superdelegates, black Americans will see this as just another way the Man holds them down. They will stay home in droves on Nov. 4. Hello, President McCain."


http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/03/06/clinton_shows_her_chutzpah/

[Beacool]

81. That's as bad as saying that if Obama wins the nomination

all whites will stay home.

:(

[billbuckhead]

85. And if working class whites and Hispanics stay home we also lose

In fact, many working class whites and Hispanics will vote for McCain to punish the Democratic party.

[Larkspur]

37. FL broke the primary rules

FL voters should be pissed at their state leaders who pushed their primary dates up. FL state leaders screwed their own people.

[Deep13]

46. FL did not break the rules, the officials did.

That is not a good enough reason either to disenfranchise the voters or to piss off a major swing-state this fall.

[wileedog]

63. It was decided a long time ago

to 'disenfranchise' those voters. The time to argue against it was then, not now.

Or did FL just think Dean was bluffing?

[Deep13]

68. I don't care if he was or not. nt

[Larkspur]

84. Yes, the Clintonistas and Republicans thought Dean was bluffing or could be

pressured or bypassed. But the good doctor is standing by the rules. Thank Goddess for Howard Dean!! Now we know why the Clintonistas wanted to remove Howard Dean from the chairmanship of the DNC. They wanted to screw us little Democrats of a legitimate selection process and coronate Hillary whether we wanted her or not.

[D-Sooner]

65. Penna...?

[Deep13]

72. A long, long time ago before ZIP codes and 2-letter abbreviations...

...states had more or less standard abbreviations. Penna. means Pennsylvania. I should have spelled that out because an abbreviation that starts with "Penn" could be any state at all.

[Altair]

3. Expected after Ohio. Obama should turn expectations way down in PA, noting

that it is a closed Democratic primary so he can't rely on indepedents, who will be able to vote in the general election.

[NightWatcher]

8. but this time, Rush cant have repukes vote for Hillary either

I think that will cancel out the 'independent factor' and the state will be within 10 points either way. Still with a 20 point victory, Hillary will not catch up to Obama's delegate count.

[surfermaw]

91. Nightwatcher , don't you know by now Hillary is the last thing Rush wants to see

[spinbaby]

13. There's a huge push to register more Democrats

The Obama campaign is targeting independents and setting up shop to register new Democrats in places like coffee shops. No matter which way the race goes, this will benefit our side come November. Don't know if Clinton's campaign is doing the same.

[Altair]

16. I'm just talking about the perception game- make everyone EXPECT a Hillary win

in PA. That way, it won't be seen as a huge momentum shift, just one of her states voting for her as expected.

After Ohio and all the effort he put in there, there's no reason to expect a better result in PA.

[smalll]

89. LOL -- "in places like coffee shops"

From what I gather, there aren't nearly enough latte liberals in PA to turn this around for the O-man. He certainly has the right to try to ensure that every last one of them is registered though.

[smalll]

90. (dupe) /nt

[ginnyinWI]

47. Time is on Obama's side.

When he has enough time to campaign in a state, he raises his numbers. I think he should be able to raise his % up to 45 at least, given the weeks he's got and the focus on only the one state. And that's all he needs--43% in each remaining state--to win the nomination.

[Colobo]

4. Six weeks to go.

[book_worm]

5. Seven weeks and the Hill's margin will fall.

In the meanwhile I'll enjoy Obama victories this week in Wyoming and Mississippi and his semi-victory in Texas.

[underpants]

26. The thing the Hillary fans like to ignore about FL and MICH is Obama's ability to campaign

both in the organization and his personal ability.

One state. 7 weeks. History would indicate that at best Hillary ties PA. We'll see.

[rodeodance]

32. ha ha--the is why it is 3:1 last Tues. HILLARY has the MOJO

[underpants]

50. +12?

Yeah I know it is Fox but you could find other sources reporting the same

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/03/05/democratic-nomination-battle-now-focuses-on-wyoming/

She may have won 3 of 4 but she needed to win by larger margins at this point.

Wins yes (are they actually done counting?) but field goals don't do when you need touchdowns

just saying

[rodeodance]

56. Hillary is good at the 2-minute game--live Brett Farve.

[CyberPieHole]

66. So, what happened to Obama's "campaign" in Ohio, RI, and Texas?

:evilgrin:

[zonkers]

69. Oh please. He erased a double digit in texas in 2 weeks.

[CyberPieHole]

79. Yeah, he erased his own double digit lead in two weeks...

I hope Clinton keeps the attacks up. She has nothing to lose and everything to gain. America needs to wake up and see Obama for the charlatan that he is.

[Nia Zuri]

93. He never had a double digit lead in Texas

She had a huge lead in TX which evaporated. She would not have won were it not for the Ruch listeners following orders

[NJSecularist]

6. Who is "The Hill"?

[Deep13]

23. The place where it's still just a bill.

[chitty]

51. Without a

doubt the stupidest nickname I have ever heard.

I really think you ought to reflect on that moniker.

[Altair]

7. I was polled by Rasmussen last night in Mississippi, by the way ...

be looking for a MS poll from them.

They use a computerized system- a female voice asking questions which you give touch-tone responses to.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

9. 15% short of what she needs.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. She Will Win PA, IN, WV, KY, PR, And Revotes In FL And MI

She will have a half million plus pop vote lead and will be trailing by a couple of dozen delegates... It's up to the Supers then to decide...

If they screw her and the half the Democratic party that supports her some will vote for McCain and some will stay home...

Are you willing to gamble that Obama's Republican friends can make up the difference?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

35. 500,000 pop vote lead?

Highly doubtful.

Even a pop vote lead at all is questionable.

We'll see.

[onenote]

71. a re-vote in Michigan will be a lot closer than you think

Michigan has a higher percentage of African American voters than states like Ohio and PA and a lower percentage of voters over the age of 65. If there is a re-vote, it will skew more closely to Obama than you may be expecting.

[Citizen Kang]

86. Keep dreaming

Obama wins NC, MS, OR, SD, WY, MT by wide margins. He'll be within 10% in all of the states Hillary is favored to win. A FL and MI revote would actually be better for Obama. He will close the gap in FL where Edwards was on the ballot and he might even WIN Michigan where he was not on the ballot and where Jesse Jackson won in 1988. Michigan does not have the same demographic as Ohio/Penn.

[thewiseguy]

11. This is actually good for Obama

Even after her victories and the recent negative press he is still down only 15 points there. I expect his numbers to climb back up once he wins Wyoming and Mississippi. :)

[JimGinPA]

12. Yeah, The Gap Closed 12 Points In Two Weeks And Then Spread 15 In One Day?

Hmmm. I don't think the spread will be near that.

[geek tragedy]

18. I'd be happy if he finishes within single digits there.

Central Pennsylvania is like West Virginia, Eastern TN, and Northern Georgia.

And those folks aren't going to vote for a guy named Barack Obama.

[JimGinPA]

25. Actually, Harrisburg, York, Lancaster & Reading Are All In Central PA

He will do better in central PA than a lot of people outside the state believe.

[geek tragedy]

39. Clinton controls the party machine, and independents

can't vote in our primary there.

Sorry, but any Obama supporter who thinks we can win PA has their head in the clouds.

[JimGinPA]

92. LOL - GLad To Know You NY'ers Know More About The Party In PA Than People Who Live Here...

Hint; don't believe everything you hear on the M$M. HRC probably WILL win the popular vote, but she will not gain a significant delegate pickup. Sorry.

[Warbler]

14. Hillary's got it

There's no question that Hillary will win Pennsylvania

[Altair]

17. Yes, and she will pick up about 9 delegates- only needs 141 more

[TomClash]

19. You can have PA by 15

And we'll take the other 10 remaining states.

[geek tragedy]

22. Clinton's going to blow him out in WV and KY too.

And the media's going to portray her as the winner and him as the person who couldn't close the deal.

[Altair]

29. He will win North Carolina and Indiana after Hillary wins PA ... OR is on the same day as KY

so his likely win there will cancel out her KY win. Then they go on to Montana and South Dakota where Obama will win.

So there are good states for both.

[BadgerLaw2010]

30. You seriously think he is going to win Indiana? Been there much?

Indiana = Ohio without the cities.

[Altair]

44. He was up by 15 points in the most recent poll in Indiana ... link

care to reconsider your statement?

http://www.howeypolitics.com/2008/02/25/howey-gauge-poll-obama-leads-hillary-by-15/

[rodeodance]

57. So, it will be a real embarrassment to lose that lead.

[Obamaniac]

48. I've got two words to say about Indiana...

1) GARY.

2) INDIANAPOLIS.

P.S. South Bend and the entire northwest part of Indiana is basically a suburb of Chicago. Obama can definitely win Indiana.

[kmla]

58. Hmmmm. Lived here all my life.

I think he will do just fine.

Hillary? Not so much. Not well liked here, for the most part.

[IsItJustMe]

70. Ever heard of Gary Indiana., Thought not.

[msallied]

73. One of Indiana's most populous cities borders Illinois

[marions ghost]

60. North Carolina

with 134 delegates, second in number to PA's 188 is looking like it will be a key state for Obama.

NC--please get down and GOTV for Obama!

[MattNC]

64. we will! n/t

[marions ghost]

74. go Hurricanes

I believe NC will help bring it in ;) :thumbsup:

[TomClash]

54. We'll see

Hillary's best case scenario is winning PA, KY, WV and PR and that leaves 8 states that Obama will win. And I don't concede any of those 4 states. Do the math - even under her best case scenario, she loses.

[BeyondGeography]

20. I'm so fired up for 6.5 weeks of mostly meaningless Pa. polls

The Hill?

[rodeodance]

27. REC

[Hersheygirl]

28. That's really strange

because I am in the heartland of conservatism and that's not what I'm hearing or seeing. Around here the repugs are so disenchanted with Bush they are leaning towards Obama, mostly because they hate Hillary and don't trust McCain. Also in this area Rendell is a dirty word. Guess they kept their phoning to both ends of the state.

[JimGinPA]

31. Ahhh.. Someone From The Sweetest Place On Earth

:toast:

[jefferson_dem]

34. If those numbers hold, she would net roughly 22 delegates from PA on election day.

I split the undecided evenly, giving Hillary a final total of 57 and Obama 43. Plug that into Slates Delegate Calculator and voila, you end up with 90 PDs for Hillary and 68 for Obama. Of course, this does not take into account the delegate allocation formula used in PA (allocation based on CDs), which would also stand to benefit Obama.

Two points:
1. No way the margin will be as wide as fifteen points on election day.
2. Whatever delegates Hillary nets in PA will be offset by Obama's gains in NC and OR.


Good luck Hillary supporters. You will need it.

[Altair]

38. Obama's campaign said he would lose 9 delegates *at most* in PA

I think you have to trust his math in this regard- Obama has been on the safe/conservative side in making his predictions in the past, knowing full well they can come back to bite you.

Obama will win delegates in the huge black Philly districts and Hillary will get 3-2 splits in a lot of other districts, but she won't win overwhelmingly enough to get to 4-1 splits in any of them.

The system favors inertia- you need a 25 or 30 point win to rack up the big delegate wins, like Obama got in Virginia, Louisiana, and a number of caucuses.

[geek tragedy]

41. They're wrong with regard to Pennsylvania.

It's like Alabama without the black people between Pitt and Philly.

[Altair]

43. With all due respect, that's not the point- it's the delegate math

you need something like 75% of the votes in a district to get a 4-1 delegate split instead of a 3-2 split.

I don't care what state central PA is like- she's not going to get 75% in any district.

[JimGinPA]

45. Way To Regurgitate Something You Heard On TV Without Any Idea Of What You're Talking About

:eyes:

[geek tragedy]

59. I've been to central PA.

How is it different than West Virginia?

[BumRushDaShow]

83. Central PA

includes Harrisburg the state capitol (and its state gov't civil servant support structure) and universities like Penn State. It also includes the Amish/Mennonite community. You cannot broadbrush that area and somehow compare it to WV. I think the stereotyping has gotten more and more out of control. The biggest irony is that Rendell is a carpetbagger who isn't even a native of PA and people just parrot whatever he says. :eyes:

[rodeodance]

36. Good to see --SHE is 11 pts higher with men. Her strong foreign policy is coming into play.

In late February, before Clinton’s comeback victories in Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island, the former First Lady’s lead in the Keystone State was just four percentage points. The big difference between that poll and the current result is found a among men. Clinton now leads by seventeen percentage points among women and eleven among men. In the previous survey, she was ahead by fifteen points among women but trails by fourteen among men.

[Larkspur]

40. What foreigh policy experience?

As First Lady she had NO security clearance to read classified documents or to negotiate with foreign leaders. Having tea with foreign leaders is not doing heavy negotiaion.

Obama needs to point out Hillary's lies about her experience. When he does Hillary's numbers will tank.

[rodeodance]

55. ha ha--

[Mass]

49. SO, these are the expectations. If she does less than that, it will be a failure.

[writes3000]

52. And she will do less than that. n/t

[jefferson_dem]

53. Right. This is the benchmark. Anything less means she did not meet expectations.

Bookmark this post today and roll it out on April 23.

[Tom Joad]

61. Hell ahead in PA,

not surprised.

[AtomicKitten]

62. And when Obama closes the gap and gets close, it will be framed as a huge victory for Clinton.

That's the way the MSM has been reporting these races. Obama covers 30 points but falls short by a couple points in Texas, and it is lauded as a stunning upset. Now what was that about media bias in Obama's favor again? :crazy:

[IsItJustMe]

67. It will be interesting to see those polls after the news gets out about HRC's NAFTAgate hypocracy.

[Dawgs]

76. That's 10% less than what she needs to make a dent in Obama's lead.

[MadBadger]

77. Alright, Obama has seven weeks to close it. He can do it.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

88. NO he Can't...it's a CLOSED Primary....his Rethuglicans can NOT muddy the water there

[Warbler]

78. Can you say "Madame President"?

[Bullet1987]

80. Ummm...Pennsylvania is 7 damn weeks away...nearly two months

Odds are, by then, whatever happens will have little to do with March 4.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

82. Thank God PA has a CLOSED Primary....Obama rethuglicans can Not muddy the water there!

[ElsewheresDaughter]

87. Clinton Cocktail Talk

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1r6GcPqFSo

[amborin]

94. More evidence of Obama disconnect between rhetoric and reality: the charity thing

The Frontrunner
April 25, 2007 Wednesday
Before 2005, Obama's Charitable Giving Lagged Behind National Average

SECTION: NATIONAL CAMPAIGN NEWS
The Chicago Tribune (4/25, Secter, 617K) reports, "Giving, service and compassion are
but the Democratic presidential contender has only recently dug deep into his own pockets to support charitable causes." Obama "has enjoyed a robust household income throughout his political career in the Illinois Senate and the U.S. Senate.

But for most of that time he has reported comparatively little by national standards in charitable contributions on his tax returns, records released by Obama show." Obama's household income "has been inflated the last two years from the proceeds of lucrative book deals he signed shortly before entering the Senate in 2005. He pledged to turn over $200,000 of the book money to charity." On their "just-filed 2006 tax return, Obama and his wife, a hospital administrator, reported taxable income of $983,626 and claimed deductions for $60,307 in charitable donations.

In 2005 they earned a combined $1.65 million and gave away about $77,300." The "national average for charitable giving has long hovered at 2.2 percent of household income, according to the Glenview-based Giving USA Foundation, which tracks trends in philanthropy. Obama tax returns dating to 1997 show he fell well below that benchmark until 2005, the year he arrived in Washington."

[mculator]

95. Dream Ticket

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4927930

[amborin]

96. what a tangled mess Rezko is.....will this get sorted out?

The Sunday Telegraph (LONDON)

January 27, 2008 Sunday

Obama faces questions over ties to 'slum landlord' Democratic hopeful's claims of good judgment undermined by his relationship with a property tycoon donor who faces charges of corruption

BYLINE: PHILIP SHERWELL in Chicago

snip snip

"Mr Rezko was also one of the first to spot the skills of Mr Obama, offering the then Harvard law graduate a job in 1991 and becoming an early financial supporter of the new state legislator, whose inner-city constituency included 11 of his housing projects.
Although Mr Obama makes much of his roots as a community activist in Chicago's poorest districts, he has said he had "no inkling'' that there were problems with Mr Rezko's operations. But the signs should have been easy to spot, according to John Bartlett, of the Chicago-based Metropolitan Tenants' Association.

"The problems with Rezko were far from hidden. They were so bad that the city has had to take him to court. Anyone who wanted to look into Rezko's activities could have learned about them,'' he said.

Mr Obama has recently said that he "wasn't particularly knowledgeable'' about Mr Rezko's activities. Asked if he should have investigated his donor's businesses, Bill Burton, Mr Obama's spokesman, said: "The senator has a long record of successfully fighting to reform ethics and diminish the role of money in politics.'' The reality of US politics is that even at state level, few politicians have the resources to check their donors' backgrounds thoroughly. But when candidates run for the nation's highest office, they find their finances trawled over by the media and their rivals' researchers.

snip

The senator has attempted to head off criticism by admitting that he failed to spot the "red flags'' in pursuing a property deal that raised perceptions of possible impropriety at a time when other Illinois politicians were already turning their backs on Mr Rezko.
snip

Association of Chicago, also expressed surprise at the property deal, saying: "Alarm bells should have been ringing. Everyone knew that Rezko was under investigation and Senator Obama should have expected this scrutiny. The mission is always to follow the money.''

[Gore1FL]

97. If she gets all the undecided votes and takes a few more from Obama

She'll drop the delegate gap to just over 100.

[JorgeTheGood]

98. well of course the polls are

going to give HRC a huge lead with 6 weeks left ... that way, when Obama closes (according to them) the media can say "she had a 15 point lead just x weeks ago".

Otherwise, Obama closing from a 3 point lead to a 2 point lead would be rather non-eventful.

Is Rasmussen still in business ? LOL