Clinton's "Big State" Myth: Why Barack Obama Remains the Most Electable Democrat This Fall

[helderheid]

Posted March 5, 2008 | 05:48 PM (EST)

The Clinton Campaign's post March 4th message is to forget about the delegate count and nominate Hillary because she can win the big states Democrats need in November. That argument simply doesn't hold up to scrutiny. Here's why:

1) Most of the "Big States" she has won are not battleground states in the fall. New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and California are solid blue states where Obama would do as well or better than Clinton in a general election against McCain.

2) Of the states she's won so far, the big exception to this rule is Ohio. Ohio is in fact a critical battleground state where Hillary has demonstrated that she has a leg up among lower income whites and older voters. But the polling also shows that in a general election, Barack offsets this advantage in Ohio among young voters and college-educated independents. In a McCain-Clinton match up the later group could gravitate heavily to McCain in Ohio.

In an Ohio general election, Obama's ability to attract independents and mobilize young and minority voters will trump Clinton's advantages among non-college whites -- a group that will break heavily for either Barack or Hillary against the "free trade" McCain.

Just remember, in Ohio right now, "national security" is a job. The economy and trade -- not "national security" -- will almost certainly continue to be the overriding issues for non-college whites in Ohio this November.

Much more >>>

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-creamer/clintons-big-state-myt_b_90115.html

[kentuck]

1. It puzzles me to why Hillary gave up the delegates in the fly-over states?

Did she think those delegates were not important? Did she not realize that the candidate with the most delegates would be the winner?

[MindMatter]

7. No. It is DLC-think. That's the way their brains work

These are not especially bright people. They surround themselves with old-time, old-style insider politician who think exactly as they do. Immunity from any new ideas.

[TheWraith]

10. She's pursuing the same losing "blue states plus 1" strategy Gore and Kerry used.

It's predicated on the idea that we can't persuade independents or Republicans who don't already agree with us, so we have to just try and grab the tiny percentage of people in the middle who'll be comforted by as bland and formulaic a campaign as possible, and hope that that brings us to 270 electoral votes.

[roguevalley]

11. they have this strategy that if you win x number of big delegate

states you don't have to worry about the rest. witness the post super tuesday debacle. they didn't have a strategy because they only budgeted and worked on that number of states. Fuck the rest. Win these, walk to the white house. that strategy has lost us a few. That is why dean wants to build organizations in all fifty states and why these dimwits with their cherry pick strategy want him out.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

2. Of course it's a myth.

:shrug:

[ProgressiveEconomist]

3. And don't stop at assessing "electability:. To break the stalemate in Congress, we need

a candidate with "coat-tails", to help out Democrats running for Senate and House seats in "red" states.

What good would it do to have just the White House with the most divisive Democrat in memory as President? Most of HRC's big plans would go absolutely nowhere, just as they did under her husband.

[helderheid]

4. I have a huge concern about that as well, but also that she can't win against McCain in the general

in the first place.

[Inuca]

5. A very good, straight-forward analysis n/t

[Scurrilous]

6. K & R

:thumbsup:

[MindMatter]

8. And the other side of that coin is ...

What about the states that Obama won that Clinton didn't even care enough to contest seriously? How many of these can realistically go blue in November? The combination of Obama's freshness and Bush's legacy may be just enough to create the potential for a 35-state win.

Really folks. Wouldn't you feel a hell of a lot better going into the GE season knowing that we don't absolutely have to win both Ohio and Florida?

[msallied]

9. Ohio proved it had soured on Republicans back in 06

And I think they will continue to prove it by going Democrat this fall. I think we're looking at an Electoral landslide for Obama.

[IsItJustMe]

12. Thank you for your educated analysis and your common sence.

[bigbrother05]

13. K and R

[helderheid]

14. k