How Obama Gets to 270 Electoral Votes

[pstans]

As the primary race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton moves on, the question of electability will become more and more important.

This moring at Century of the Common Iowan, I took a look at the 2008 electoral map. Using these numbers, Obama would be at 259 electoral votes by adding up the states that are strong democratic, likely democratic, and lean democratic.

Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes): Lean Democratic ↑
Maine (4 electoral votes*): Lean Democratic ↑
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes): Lean Democratic ↓
Michigan (17 electoral votes): Lean Democratic↑
Minnesota (10 electoral votes): Lean Democratic
Oregon (7 electoral votes): LeanDemocratic
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes): Likely Democratic
Washington (11 electoral votes): Likely Democratic

Obama would then need to win 21 more electoral votes to get to 270 and win the election. Here are the states that are the article considered as toss ups...

Colorado (9 electoral votes): Toss-Up
Virginia (13 electoral votes): Toss-Up ↓
Missouri (11 electoral votes): Toss-Up
Ohio (20 electoral votes): Toss-Up
New Mexico (5 electoral votes): Toss-Up
Iowa (7 electoral votes): Toss-Up

Obama losing Ohio this week has brought some to question if Obama will be able to win Ohio.

By looking at recent poll numbers in these states, Obama would be able to win the nomination without winning Ohio and Florida.

Iowa (7 electoral votes)

Des Moines Register poll on 2/24
Obama 53%
McCain 36%

Survey USA poll on 2/19
Obama 51%
McCain 41%

Rasmussen on 2/21
Obama 44%
McCain 41%

New Mexico (5 electoral votes)

Survey USA poll on 2/19
Obama 55%
McCain 40%

Colorado (9 electoral votes)

Rassmussen on 2/13
Obama 46%
McCain 39%

Virginia (13 electoral votes)
Survey USA poll on 2/19
Obama 51%
McCain 45%

Rasmussen on 2/21
Obama 44%
McCain 49%

Missouri (11 electoral votes)

Survey USA on 2/19
Obama 49%
McCain 43%

Rassmussen on 2/13
Obama 40%
McCain 42%

These poll numbers suggest that Obama would win Iowa (7), Colorado (9), and New Mexico (5). This would give Obama exactly 270 electoral votes.

Obama could still pick up more electoral votes elsewhere. Obama is polling even or slightly ahead of McCain in Virginia, Missouri, and Ohio. In Virginia it looks like Mark Warner will win the Senate race easily and this could help Obama win the state. I wouldn't write off Ohio either. The economy will be a huge issue this election and McCain has even admitted that the economy is a weak issue for his campaign. Obama could win Nevada, where a recent poll had him up by 12%.

It might be true that McCain runs closer to Obama than Clinton in Ohio and Florida. The point to remember that Obama's has the ability to win the nomination without winning these states by being more competitive in many other states.

Obama would expand the map and be more competitive in Red States, including Florida, Mississippi, Arkansas, Kansas, and West Virginia.

From DailyKos...

And if nothing else, Obama would help close the margin in a lot of Red states, forcing cash-strapped Republicans to play defense across something closer to a 50-state strategy than the inevitable 18-state strategy we'll see out of Clinton ... And yes, running tighter in Red states matters. Not only does it build toward the future (the 50-state strategy, of course), but it certainly matters to Democrats running down the ticket.

When you force Republicans to play defense in more areas and couple that with Obama's ability to raise money and the Republicans difficulty raising money this year, Obama might be able to pull out victories (or help pick up Senate and House seats) in red states that have been considered longshots in recent years.

[msallied]

1. I think that he could easily pick up a swing state or two

Including Ohio. Ohio has soured on Republicans big time. The popularity of their Democrat governor is a major case of this. They vote Democrat this year.

[Omega3]

2. he could also pick up

Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Idaho, Utah, Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, or South Carolina.

[leftofcool]

4. Never in a million years

He will never get the southern vote, neither of the Dakotas and sure as hell not Nebraksa or Kansas. It isn't him, they are just repuke states through and through.

[pstans]

7. Nebraksa has proportion electoral votes

Obama could maybe win 1 electoral vote from the 2nd Congressional District in Nebraska that includes Omaha.

[woolldog]

9. Kansas possibly

He's only about 8 points behind McCain there last poll I saw. He has ties to Kansas, and there's a populist streak to KS as well. If they were to even vote for a Dem, Obama would be the kind of Dem they'd vote for...Clinton, not so much.

[pstans]

11. Here's some polling data from Kansas

Kansas (Survey USA) http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=b360f1e0-c0d9-46af-b292-5d4ab0cdd0d9

McCain 50%--44% Obama
McCain 59%--35% Clinton

If Obama would name Sebelluis as VP then it would definitely be in play.

[woolldog]

12. Thanks for that.

it's hard to keep track of all the polls that come out. lol

[suston96]

3. "Obama would then need to win 21 more electoral votes to get to 270 and win the nomination." Huh?

"Electoral votes to win the nomination"? You mean to "win the election" no?

[pstans]

6. Thanks for catching that

I changed nomination to election.

[9119495]

5. Nice work....a rec for this.

[Jersey Devil]

8. Here's a handy electoral college calculator

It's left over from 2004 but it still works and I believe there has been no change in the electoral votes for any state since.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,0,1851284.flash

[fishwax]

10. thanks for posting that--i've been looking for it lately

:thumbsup: