Hillary's lead in Texas is disappearing. She did NOT win Texas

[TexanDem]

http://content.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/results-all.aspx?src=campaign:reprise_google_politics_election+Generic+Politics+Senate+CT

At present the delegate count for the primary portion is 92 delegates Hillary to 91 delegates Obama. Her lead has shrunk. The caucuses will easily overtake that one delegate lead.

Tuesday her lead was 6 delegates -- 96 to 90.
Here's why -- her count in several counties was barely over the next delegate split thresholds. As completed counting keeps coming in, if the final tally drops below that threshold in these areas and the delegates are caculated differently. I had heard she could lose delegates because of this, and apparently that's exactly what's happening.

The media was obviously too quick to call Texas. It will be interesting to see how well the media admits this and announces Obama winner of Texas when the final numbers are finally in.

[seabeyond]

1. obama won two. clinton won two. n/t

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

10. Gee, where I come from, they call that a tie . . . unless, of course, you're using "new math".

[seabeyond]

13. bah hahhaha. i love when i come into a thread, to see what someone said to me, only

to go into laughter, chuckle or a giggle. lol lol. thanks. that was fun

[leftofcool]

2. Primary and caucus

two different things

[KittyWampus]

9. not in Texas. The delegate count is figured via the two parts. But it's one whole

[jenmito]

76. Exactly-TX was called a "prima-caucus." Until Hillary won the primary.

:eyes:

[tritsofme]

3. Clinton is the People's choice.

Whereas Obama is the choice of a strange and arcane delegate selection process.

[MadAndy]

7. She is the repub choice. Teal Tx dems support Obama. eom

[redqueen]

30. So you think the "real" TX Dems were the ones who stayed home,

and only republicans showed up for the caucuses?

Interesting thought process there.

[MadAndy]

39. No. My point was that repugs DIDNT caucus. BO wont the real dem

vote in the caucus. Hillery won the phony dem vote in the primary. Sorry for the confusion.

[redqueen]

41. Oops!

hehehe... that would make more sense, yeah.

:hi:

[Renew Deal]

31. What about fuchsia TX dems?

[nonconformist]

37. Then how come Hillary won the Democratic vote, but Obama won the Republican vote? nt

[redqueen]

44. Rush Limbaugh?

I know he wasn't the only factor, but it'd be asinine to claim his minions had no influence at all. He's VERY popular down here.

[nonconformist]

So, Rush got out the vote for Obama?

Because more Republicans voted for Obama than for Hillary.

Maybe it is because Obama was running lots of ads during Rush's program.

[MadAndy]

52. Why would limbots vote for BO when thier puppet master said vote for Mrs Clinton?

[nonconformist]

53. And yet, they did. nt

[redqueen]

60. Believe it or not, many conservatives actually like Obama more than McCain. (nt)

[redqueen]

56. Republicans voted for Dems for different reasons.

Rush wasn't telling his brain-dead followers to vote for Obama, though.

[Lucinda]

45. According to exit polls - Obama won the Rep vote in TX and Hillary won the Dems

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#TXDEM

Page 4

[trueblue2007]

48. Hillary is NOT the repub choice. I AM A LOYAL DEMOCRAT

I support her. I have been a Democrat since I was 13 years old and LOVED JFK.

I HAVE VOTED DEMOCRAT IN EVERY SINGLE ELECTION SINCE I WAS ABLE TO VOTE. This crap being thrown at us that we are not loyal Democrats because we support Hillary stinks to high heaven.

[Voltaire]

11. And since delegates are the coin of the realm. . .

Being the People's Choice don't mean a whole lot now does it?

[tritsofme]

14. Neither candidate can get to 2025 on pledged delegates alone.

It will come down to which candidate is the choice of the People, through the overall popular vote.

[Political Heretic]

19. No. It will come down to: a) pledged delages b) popular vote c) # states won

d) health of the campaign (financially, image-wise) etc. In that order

If one candidate has all of those things, that candidate will win no matter what the arguments from the other side are.

Right now, Obama is winning all four. We'll see if that changes.

[tritsofme]

43. I mostly agree with you.

However # of states won is an irrelevant statistic, regardless of what happens overall in November, McCain will likely win more states than the Democratic candidate.

But I don't think pledged delegates should weigh more highly than popular vote.

Obviously however if Obama ends with leads in pledged delegates and popular vote, the nomination is his.

[Political Heretic]

58. You might be right on that point.

Though it may possibly be spun into an important statistic.

[Voltaire]

22. Last I checked there was no mechanism for that

But the DNC complaint department is open

[tritsofme]

The mechanism is, SDs can do whatever the hell they want.

However it would certainly be in the best interest of the party to go with the choice of the people, whoever that may be, and not with the candidate that has a small lead in the arcane delegate selection process.

[dansolo]

78. But what if it is a big lead?

Obama could end up with a 150-200 pledged delegate lead. That is not small.

[tritsofme]

79. In that scenario Obama probably wins the popular vote too.

If he doesn't, then it just further highlights the unfairness of delegate allocation.

[melody]

12. I'm so tired of bromides n/t

[Mooney]

THANK YOU

I'm just waiting for someone to say "Today is the first day of the rest of your life."

[melody]

23. They're just waiting for the right time :) n/t

[seabeyond]

17. i was just sure i was a people and hubby too and the tattoo lady at caucus tues night

oh oh oh and the group of nuns looked like people too. oh and the man who voted for the first time in life cause his little 8 year old came to him and asked who he was voting for. he wanted obama. his little girl wanted hillary. i followed him and saw who he voted for

hillary.....

aaaahhhhh he tok care of his little girl

we were all people i assure you

[Justitia]

18. LOL, the "people" came out in droves for Obama at my caucus, and stayed FOUR HOURS for him.

You are clueless as to how our prima-caucus works.

[babylonsister]

25. Except that the last time I looked, Obama is also ahead in the popular vote:

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/03/obama_still_has_popular_vote_l.php

[redqueen]

34. The people who don't prefer her are the people that don't matter.

Or... they're not "real" dems... or... or... something... anything!

*flails arms madly*

[tritsofme]

46. This thread and my comment were about TX.

nt

[TheDoorbellRang]

42. Which unfortunately for Clinton, the Obama people understood

If she can't cope with the strange and arcane subtleties of a state in her own country, then how will she be able to grok the subtleties in those mysterious foreign countries, eh?

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

54. I'm sorry Clinton people have problems understanding caucuses.

But they're just as democratic as primaries.

[txaslftist]

57. It's not so strange and arcane that Obama couldn't figure it out.

But Hillary couldn't?

So much for being "ready on day one".

[HughMoran]

67. Let the little snippy little ignoramus twits play their infantile games

It's pointless to argue with them.

[Eurobabe]

69. Put the meth pipe down...

[JackORoses]

80. actually, Obama leads in the Popular vote nationwide. So he is the People's choice.

[dysfunctional press]

82. overall, obama is the people's choice...

which is why he leads shrillary by over half a million votes so far.

[IsItJustMe]

4. But of course she did. Didn't you hear the msm praise the great come back that HRC made.

:sarcasm:

[thevoiceofreason]

5. USA Today's numbers are bad

Current projections with 40% of the caucuses reporting (they should flood in tomorrow and Monday) shows Clinton +4 in the primary portion, Obama +7 in the caucus portion (projected), net net Obama +3.

[KamaAina]

6. Too late.

It will be interesting to see how well the media admits this and announces Obama winner of Texas when the final numbers are finally in.

Page B24, in six-point agate type.

Obama gets the delegates, but Hillary got the all-important spin 'n' momentum 'n' stuff. :eyes:

[Tesha]

21. Or even 5.5 point... ;-)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agate_(unit_of_measure)

[Benhurst]

8. So much for the delegates and the will of the people. What a joke.

The Texas Two-step strikes again.

[Zachstar]

24. So I guess you want texas to be red come November?

This is why Clinton can no longer become the president in 2008... she alienates just too many people.

[Benhurst]

66. Bullshit. It might very well go red with Hillary.

It probably will if Obama heads up the ticket.

Neither of them gives us much of a chance. But that's what we're left with: The Two Biggest Losers, out of a field of much better qualified candidates, any of whom might have had a chance.

But the people have spoken, sort of, through a baroque and very flawed system.

[Zachstar]

71. It just flew right over your head diddnt it?

Texans do NOT like being told what to do or how anything of theirs sucks. A perfect talking point for people campaigning in Texas can use against the democratic candidate.

But I guess that gets in the way of Caucus and Hybrid bashing with yall.

[Benhurst]

73. Yeah. Real Southerners are much the same.

I guess we should have let the all-so-popular segregation stand in Dixie in the spirit of not telling the majority what to do.

Caucuses are a undemocratic and prevent many, including the disabled, sick, working poor and those serving in the military from participating. Having lived in several backward states, I'm very familiar with the process.

But, hey, if such system is beloved by Texans, who are we to criticize? Look at all that hostility we stirred up in The Lone Star State by pushing integration. If hadn't been for the meddling of liberal Northern Democrats, Texas would undoubtedly still be a blue state, and wouldn't that make us all happy?

Unfortunately, the majority is often wrong, something which our Founding Fathers realized. The Constitution and Bill of Rights used to be there to protect individual and minority rights. But that is all so pre-9/11. Thank God they've been shredded.

In any event, caucuses are undemocratic; but I guess it should come as no surprise a Chicago politician would be able to outmaneuver even a crafty Arkansas one in such an environment, no matter how the people voted.

[Upton]

15. It's all about the delegates

despite what you've been hearing from Clinton supporters.

[Tesha]

The Media *NEVER* makes a mistake.

(Yes, I realize this is an exaggeration.
But not by much.)

Tesha

[nxylas]

49. I see what you've done there

You've confused the word "makes" with the phrase "admits to making". Hope this clears things up :hi:

[Tesha]

77. I was viewing things from the Media's point-of-view. ;-) (NT)

[AZBlue]

16. I'm sure Texas will suddenly become small and unimportant.

Cause you know, she wins ALL the big and important ones.

[tridim]

20. MSNBC just reported these same numbers

and 5 seconds later said "Clinton won 3 of 4 states on Tuesday"

What a freaking scam. Obama is running against Clinton, McCain and the media. Yet he's still winning. That speaks volumes.

[Rageneau]

26. Clinton won the real vote. Obama won the guerilla tactics.

Everyone knows that caucuses favor the young, unemployed, students, those with extra disposable income, and those without family or job responsibilities that prohibit them from taking an entire night off to drive 50 miles just to meet up with all the cool young people they have been getting text messsages from.

Obama wins caucuses, but there are NO caucuses in the GE. There is only the kind of ballot box election in which Hillary has consistently beat Obama in all the large states.

Obama's organization was set up to use caucuses to get ahead. It was a smart and valid strategy, but in no way does it reflect the actual will of the people, or even the will of the majority of registered Democrats (who support Hillary).

Caucuses are easy to "game" if you are set up for it, and easy for Republicans to sneak into and affect the results of. Primary elections, not caucuses, tell us who the people really want -- and Hillary wins those REAL elections.

[Justitia]

29. You are Totally Fucking Clueless about how caucuses work in my state. Bill liked them when he WON

back in '92, '96 by a landslide.

Now that Clinton is losing, it's "guerilla tactics"???

You are talking out of your ass.

[redqueen]

36. How many caucuses have you been to?

Stunning ignorance there...

[snappyturtle]

64. Truly amazing. I was going to point out the errors but I decided

NOT. I won't waste my time. It's not that difficult to understand.

[Voltaire]

38. Again, any complaints about Caucuses

Should be transferred to the individual states. Although the time to complain and change is probably BEFORE THE PRIMARY BEGINS. After that date, it is whining.

[txaslftist]

59. "It was a smart and valid tactic" that Hillary could have employed and didn't.

So she lost. Fair and square.

[nebula]

27. The media aren't interested in facts, only ratings.

[Beregond2]

28. TX

This was obvious Tuesday night. The media just want their story, and to hell with the truth.

[Zachstar]

32. Looking forward to the media doing it's job.

The Clintons did not win Texas and Ohio was a win due to a lie in my view.

After the dust Clears Clinton will not even want to show her face at the convention.

[texastoast]

33. "The media was obviously too quick to call Texas. "

Just like Faux News in 2000.

Except more outlets have jumped on the bandwagon. Putting ratings over facts more and more.

:scared:

[Seabiscuit]

35. The media wasn't counting delegates - they called Texas because Hillary was

continuing to win more and more of the popular vote, and finished with a 100K lead over Obama.

[Benhurst]

65. Yeah, but the popular vote means nothing. That's the Democratic way.

[Catherine Vincent]

40. Bottom line ...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4925807&mesg_id=4925807

[rodeodance]

47. tsk tsk---Newspapers across this land yesterday: Big headlines: Clinton 3:1. Deal is done.

[Gore1FL]

50. Hillary won the equivalence of the Alamo

Despite winning RI, OH and I'll even give her Texas, those battles cost her the nomination.

Like Santa Anna, she pulled a battlefield win but one that cost her the war.

She neglected too many other things to have a real shot at the nomination. If she is Lucky, and I mean Lucky,and manages to close the gap to 50 pledged delegates, she still has to IMPROVE on her current Super Delegate lead by 2%. Realistically, she would be lucky to close the gap to 100 pledged delegates by the convention.

It is going to be hard to convince a majority, much less a big majority of Super delegates to give her a pyrrhic victory.

Except for those win blinders, the out come is clear: Battle won. War lost.

[Window]

51. ..

[depakid]

55. Get over it -your candidate LOST THE PRIMARY

which is where the most people actually vote. That's what the media reported- and well they should have.

[redqueen]

61. Nobody's saying he didn't. They're saying he won the caucus. Which is true.

Why the shouting?

[txaslftist]

62. But won the State. Too sad for Hillary.

[Cha]

68. Sorry, you're so outta sorts..but

what are doing supporting a dino like hilary, anyway?

[depakid]

72. Who said I support Hillary?

That would be my last choice... I just don't like hearing whinging (and I'm not a big fan of caucuses either).

At this point, I think most people put better than even odds that Obama will come out on top, so it doesn't make a lot of sense for folks to worry with this sort of deal.

[Muttocracy]

63. NPR just said same thing (once all caucuses counted it goes to Obama)

but that they'll never overcome the "clinton won TX" stories

[npincus]

70. WAAAAAH! The media is so MEAN to me...

[RoadRage]

74. Well, does she bow out then? Her own husband said she needed both TX AND OH

to stay in the race. So, she loses TX.. does she get out? Nope.. she got her 10 media minutes.. enough to keep on pushing. :eyes:

[jenmito]

75. BEFORE the vote, the media called it a "prima-caucus." AFTER the vote, they said Hillary won the

primary but may not win the caucus, like they're two different things.

[rug]

81. Easy to ignore 120,000 voters, isn't it?

[althecat]

83. KnR

[joshcryer]

84. Clinton cannot win caucuses, it's simple, the caucuses represent a part of the population that...

...cannot elect a woman. Read my sig.

[BzaDem]

85. The media calls states based on the popular vote.

They always have, and they will continue to do so. They were not "too quick to call Texas." You may not like that they use the popular vote in each state (instead of delegates), but they do.