New 50-state matchups from Survey USA

[rox63]

More details here: http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/03/06/new-electoral-maps-to-be-released-today-based-on-30000-just-completed-interviews/

[rug]

1. Either will win.

[rox63]

4. But Obama wins by a bigger, safer margin

And turns a bunch of previously-red states to blue.

[Tom Rinaldo]

6. And loses NJ and PA to McCain

That isn't "safer". We have always counted on both those states.

I think Democrats will ultimately win the West Coast with either candidate, but only win Florida with Clinton.

[Renew Deal]

22. I really doubt he loses either.

They are always called swing states and the Dems always win them big.

[Tom Rinaldo]

30. Not Pennsylvania

Kerry had a very hard time winning PA in 2004, and his wife was the widow of a very popular PA Republican with deep PA roots. Pennsylvania was very tight even so.

And Obama doesn't stand a chance in Florida. Clinton may or may not win there ultimately, but she would force McCain to campaign hard in Florida, both with time and money. Obama running gives McCain a free pass in Florida.

[skipos]

39. Please explain why PA is trending blue in the last 3 presential elections

Partisan voting index (the state compared to the country)

PA '96: 0.67% Democratic
PA '00: 3.66% Democratic
PA '04: 4.96% Democratic

[Hawaii Hiker]

54. Dems to VERY well in Philadelphia & Pittsburgh (and that's where everybody lives)

so though the middle of the state is Nebraska, I think Pit. & Phl. will carry either Clinton or Obama...

PA hasn't gone red since 1988...

[Barack_America]

64. With Obama, the Philly turnout will blow the rest of the state away.

Seriously, we alone are 13% of the state's population. We're 50% African American, tons of students and uber-educated whites, and we are ALL DEMS!

[ronnykmarshall]

81. And don't think Hillary would lose WA and OR.

[karynnj]

47. I don't believe NJ

One thing not in yet is that McCain will be hit on the lobbying and the fact that he has done favors for donors. NJ is very very sensitive to this now and is fed up with many corrupt politicians. When I did canvassing and phonebanking in 2005(GOV), and 2006(Senate) that was the topic brought up the most on a spontaneous basis. (Yeah - I know the jokes about NJ and corruption) Part of McCain's popularity is the undeserved view that he is pretty clean. (Incidentally - it was not raised often in 2004. Though one Republican woman mentioned it in a positive way as why she was going to vote for Kerry.)

[slick8790]

56. Yeah, me neither.

I live in NJ too, and I can tell you I seriously doubt NJ will go Republican.

[earthlover]

52. There is another way of looking at this, Tom

Obama's leads in states is broad enough that he can lose NJ and PA AND STILL WIN! Whereas, if Hillary does not win Florida, something that I think is going to be difficult, she is TOAST!

She doesn't win wa, or, nh. Obama wins VA, nv, co, nd, ties nebraska(1)

Hillary's map scares the hell out of me. I don't think we will win Florida. Also, i think Obama would likely win NJ or PA regardless so there is a potential cushion there....but no cushion in Florida-Or-Bust Clinton.

[Tom Rinaldo]

68. But Clinton's lead is broad enough that she wins even without Washington and Oregon

She also wins without Michigan or New Hampshire. And Obama doesn't win Arkansas or West Virginia. I think both of them are more likely to back Hillary against McCain than it is likely Virginia will support Obama over McCain.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

7. Yes, North Dakota is very safe.

[woolldog]

27. North Dakota is safe

Very low crime rate from what I understand.

Those midwest republicans have more of a populist streak to them than elsewhere. That's why Obama's message resonates with them. ND also has 2 Democratic senators currently. South Dakota has one R and one D.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

45. But people know nothing about him - that's what worries me. What will the Reps come up with?

I would feel much, much better if he had been picked apart by the media. I keep thinking that if he wins the nom. all sorts of things will start coming out - some true and some false. At least with Hillary - we know pretty much everything. She may have a lot of warts - biut we know about them and accept them and she's still up in the polls.

[woolldog]

86. There's nothing there.

Don't you think the Clintons have been trying to dig up dirt on him with their private investigators and D.C. connections? Of course they have. The only thing they could come up with is this Rezko nonsense which is weak, the Weather Underground stuff--which happened when Obama was around 9 or 10 years old, and Michelle Obama's thesis, lol.

He's clean.

[Zynx]

89. 4 whopping EVs. I'm so impressed.

[roguevalley]

74. don't count alaska out yet. we are mired in HUGE repug scandal here.

[writes3000]

2. Fascinating. Thanks for sharing. n/t

[scheming daemons]

3. Proving once again that Obama is better in the GE..... take notes SDs!

[tgnyc]

5. Pretty minor difference.

[avrdream]

16. They showed this on Fox. It is based on polls.

And we all know how accurate the polls have been this cycle. This is in no way PROOF of either candidate being better than the other.

[rox63]

25. Not proof of anything

Just a snapshot of now. But encouraging anyway.

[featherman]

8. No Dem will lose NJ, OR, or WA... nor PA

Oregon and Washington have voted DEM every election since 1984. NJ and PA have been DEM since 1988.

This map will change favorably for the DEM candidate over the next 8 months. McCain just is not that strong a candidate for such a damaged brand name as the GOP.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

17. You are mistaken about PA... it is not at all safe

Yes, it has been blue since 1988, but it's very close state and a very good state for John McCain.

[featherman]

20. I'll give you PA as a tossup and throw in WI

But somehow the DEM usually comes through. I also believe IA will go DEM again.
I agree that Clinton is more likely to win in FL than Obama but either may have a tough road there.

My biggest disagreement with the map (and this changes everything) is Ohio which could be strong for McCain in central and southwest. Opposed to that is a DEM state government from top to bottom for a change and a badly damaged GOP brand name in Ohio. Pretty key to the whole thing.

[rox63]

21. I have a friend from central PA

And she says that Obama would probably lose PA, because the rural mid-section of the state has a lot of racists. But he'd do very well in the urban areas.

[featherman]

46. PA will be tight... historic toss up but very good for us since 1988

and we do have the governorship in Ed Rendell this cycle. I like our chances. The Bush Administration and the GOP have not served PA well in the past 8 years.

[neverforget]

18. As an Oregonian, I agree that WA and OR are safe. Remember when

the Republicans in 2004 were crowing that they would take NJ? Not going to happen. 2008 is a Democratic year.

[ProSense]

Cool! The only thing I completely doubt is McCain winning NJ and PA

He's definitely not winning NJ.

[rox63]

13. I can see McCain possibly winning PA - It's been a swing state for a while

But not NJ. I don't see NJ going red any time soon.

[ProSense]

26. I think recent history goes against him:

Casey destroyed Santorum.

[democrattotheend]

63. 2006 was not a normal year, and president is different from Senate

We have a slight edge in PA but it is in no way safe...it's been one of the "Big Three" in the last 2 presidential elections.

[DerekJ]

9. Nice one

[Alhena]

10. Obama wins Michigan and Hillary loses? Promising for a recount

[woolldog]

32. That's odd, isn't it?

[fadedrose]

80. I noticed that first off

I see where Obama would win over McCain....and that NOW explains our goofy primary where Obama and Edwards were not on the ballot. Hill couldn't take a chance on losing all those delegates in a legitimate primary. Doesn't pass the smell test.. never did.

Explains the rationale of leaving one's name on a ballot when others withdrew...

[DemzRock]

11. Kewl cool kewl! So either one is ahead of McCain right now, eh?

Many thanks for the link.

Also surveyusa has the BEST track record of success lately!

[Inuca]

12. Interesting... and probably not very relevant at this point

NJ going to McCain if Obama is the nominee?!?!? Anything is possible,I guess... And before any Clinton supporters get too excited about this, please notice that nice shade of blue covering all the west coast, and a good portion of the center of the map.

[rox63]

15. And Nebraska has stripes!

:D

[Inuca]

29. I noticed that

very fancy :-).

[rodeodance]

58. nk splits their electoral votes.

[Inuca]

90. I did not know that, thanks n/t

[THUNDER HANDS]

14. so hillary is going to win Florida and Obama is going to lose New Jersey

this is some fine, fine bullshit right there.

[tritsofme]

19. What a cluster-fuck.

Obama won't lose PA and NJ while winning OH, VA, and ND.

These polls are a load of crap.

[Bread and Circus]

23. Even with Hillary and McCain teaming up and outright lying about Obama, he still does better.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

24. Obama wins Arizona?? I'm sorry, I can't believe that.

He's an institution here.

[rox63]

31. That's New Mexico, not Arizona

Both of them lose Arizona to McCain. That's expected.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

40. Are we looking at the same map?

Mine shows AZ in blue for Obama.

[slick8790]

60. Are you sure?

Mine's showing it Red on both.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

62. Okay, it's red now but I swear it was blue before.

Maybe I need glasses. :crazy:

[Greyskye]

61. Help is evidently required

[mrreowwr_kittty]

66. Shut up! I know where AZ is. I live here! I swear the map was blue!

It's red now.

[Greyskye]

78. I'm sorry...

...that you were evidently temporarily colorblind. No need to get snippy.

I also apologize that I was unable to read your mind through the monitor, as you don't state in your profile where you live. Sheesh.

:eyes:

[woolldog]

33. McFly? hello?

anybody home? :rofl:

[mrreowwr_kittty]

41. Of course, I meant McCain is an institution here. nt

[TheWraith]

28. No way we lose PA, MI, or NJ.

Also, I don't believe Clinton takes Florida.

[Tom Rinaldo]

34. We came damn near losing PA in 2004. I campaigned there

Even with John Kerry being married to a woman with a strong connection to Pennsylvania it was a cliff hanger. We lost Florida in 2004 but we made Republicans fight hard for it. If Obama is our nominee they can afford to pretty much take it for granted and direct their resourses to other states; like NJ PA and OH.

[democrattotheend]

65. True, but Obama could put them on the defensive elsewhere

He could target a few states like Kansas and Nebraska that the GOP had planned on taking for granted and make them spend money there. He also looks stronger on the West coast and in other bellweathers like Missouri and Virginia.

[TheWraith]

77. 2004 was an unusual circumstance.

Remember we lost other nominally blue states that year: Wisconsin and Iowa. The fear and terror card isn't going to work as well to sway people this year, and we're going to have a much stronger candidate.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

38. Lived In Florida Since 1970...I'm Not Surprised At All

~

[catgirl]

35. Hillary would lose WA and OR

So Oregon looks good for Obama against Hillary.

[skipos]

36. Obama outperforms Hillary in 33 states, Hillary outperforms Obama in 15 states.

In all, Obama outperforms Clinton in 33 states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oregon, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

Clinton outperforms Obama in 15 states: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and West Virginia.

[mohc]

37. I posted this in the previous post about these maps

There are obvious geographic patterns in where Obama and Clinton differ in support. Obama does better in every state west of the line formed between TX and ND, with the exception of OK where Clinton does better. Obama also fairs better in the Midwest, with the only state Clinton does better being Missouri. But OK and MO both fit into the MidSouth stronghold that Clinton has. Obama fairs better along the south Atlantic seaboard from GA up to DE, but Clinton is favored in FL. Clinton's strength is in the MidSouth and the MidAtlantic, and she does better in WV which joins the two. In New England Clinton fairs better in MA and RI while Obama does better elsewhere. The states Clinton does better in are completely contiguous, coming from FL up through the MidSouth, into the MidAtlantic and then into MA and down to RI. Obama's states have islands of upper New England and CT in the north, the south Atlantic states, and then a large contiguous block of western and Midwestern states.

The EV values of the states they fair better in would be 336-202 for Obama.

Although that seems to put Obama in a more favorable position, I looked closer at the margins. Clinton is not doing as well as Obama in most states, but counter intuitively she is actually more competitive nation wide. There are more states where Clinton is either leading or within 10 points of McCain than states where Obama is in the same position. This is primarily because he is doing far better in the West but far worse in the MidSouth, and the latter has more EV. Obama is also doing better in many states he still is not likely to win and states where neither Clinton or Obama is likely to lose, with Clinton doing better in between. Basically Obama is doing better in Red and Blue states as defined by these polls, with Clinton doing marginally better in the Purple states.

[RoadRage]

42. OMG!! MY STATE HAS STRIPES?!?!?!!

What the hell does that mean? Tie.. to close to call? I will admit - Obama is loved here, and holy crap.. if we can get blood red Nebraska to vote for Obama, i'll be dancing on the roof!

[rox63]

51. The stripes are because NE splits its electoral votes

They say Obama will win 2 out of the 3 votes. Most states are winner-take-all for electoral votes.

[Upton]

43. Map shows only Clinton losing Wa.state

we can't afford that. Our gubernatorial race is expected to be close, we need a winning candidate at the top of the ticket. That winning candidate is Obama.

[JorgeTheGood]

44. No way ...

CO, NM, NV, MA for Obama ??? Someone is dreaming. CA isn't safer for BO either.

[DerekJ]

48. SUSA has been very accurate it's freaky

[book_worm]

49. Barack will win PA in November (and NJ)

[my3boyz]

50. My beautiful purple state (VA) is going to turn BLUE for Obama! nt

[democrattotheend]

67. Woo hoo!

I moved to Virginia a year ago and want nothing more than to turn it blue this year!

[Liquorice]

53. These polls are interesting,

but are all but worthless in predicting anything this far out from the election.

[progressoid]

55. Yikes, that's still pretty scary.

Americans are douchebags.

[Tropics_Dude83]

57. ***Prediction*-Hillary or Barack will win TX

And upset the political world with an earthquake.

TX is proving to be very competitive. Mccain does NOT have a lock.

[WolverineDG]

76. If she would campaign In Texas, yes

but she's already thrown us under the bus (interview with Texas Monthly). At least Barack has shown us that he's willing to put up a fight here.

dg

[TheDonkey]

59. Both maps look legit with possible swings like Hillary will not win FL

imo, but could be wrong. Obama may not win OH but could win PA. Or lose both!

[Barack_America]

71. Obama would lose Ohio and win PA. Hillary will lose FL.

Those are my predictions.

[amborin]

79. Hillary will win Ohio, and Fla

Ohio more crucial

[Barack_America]

82. Can't agree with you on Florida.

Hopefully it's a moot point.

[Barack_America]

69. If Michigan turns red, a piece of my soul will die.

This prediction gives me even more reason to fight for Barack.

[jefferson_dem]

70. Obama would win NJ and probably PA and MO. What's up with Hillary in MI?

n/t

[Barack_America]

75. I can tell you what is up with Hillary in MI...

She is loathed. If our primary had been a real one, that would've been made abundantly clear. I grew up hearing about that "bitch". And I grew up in the most pivotal swing county in the state. There is no doubt in my mind that she loses Michigan. And that would break my heart.

And Obama would definitely win NJ. NJ going red is a total BS prediction.

[cottonseed]

72. Wait! I thought only Hillary wins the big Blue states?

:eyes:

[ronnykmarshall]

83. I wouldn't roll those little peepers if I were you.

Take a look at PA and NJ.

[WritingIsMyReligion]

73. Not surprised that NH would go red for McCain, but it's curious that it would stay blue with Obama.

Maine is blue, of course, but I think McCain would have fair traction here.

[npincus]

84. Ain't happening... Dem turnout (for Obama) will be HUGE

[ProSense]

85. Winning in November: Obama's Electoral Math

Winning in November: Obama's Electoral Math

Of the states which McCain is currently predicted to carry, the race is extremely close in Texas (47%-46%), Florida (47%-45%), North Carolina (47%-45%) and South Carolina (48%-45%). And with Barack as the Democratic candidate, nearly every state west of the Mississippi could be in play:

A lot up for grabs!

[BlueManDude]

87. McCain will beat both easily,.

[printpolitico]

88. pissed off Floridians

the Florida dems have a bone to pick. Don't know if that red actually burns republican or democrats about to explode to right the wrongs of the last election.