Is Bush currently leading (outside margin of error) in ANY blue state?

[dolstein]

Just curious.

[edzontar]

1. Polls in PA have shown Bush with a slight but consistent lead...

In a state like this, it will be a matter of turnout--youth vote, minority vote, city vote--which means Kerry will have to come on very strong in those areas.

I vote in PA, and live in the remote rural pukelands of Central PA.



They love the Shrub here, and I am worried about how it is going to go....

[ps1074]

2. Pennsylvania

Bush 46
Kerry 40

MOE - 4.1%

from last week's Keystone poll

[dolstein]

3. Thanks -- maybe Dems should hope Specter wins the primary

While I believe a Toomey win would make it easier for the Dems to capture this Senate seat, I'd much rather have Toomey's supporters stay home on election day, as payback to Bush for supporting Specter.

[edzontar]

8. This is VERY worrisome..we NEED PA to win.

Rendell is not popular at the moemnt and this is hurting Kerry and the Dems.

[WI_DEM]

4. Wisconsin

The latest Badger Poll had Bush up by six-points which is slightly outside the moe.

[dolstein]

5. Ouch!

That's not a good sign. The Dems need Wisconsin almost as badly as Bush needs Florida.

[ACK]

6. Woops Bush only has 4 point lead for Badger

The latest poll the one before that had 6 points.

Race Republican Democrat Others Pollster Dates MoE
President Bush 49% Kerry 45% other 2% Badger Poll 3/23-31/04 4%
Bush 47% Kerry 41% Nader 5%
Bush 43% Kerry 46% Nader 4% American Research Group 3/23-25 4%
Bush 44% Kerry 48% Nader

[West Coast Democrat]

7. According to Zogby, Kerry is ahead by 5 in the Blue States

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=815

whereas Bush is only ahead by 2 in the the red states....

[dolstein]

9. Zogby's figures are worthless

Electoral votes are awarded on a state-by-state basis, not on a regional basis. Kerry's lead in blue states could be due entirely to a lopsided lead in a few states (e.g., New York, Massachusets). It really doesn't tell us anything about whether particular blue states remain in play. Same for the red state totals.

[zorkpolitics]

10. Check out the State polls

Check out HedgeHog for the latest state by state polls:
http://www.davidwissing.com/bushkerrystate2004.html

Currently Kerry leads in the following swing states:
IA by 10
MI by 10
MN by 12
OR by 5
WA by 6


Bush leads in:
AZ by 9
CO by 9
FL by 8
MO by 7
NV by 11
NH by 3
PA by 6
TN by 11
WI by 6


Both Tied (or ahead by only 1)
NM
OH
WV

Among the swing states there is a clear trend for Kerry in the Pacific (OR, WA) and the Upper Midwest (MN, IA, MI, except WI) Bush in the more Southern states (MO, TN, FL) and Southwest (CO, AZ, NV except NM).

Compared to 2000 Bush is much stronger in FL, PA and WI and weaker in OH, WV, and NH

If those 6 states flip (counting FL as a Gore state in 2000) Bush wins.